FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) Stock Analysis
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) Stock Analysis
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
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FLOWERS FOODS INC faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 4.1% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 6.1% | Healthy cash flow |
| Debt/Equity | 1.3x | Moderate leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
What is FLOWERS FOODS INC's Profitability and ROIC?
FLOWERS FOODS INC's return on invested capital of 4.1% is below the typical cost of capital. Gross margin of 48.9% with operating margin at 3.3% reflects the company's strong market position.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.1% | Warning | Below cost of capital |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 6.0% | Warning | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 48.9% | Good | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | 3.3% | Warning | Moderate operational efficiency |
How Strong is FLOWERS FOODS INC's Cash Flow Quality?
FLOWERS FOODS INC generated $319.1M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, representing a 6.1% margin. Cash earnings quality is strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income by 5.3x.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 6.1% | Adequate | Healthy cash generation |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $319.1M | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 5.3x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
What is FLOWERS FOODS INC's Financial Health?
FLOWERS FOODS INC's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x indicates moderate leverage.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 1.3x | Adequate | Moderate leverage |
| Net Cash Position | $-1.7B | Warning | Net debt position |
Is FLOWERS FOODS INC Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
FLOWERS FOODS INC trades at a P/E of 26.3x, representing a premium to the sector median of N/A. Free cash flow yield of 14.0% offers attractive cash returns.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.3x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 0.8x | Excellent | Attractive revenue multiple |
| FCF Yield | 14.0% | Excellent | Attractive cash return |
| Dividend Yield | 9.1% | Good | Meaningful income |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.1% | Bottom 50% | 0.6x below |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 6.1% | Bottom 50% | 0.9x below |
| Gross Margin | 48.9% | Top 25% | 1.5x above |
| Operating Margin | 3.3% | Bottom 50% | 0.4x below |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 6.0% | Bottom 50% | 0.9x below |
| P/E Ratio | 26.3x | N/A | - |
Rating Thresholds
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Measures how efficiently a company uses its debt and equity capital to generate profits. ROIC above 15% typically indicates a competitive moat.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Exceptional capital efficiency, strong competitive moat |
| Good | 12% - 20% | Above-average returns, sustainable competitive position |
| Adequate | 8% - 12% | Around cost of capital, moderate competitive position |
| Warning | 4% - 8% | Below cost of capital, value may be eroding |
| Red flag | < 4% | Significant capital destruction, fundamental issues |
Current: 4.1% (Warning - Bottom 50% of sector (median: 7.3%))
Free Cash Flow Margin
The percentage of revenue converted to free cash flow. Higher margins indicate stronger cash generation and business quality.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Strong cash generation, high-quality business |
| Good | 10% - 20% | Healthy cash conversion |
| Adequate | 5% - 10% | Moderate cash generation |
| Warning | 0% - 5% | Thin cash margins, capital intensive |
| Red flag | < 0% | Cash burn, potential liquidity concerns |
Current: 6.1% (Adequate - Bottom 50% of sector (median: 6.9%))
Gross Margin
Revenue minus cost of goods sold as a percentage. Higher gross margins indicate pricing power and competitive advantage.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 50% | Strong pricing power and competitive moat |
| Good | 30% - 50% | Healthy margins, differentiated product |
| Adequate | 20% - 30% | Moderate margins, competitive industry |
| Warning | 10% - 20% | Thin margins, commodity-like business |
| Red flag | < 10% | Very thin margins, structural challenges |
Current: 48.9% (Good - Top 25% of sector (median: 33.3%))
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Lower ratios indicate more conservative financing and reduced financial risk.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 0.3x | Conservative leverage, strong balance sheet |
| Good | 0.3x - 0.7x | Moderate leverage, healthy financial position |
| Adequate | 0.7x - 1.5x | Elevated leverage, monitor closely |
| Warning | 1.5x - 3.0x | High leverage, increased financial risk |
| Red flag | > 3.0x | Excessive leverage, potential distress risk |
Current: 134.6% (Adequate)
P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)
Stock price divided by earnings per share. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation, while higher P/E suggests growth expectations.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 15x | Attractively valued, potential opportunity |
| Good | 15x - 25x | Fair value for quality company |
| Adequate | 25x - 35x | Growth premium, justify with earnings growth |
| Warning | 35x - 50x | High expectations priced in |
| Red flag | > 50x or negative | Speculative valuation or losses |
Current: 26.3x (Adequate)
Free Cash Flow Yield
Free cash flow per share divided by stock price. Higher FCF yield indicates better cash return relative to valuation.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 8% | High cash return, potential value opportunity |
| Good | 5% - 8% | Solid cash yield |
| Adequate | 3% - 5% | Moderate cash return |
| Warning | 1% - 3% | Low cash yield, growth expectations |
| Red flag | < 1% | Minimal cash return to shareholders |
Current: 14.0% (Excellent)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is FLOWERS FOODS INC's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.1%. This compares below the sector median of 7.3%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is FLOWERS FOODS INC's Free Cash Flow Margin?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) has a free cash flow margin of 6.1%, generating $319.1 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin between 5-10% is typical for capital-intensive businesses.
Q: Is FLOWERS FOODS INC stock overvalued or undervalued?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) trades at a P/E ratio of 26.3x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 0.8x. Free cash flow yield is 14.0%, which represents an attractive cash return to investors.
Q: Does FLOWERS FOODS INC pay a dividend?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) currently pays a dividend yield of 9.1%. Including share buybacks, the total shareholder yield is 9.3%. A yield above 4% is attractive for income investors, though sustainability should be verified through payout ratio analysis.
Q: How much debt does FLOWERS FOODS INC have?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x with total debt of $1.8 billion. Net debt position is $1.7 billion.
Q: What is FLOWERS FOODS INC's revenue and earnings growth?
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) grew revenue by 3.0% year-over-year. Earnings per share decreased by 65.0% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: How does FLOWERS FOODS INC compare to competitors in Consumer Staples?
Compared to other companies in Consumer Staples, FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) shows: ROIC of 4.1% is below the sector median of 7.3% (Bottom 33%). FCF margin of 6.1% trails the sector median of 6.9% (Bottom 47% of sector). Gross margin at 48.9% is 15.6 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Consumer Staples companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with FLOWERS FOODS INC?
Investors in FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) ROIC has been declining, potentially signaling deteriorating competitive position. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. TTM metrics as of Q1 2026.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.