CME GROUP INC. (CME) Stock Analysis
CME GROUP INC. (CME) Stock Analysis
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
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CME GROUP INC. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | N/A | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 64.3% | Strong cash generation |
| Debt/Equity | 0.0x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Healthy free cash flow margin of 64.3% provides financial flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.
What is CME GROUP INC.'s Profitability and ROIC?
CME GROUP INC.'s return on invested capital of N/A is below the typical cost of capital.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | N/A | Red flag | Below cost of capital |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 14.5% | Adequate | Moderate equity returns |
How Strong is CME GROUP INC.'s Cash Flow Quality?
CME GROUP INC. generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, representing a 64.3% margin. Cash earnings quality is strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income by 1.1x.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 64.3% | Excellent | Excellent cash conversion |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $4.2B | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 1.1x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
What is CME GROUP INC.'s Financial Health?
CME GROUP INC.'s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x indicates conservative leverage.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.0x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
Is CME GROUP INC. Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
CME GROUP INC. trades at a P/E of 24.4x, representing a premium to the sector median of N/A. Free cash flow yield of 4.3% reflects market expectations for growth.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.4x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | -6.1x | Excellent | Attractive revenue multiple |
| FCF Yield | 4.3% | Good | Lower cash yield |
| Dividend Yield | 4.0% | Good | Meaningful income |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 64.3% | Top 5% | 2.9x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 14.5% | Top 50% | 1.4x above |
| P/E Ratio | 24.4x | N/A | - |
Rating Thresholds
Free Cash Flow Margin
The percentage of revenue converted to free cash flow. Higher margins indicate stronger cash generation and business quality.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Strong cash generation, high-quality business |
| Good | 10% - 20% | Healthy cash conversion |
| Adequate | 5% - 10% | Moderate cash generation |
| Warning | 0% - 5% | Thin cash margins, capital intensive |
| Red flag | < 0% | Cash burn, potential liquidity concerns |
Current: 64.3% (Excellent - Top 5% of sector (median: 22.2%))
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Lower ratios indicate more conservative financing and reduced financial risk.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 0.3x | Conservative leverage, strong balance sheet |
| Good | 0.3x - 0.7x | Moderate leverage, healthy financial position |
| Adequate | 0.7x - 1.5x | Elevated leverage, monitor closely |
| Warning | 1.5x - 3.0x | High leverage, increased financial risk |
| Red flag | > 3.0x | Excessive leverage, potential distress risk |
Current: 0.0% (Excellent)
P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)
Stock price divided by earnings per share. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation, while higher P/E suggests growth expectations.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 15x | Attractively valued, potential opportunity |
| Good | 15x - 25x | Fair value for quality company |
| Adequate | 25x - 35x | Growth premium, justify with earnings growth |
| Warning | 35x - 50x | High expectations priced in |
| Red flag | > 50x or negative | Speculative valuation or losses |
Current: 24.4x (Adequate)
Free Cash Flow Yield
Free cash flow per share divided by stock price. Higher FCF yield indicates better cash return relative to valuation.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 8% | High cash return, potential value opportunity |
| Good | 5% - 8% | Solid cash yield |
| Adequate | 3% - 5% | Moderate cash return |
| Warning | 1% - 3% | Low cash yield, growth expectations |
| Red flag | < 1% | Minimal cash return to shareholders |
Current: 4.3% (Adequate)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is CME GROUP INC.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of N/A. This compares below the sector median of 9.2%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is CME GROUP INC.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) has a free cash flow margin of 64.3%, generating $4.2 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin above 20% indicates excellent cash conversion and a high-quality business model.
Q: Is CME GROUP INC. stock overvalued or undervalued?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) trades at a P/E ratio of 24.4x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is -6.1x. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%, which is in line with market averages.
Q: Does CME GROUP INC. pay a dividend?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) currently pays a dividend yield of 4.0%. Including share buybacks, the total shareholder yield is 4.0%. A yield above 4% is attractive for income investors, though sustainability should be verified through payout ratio analysis.
Q: What is CME GROUP INC.'s revenue and earnings growth?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) grew revenue by 6.4% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 15.4% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: How does CME GROUP INC. compare to competitors in Financials?
Compared to other companies in Financials, CME GROUP INC. (CME) shows: ROIC of N/A is below the sector median of 9.2% (NaNx median). FCF margin of 64.3% exceeds the sector median of 22.2% (Top 0% of sector). These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Financials companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with CME GROUP INC.?
CME GROUP INC. (CME) shows no major financial warning signs based on current metrics. However, investors should always monitor: 1) Margin compression trends, 2) Cash flow consistency, 3) Debt levels relative to cash generation, and 4) Changes in competitive positioning.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-10-24. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.