Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
View interactive company profile →
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | N/A | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 23.6% | Strong cash generation |
| Debt/Equity | -3.1x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Healthy free cash flow margin of 23.6% provides financial flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.
What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Profitability and ROIC?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s return on invested capital of N/A is below the typical cost of capital.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | N/A | Red flag | Below cost of capital |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -37.4% | Red flag | Moderate equity returns |
How Strong is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Cash Flow Quality?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. generated $86.1M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, representing a 23.6% margin. Cash earnings quality is strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income by 3.3x.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 23.6% | Excellent | Excellent cash conversion |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $86.1M | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 3.3x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Financial Health?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s debt-to-equity ratio of -3.1x indicates conservative leverage.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | -3.1x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Net Cash Position | $-254.5M | Adequate | Net debt position |
Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.0x, representing a premium to the sector median of N/A. Free cash flow yield of 4.7% reflects market expectations for growth.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 67.0x | Warning | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 5.6x | Adequate | Growth premium priced in |
| FCF Yield | 4.7% | Good | Lower cash yield |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 23.6% | Top 50% | 1.1x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -37.4% | Bottom 10% | -3.5x below |
| P/E Ratio | 67.0x | N/A | - |
Rating Thresholds
Free Cash Flow Margin
The percentage of revenue converted to free cash flow. Higher margins indicate stronger cash generation and business quality.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Strong cash generation, high-quality business |
| Good | 10% - 20% | Healthy cash conversion |
| Adequate | 5% - 10% | Moderate cash generation |
| Warning | 0% - 5% | Thin cash margins, capital intensive |
| Red flag | < 0% | Cash burn, potential liquidity concerns |
Current: 23.6% (Excellent - Top 50% of sector (median: 22.2%))
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Lower ratios indicate more conservative financing and reduced financial risk.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 0.3x | Conservative leverage, strong balance sheet |
| Good | 0.3x - 0.7x | Moderate leverage, healthy financial position |
| Adequate | 0.7x - 1.5x | Elevated leverage, monitor closely |
| Warning | 1.5x - 3.0x | High leverage, increased financial risk |
| Red flag | > 3.0x | Excessive leverage, potential distress risk |
Current: -306.2% (Excellent)
P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)
Stock price divided by earnings per share. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation, while higher P/E suggests growth expectations.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 15x | Attractively valued, potential opportunity |
| Good | 15x - 25x | Fair value for quality company |
| Adequate | 25x - 35x | Growth premium, justify with earnings growth |
| Warning | 35x - 50x | High expectations priced in |
| Red flag | > 50x or negative | Speculative valuation or losses |
Current: 67.0x (Warning)
Free Cash Flow Yield
Free cash flow per share divided by stock price. Higher FCF yield indicates better cash return relative to valuation.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 8% | High cash return, potential value opportunity |
| Good | 5% - 8% | Solid cash yield |
| Adequate | 3% - 5% | Moderate cash return |
| Warning | 1% - 3% | Low cash yield, growth expectations |
| Red flag | < 1% | Minimal cash return to shareholders |
Current: 4.7% (Adequate)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of N/A. This compares below the sector median of 9.2%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) has a free cash flow margin of 23.6%, generating $86.1 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin above 20% indicates excellent cash conversion and a high-quality business model.
Q: Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) trades at a P/E ratio of 67.0x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 5.6x. Free cash flow yield is 4.7%, which is in line with market averages.
Q: What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s revenue and earnings growth?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) grew revenue by 16.2% year-over-year. Earnings per share decreased by 10.3% compared to the prior year. Solid growth above 10% suggests healthy business momentum.
Q: Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. buying back stock?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) repurchased $81.7 million of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 4.4%.
Q: How does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. compare to competitors in Financials?
Compared to other companies in Financials, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) shows: ROIC of N/A is below the sector median of 9.2% (NaNx median). FCF margin of 23.6% exceeds the sector median of 22.2% (Top 47% of sector). These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Financials companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Goosehead Insurance, Inc.?
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) shows no major financial warning signs based on current metrics. However, investors should always monitor: 1) Margin compression trends, 2) Cash flow consistency, 3) Debt levels relative to cash generation, and 4) Changes in competitive positioning.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-10-23. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.