Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
Moderna, Inc. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -32.3% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | -106.2% | Cash flow pressure |
| Debt/Equity | 0.1x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
Explore Moderna, Inc.: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: Moderna, Inc. earns -32.3% ROIC, Bottom 50% in Healthcare
Moderna, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month ROIC of -32.3% ranks Bottom 50% in Healthcare companies (sector median: -3.9%), driven by NOPAT margin of -161.2% combined with asset turnover of 0.2x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. Gross margin of 55.3% with operating margin at -158.1% reflects strong pricing power.
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -32.3% | Red flag | Below sector median of -3.9% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -29.3% | Red flag | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 55.3% | Excellent | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | -158.1% | Warning | Moderate operational efficiency |
Cash Flow: Moderna, Inc. generates $-2.1B FCF at -106.2% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
Moderna, Inc. generated $-2.1B in free cash flow (TTM), a -106.2% FCF margin. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -106.2% | Red flag | Thin cash margins |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-2.1B | Red flag | Cash burn |
| OCF/Net Income | 0.7x | Adequate | Potential accrual concerns |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: Moderna, Inc. at 0.1x leverage
Moderna, Inc.'s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1x reflects conservative leverage. Net cash position of $5.2B provides financial flexibility. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.1x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Net Cash Position | $5.2B | Excellent | Net cash positive |
Valuation: Moderna, Inc. trades at -4.1x earnings
Moderna, Inc. trades at a P/E of -4.1x. Free cash flow yield of -18.0% reflects market expectations for growth.
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.1x | Red flag | Reasonable valuation |
| EV/Sales | 3.1x | Good | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | -18.0% | Warning | Lower cash yield |
Capital Allocation: Moderna, Inc. returns 0.0% shareholder yield
Moderna, Inc.'s total shareholder yield is 0.0% (dividends + buybacks). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 0.0% | Warning | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $0 | Adequate | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -32.3% | Bottom 50% | - |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -106.2% | Bottom 10% | - |
| Gross Margin | 55.3% | Bottom 50% | 0.9x below |
| Operating Margin | -158.1% | Top 5% | -82.4x below |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -29.3% | Bottom 50% | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | MRNA | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -32.3% | Red flag | Bottom 50% of sector (median: -3.9%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | -106.2% | Red flag | Thin cash margins |
| Gross Margin | 55.3% | Excellent | Bottom 50% of sector (median: 64.0%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 6.8% | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -18.0% | Red flag | Growth-focused valuation |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Moderna, Inc.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -32.3%. This compares below the sector median of -3.9%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is Moderna, Inc.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a free cash flow margin of -106.2%, generating $-2.1 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. Negative free cash flow means the company is consuming cash, which may require financing.
Q: Is Moderna, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) trades at a P/E ratio of -4.1x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 3.1x.
Q: What is Moderna, Inc.'s revenue and earnings growth?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) declined revenue by 39.9% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 21.7% compared to the prior year. Revenue decline may indicate market challenges or industry headwinds.
Q: How does Moderna, Inc. compare to competitors in Healthcare?
Compared to other companies in Healthcare, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) shows: ROIC of -32.3% is below the sector median of -3.9% (Bottom 26%). FCF margin of -106.2% trails the sector median of 0.0%. Gross margin at 55.3% is 8.6 percentage points lower than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Healthcare companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Moderna, Inc.?
Investors in Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) FCF margin is thin at -106.2%, leaving limited buffer for economic downturns. 2) ROIC has been declining, potentially signaling deteriorating competitive position. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.