CSX CORP (CSX) Stock Analysis
CSX CORP (CSX) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-10-16. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
CSX CORP faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 9.5% | Near cost of capital |
| FCF Margin | 12.1% | Healthy cash flow |
Investment Thesis: Healthy free cash flow margin of 12.1% provides financial flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.
Explore CSX CORP: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: CSX CORP earns 9.5% ROIC, Top 50% in Transportation
CSX CORP's trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 9.5% ranks Top 50% in Transportation companies (sector median: 6.7%), driven by NOPAT margin of 24.6% combined with asset turnover of 0.3x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.5% | Adequate | Above sector median of 6.7% |
| Operating Margin | 32.1% | Excellent | Efficient operations |
Cash Flow: CSX CORP generates $1.7B FCF at 12.1% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
CSX CORP generated $1.7B in free cash flow (TTM), a 12.1% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Top 25% in Transportation. Operating cash flow exceeds net income by 1.6x, indicating high earnings quality. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 12.1% | Good | Healthy cash generation |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $1.7B | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 1.6x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet Analysis for CSX CORP
Total debt of $18.2B offset by $675.0M in cash. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Cash Position | $-17.5B | Warning | Net debt position |
Valuation: CSX CORP trades at 23.7x earnings
CSX CORP trades at a P/E of 23.7x. Free cash flow yield of 2.5% reflects market expectations for growth.
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.7x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 6.1x | Adequate | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | 2.5% | Adequate | Lower cash yield |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% | Adequate | Growth focus over income |
Capital Allocation: CSX CORP returns 3.5% shareholder yield
CSX CORP's total shareholder yield is 3.5% (dividends 1.4% + buybacks 2.1%). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 3.5% | Good | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Buyback Yield | 2.1% | Adequate | Active share repurchases |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $2.4B | Good | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.5% | Top 50% | 1.4x above |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 12.1% | Top 25% | 3.2x above |
| Operating Margin | 32.1% | Top 5% | 5.0x above |
| P/E Ratio | 23.7x | N/A | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | CSX | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.5% | Adequate | Top 50% of sector (median: 6.7%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 12.1% | Good | Top 25% of sector (median: 3.8%) |
| P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) | 23.7x | Adequate | Fair value |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 2.5% | Warning | Growth-focused valuation |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is CSX CORP's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
CSX CORP (CSX) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.5%. This compares above the sector median of 6.7%. An ROIC near 8-12% is approximately the cost of capital for most companies.
Q: What is CSX CORP's Free Cash Flow Margin?
CSX CORP (CSX) has a free cash flow margin of 12.1%, generating $1.7 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin between 10-20% represents healthy cash generation for most industries.
Q: Is CSX CORP stock overvalued or undervalued?
CSX CORP (CSX) trades at a P/E ratio of 23.7x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 6.1x. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%, reflecting growth expectations priced into the stock.
Q: Does CSX CORP pay a dividend?
CSX CORP (CSX) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.4%. Including share buybacks, the total shareholder yield is 3.5%. The relatively low yield suggests the company prioritizes growth reinvestment over income distribution.
Q: What is CSX CORP's revenue and earnings growth?
CSX CORP (CSX) declined revenue by 3.1% year-over-year. Earnings per share decreased by 14.5% compared to the prior year. Revenue decline may indicate market challenges or industry headwinds.
Q: Is CSX CORP buying back stock?
CSX CORP (CSX) repurchased $1.4 billion of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 2.1%.
Q: How does CSX CORP compare to competitors in Transportation?
Compared to other companies in Transportation, CSX CORP (CSX) shows: ROIC of 9.5% is above the sector median of 6.7% (Top 36%). FCF margin of 12.1% exceeds the sector median of 3.8% (Top 16% of sector). These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Transportation companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with CSX CORP?
Investors in CSX CORP (CSX) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) ROIC has been declining, potentially signaling deteriorating competitive position. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-10-16. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.