CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Analysis
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-10-30. Data as of Q3 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 107.4% | Above industry average |
| FCF Margin | 13.3% | Healthy cash flow |
| Debt/Equity | 0.0x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Strong return on invested capital of 107.4% suggests durable competitive advantages and efficient capital allocation.
Explore CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC earns 107.4% ROIC, Top 5% in Consumer Discretionary
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 107.4% ranks Top 5% in Consumer Discretionary companies (sector median: 8.8%), driven by NOPAT margin of 12.5% combined with asset turnover of 1.3x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-30. Gross margin of 100.0% with operating margin at 16.4% reflects strong pricing power.
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 107.4% | Excellent | Above sector median of 8.8% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 43.6% | Excellent | Efficient use of shareholder equity |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | Excellent | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | 16.4% | Good | Efficient operations |
Cash Flow: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC generates $1.6B FCF at 13.3% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC generated $1.6B in free cash flow (TTM), a 13.3% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Top 5% in Consumer Discretionary. Operating cash flow exceeds net income by 1.4x, indicating high earnings quality. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-30.
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 13.3% | Good | Healthy cash generation |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $1.6B | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 1.4x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC at 0.0x leverage
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x reflects conservative leverage. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-30.
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.0x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
Valuation: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC trades at 34.4x earnings
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC trades at a P/E of 34.4x. Free cash flow yield of 3.0% reflects market expectations for growth.
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.4x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 6.0x | Adequate | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | 3.0% | Adequate | Lower cash yield |
Capital Allocation: CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC returns 3.8% shareholder yield
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's total shareholder yield is 3.8% (dividends + buybacks 3.8%). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-30.
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 3.8% | Good | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Buyback Yield | 3.8% | Good | Active share repurchases |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $2.0B | Good | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 107.4% | Top 5% | 12.3x above |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 13.3% | Top 5% | 4.9x above |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | Top 5% | 2.5x above |
| Operating Margin | 16.4% | Top 25% | 3.5x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 43.6% | Top 25% | 4.1x above |
| P/E Ratio | 34.4x | N/A | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | CMG | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 107.4% | Excellent | Top 5% of sector (median: 8.8%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 13.3% | Good | Top 5% of sector (median: 2.7%) |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | Excellent | Top 5% of sector (median: 39.5%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.0% | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) | 34.4x | Adequate | Growth premium |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 3.0% | Warning | Growth-focused valuation |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 107.4%. This compares above the sector median of 8.8%. An ROIC above 20% indicates exceptional capital efficiency and strong competitive advantages.
Q: What is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's Free Cash Flow Margin?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has a free cash flow margin of 13.3%, generating $1.6 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin between 10-20% represents healthy cash generation for most industries.
Q: Is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC stock overvalued or undervalued?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) trades at a P/E ratio of 34.4x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 6.0x. Free cash flow yield is 3.0%, reflecting growth expectations priced into the stock.
Q: What is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC's revenue and earnings growth?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) grew revenue by 7.3% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 4.6% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: Is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC buying back stock?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) repurchased $2.0 billion of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 3.8%.
Q: How does CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC compare to competitors in Consumer Discretionary?
Compared to other companies in Consumer Discretionary, CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) shows: ROIC of 107.4% is above the sector median of 8.8% (Top 0%). FCF margin of 13.3% exceeds the sector median of 2.7% (Top 3% of sector). Gross margin at 100.0% is 60.5 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Consumer Discretionary companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) shows no major financial warning signs based on current metrics. However, investors should always monitor: 1) Margin compression trends, 2) Cash flow consistency, 3) Debt levels relative to cash generation, and 4) Changes in competitive positioning.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-10-30. TTM metrics as of Q3 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.