Duke Energy CORP (DUK) Stock Analysis
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
Duke Energy CORP faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 5.5% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | -5.3% | Cash flow pressure |
| Debt/Equity | 1.7x | Elevated debt |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
Explore Duke Energy CORP: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: Duke Energy CORP earns 5.5% ROIC, Bottom 50% in Utilities
Duke Energy CORP's trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 5.5% ranks Bottom 50% in Utilities companies (sector median: 5.8%), driven by NOPAT margin of 24.1% combined with asset turnover of 0.2x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. Gross margin of 108.1% with operating margin at 27.2% reflects strong pricing power.
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 5.5% | Warning | Below sector median of 5.8% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 9.6% | Adequate | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 108.1% | Excellent | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | 27.2% | Excellent | Efficient operations |
Cash Flow: Duke Energy CORP generates $-1.7B FCF at -5.3% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
Duke Energy CORP generated $-1.7B in free cash flow (TTM), a -5.3% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Bottom 50% in Utilities. Operating cash flow exceeds net income by 2.5x, indicating high earnings quality. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -5.3% | Red flag | Thin cash margins |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-1.7B | Red flag | Cash burn |
| OCF/Net Income | 2.5x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: Duke Energy CORP at 1.7x leverage
Duke Energy CORP's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7x reflects high leverage. Total debt of $89.8B offset by $363.0M in cash. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 1.7x | Warning | Elevated leverage |
| Net Cash Position | $-89.5B | Warning | Net debt position |
Valuation: Duke Energy CORP trades at 18.5x earnings
Duke Energy CORP trades at a P/E of 18.5x. Free cash flow yield of -1.9% reflects market expectations for growth.
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.5x | Adequate | Reasonable valuation |
| EV/Sales | 5.6x | Adequate | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | -1.9% | Warning | Lower cash yield |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% | Adequate | Meaningful income |
Capital Allocation: Duke Energy CORP returns 3.6% shareholder yield
Duke Energy CORP's total shareholder yield is 3.6% (dividends 3.6% + buybacks). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 3.6% | Good | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $3.3B | Good | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 5.5% | Bottom 50% | 1.0x below |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -5.3% | Bottom 50% | - |
| Gross Margin | 108.1% | Top 25% | 1.7x above |
| Operating Margin | 27.2% | Top 50% | 1.3x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 9.6% | Top 50% | 1.0x above |
| P/E Ratio | 18.5x | N/A | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | DUK | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 5.5% | Warning | Bottom 50% of sector (median: 5.8%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -5.3% | Red flag | Bottom 50% of sector (median: 0.0%) |
| Gross Margin | 108.1% | Excellent | Top 25% of sector (median: 63.3%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 173.3% | Warning | High financial leverage |
| P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) | 18.5x | Adequate | Fair value |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -1.9% | Red flag | Growth-focused valuation |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Duke Energy CORP's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.5%. This compares below the sector median of 5.8%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is Duke Energy CORP's Free Cash Flow Margin?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) has a free cash flow margin of -5.3%, generating $-1.7 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. Negative free cash flow means the company is consuming cash, which may require financing.
Q: Is Duke Energy CORP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) trades at a P/E ratio of 18.5x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 5.6x.
Q: Does Duke Energy CORP pay a dividend?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.6%. Including share buybacks, the total shareholder yield is 3.6%. This yield is moderate, suggesting a balance between income and growth reinvestment.
Q: How much debt does Duke Energy CORP have?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7x with total debt of $89.8 billion. Net debt position is $89.5 billion.
Q: What is Duke Energy CORP's revenue and earnings growth?
Duke Energy CORP (DUK) grew revenue by 5.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 10.7% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: How does Duke Energy CORP compare to competitors in Utilities?
Compared to other companies in Utilities, Duke Energy CORP (DUK) shows: ROIC of 5.5% is below the sector median of 5.8% (Bottom 48%). FCF margin of -5.3% trails the sector median of 0.0% (Bottom 35% of sector). Gross margin at 108.1% is 44.8 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Utilities companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Duke Energy CORP?
Investors in Duke Energy CORP (DUK) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) FCF margin is thin at -5.3%, leaving limited buffer for economic downturns. 2) Debt-to-equity of 1.7x is elevated. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.