Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
Natera, Inc. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -17.3% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 4.7% | Cash flow pressure |
| Debt/Equity | 0.0x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
Explore Natera, Inc.: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: Natera, Inc. earns -17.3% ROIC, Bottom 50% in Healthcare
Natera, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month ROIC of -17.3% ranks Bottom 50% in Healthcare companies (sector median: -3.9%), driven by NOPAT margin of -10.4% combined with asset turnover of 1.3x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. Gross margin of 64.7% with operating margin at -13.4% reflects strong pricing power.
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -17.3% | Red flag | Below sector median of -3.9% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -16.0% | Red flag | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 64.7% | Excellent | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | -13.4% | Warning | Moderate operational efficiency |
Cash Flow: Natera, Inc. generates $109.1M FCF at 4.7% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
Natera, Inc. generated $109.1M in free cash flow (TTM), a 4.7% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Top 50% in Healthcare. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.7% | Warning | Thin cash margins |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $109.1M | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | -1.0x | Warning | Potential accrual concerns |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: Natera, Inc. at 0.0x leverage
Natera, Inc.'s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x reflects conservative leverage. Net cash position of $1.0B provides financial flexibility. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.0x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Net Cash Position | $1.0B | Excellent | Net cash positive |
Valuation: Natera, Inc. trades at -150.7x earnings
Natera, Inc. trades at a P/E of -150.7x. Free cash flow yield of 0.3% reflects market expectations for growth.
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -150.7x | Red flag | Reasonable valuation |
| EV/Sales | 13.2x | Warning | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | 0.3% | Warning | Lower cash yield |
Capital Allocation: Natera, Inc. returns 0.0% shareholder yield
Natera, Inc.'s total shareholder yield is 0.0% (dividends + buybacks). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 0.0% | Warning | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $0 | Adequate | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -17.3% | Bottom 50% | - |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.7% | Top 50% | - |
| Gross Margin | 64.7% | Top 50% | 1.0x above |
| Operating Margin | -13.4% | Bottom 50% | -7.0x below |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -16.0% | Top 50% | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | NTRA | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | -17.3% | Red flag | Bottom 50% of sector (median: -3.9%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.7% | Warning | Top 50% of sector (median: 0.0%) |
| Gross Margin | 64.7% | Excellent | Top 50% of sector (median: 64.0%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 4.7% | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.3% | Red flag | Growth-focused valuation |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Natera, Inc.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -17.3%. This compares below the sector median of -3.9%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is Natera, Inc.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has a free cash flow margin of 4.7%, generating $109.1 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A thin FCF margin may indicate heavy reinvestment or operational challenges.
Q: Is Natera, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) trades at a P/E ratio of -150.7x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 13.2x. Free cash flow yield is 0.3%, reflecting growth expectations priced into the stock.
Q: What is Natera, Inc.'s revenue and earnings growth?
Natera, Inc. (NTRA) grew revenue by 35.9% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 0.7% compared to the prior year. Double-digit revenue growth indicates strong demand and market share gains.
Q: How does Natera, Inc. compare to competitors in Healthcare?
Compared to other companies in Healthcare, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) shows: ROIC of -17.3% is below the sector median of -3.9% (Bottom 37%). FCF margin of 4.7% exceeds the sector median of 0.0% (Top 30% of sector). Gross margin at 64.7% is 0.8 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Healthcare companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Natera, Inc.?
Investors in Natera, Inc. (NTRA) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) FCF margin is thin at 4.7%, leaving limited buffer for economic downturns. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.