Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
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Hillman Solutions Corp. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 3.8% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 2.7% | Cash flow pressure |
| Debt/Equity | 0.6x | Moderate leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Profitability and ROIC?
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s return on invested capital of 3.8% is below the typical cost of capital. Gross margin of 48.8% with operating margin at 7.2% reflects the company's strong market position.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 3.8% | Red flag | Below cost of capital |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 3.1% | Warning | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 48.8% | Good | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | 7.2% | Adequate | Moderate operational efficiency |
How Strong is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Cash Flow Quality?
Hillman Solutions Corp. generated $41.1M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, representing a 2.7% margin. Cash earnings quality is strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income by 3.1x.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 2.7% | Warning | Thin cash margins |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $41.1M | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 3.1x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Financial Health?
Hillman Solutions Corp.'s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6x indicates conservative leverage.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.6x | Good | Moderate leverage |
| Net Cash Position | $-645.5M | Adequate | Net debt position |
Is Hillman Solutions Corp. Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 45.8x, representing a premium to the sector median of N/A. Free cash flow yield of 2.3% reflects market expectations for growth.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.8x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 1.6x | Excellent | Attractive revenue multiple |
| FCF Yield | 2.3% | Adequate | Lower cash yield |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 3.8% | Bottom 50% | 0.5x below |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 2.7% | Bottom 50% | 0.5x below |
| Gross Margin | 48.8% | Top 25% | 1.5x above |
| Operating Margin | 7.2% | Bottom 50% | 0.9x below |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 3.1% | Bottom 50% | 0.4x below |
| P/E Ratio | 45.8x | N/A | - |
Rating Thresholds
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Measures how efficiently a company uses its debt and equity capital to generate profits. ROIC above 15% typically indicates a competitive moat.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Exceptional capital efficiency, strong competitive moat |
| Good | 12% - 20% | Above-average returns, sustainable competitive position |
| Adequate | 8% - 12% | Around cost of capital, moderate competitive position |
| Warning | 4% - 8% | Below cost of capital, value may be eroding |
| Red flag | < 4% | Significant capital destruction, fundamental issues |
Current: 3.8% (Red flag - Bottom 50% of sector (median: 8.0%))
Free Cash Flow Margin
The percentage of revenue converted to free cash flow. Higher margins indicate stronger cash generation and business quality.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 20% | Strong cash generation, high-quality business |
| Good | 10% - 20% | Healthy cash conversion |
| Adequate | 5% - 10% | Moderate cash generation |
| Warning | 0% - 5% | Thin cash margins, capital intensive |
| Red flag | < 0% | Cash burn, potential liquidity concerns |
Current: 2.7% (Warning - Bottom 50% of sector (median: 5.4%))
Gross Margin
Revenue minus cost of goods sold as a percentage. Higher gross margins indicate pricing power and competitive advantage.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 50% | Strong pricing power and competitive moat |
| Good | 30% - 50% | Healthy margins, differentiated product |
| Adequate | 20% - 30% | Moderate margins, competitive industry |
| Warning | 10% - 20% | Thin margins, commodity-like business |
| Red flag | < 10% | Very thin margins, structural challenges |
Current: 48.8% (Good - Top 25% of sector (median: 33.4%))
Debt to Equity Ratio
Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Lower ratios indicate more conservative financing and reduced financial risk.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 0.3x | Conservative leverage, strong balance sheet |
| Good | 0.3x - 0.7x | Moderate leverage, healthy financial position |
| Adequate | 0.7x - 1.5x | Elevated leverage, monitor closely |
| Warning | 1.5x - 3.0x | High leverage, increased financial risk |
| Red flag | > 3.0x | Excessive leverage, potential distress risk |
Current: 55.5% (Good)
P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)
Stock price divided by earnings per share. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation, while higher P/E suggests growth expectations.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | < 15x | Attractively valued, potential opportunity |
| Good | 15x - 25x | Fair value for quality company |
| Adequate | 25x - 35x | Growth premium, justify with earnings growth |
| Warning | 35x - 50x | High expectations priced in |
| Red flag | > 50x or negative | Speculative valuation or losses |
Current: 45.8x (Adequate)
Free Cash Flow Yield
Free cash flow per share divided by stock price. Higher FCF yield indicates better cash return relative to valuation.
| Rating | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | > 8% | High cash return, potential value opportunity |
| Good | 5% - 8% | Solid cash yield |
| Adequate | 3% - 5% | Moderate cash return |
| Warning | 1% - 3% | Low cash yield, growth expectations |
| Red flag | < 1% | Minimal cash return to shareholders |
Current: 2.3% (Warning)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.8%. This compares below the sector median of 8.0%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) has a free cash flow margin of 2.7%, generating $41.1 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A thin FCF margin may indicate heavy reinvestment or operational challenges.
Q: Is Hillman Solutions Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) trades at a P/E ratio of 45.8x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 1.6x. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%, reflecting growth expectations priced into the stock.
Q: How much debt does Hillman Solutions Corp. have?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6x with total debt of $683.2 million. Net debt position is $645.5 million.
Q: What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s revenue and earnings growth?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) grew revenue by 4.5% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 400.0% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: How does Hillman Solutions Corp. compare to competitors in Industrials?
Compared to other companies in Industrials, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) shows: ROIC of 3.8% is below the sector median of 8.0% (Bottom 33%). FCF margin of 2.7% trails the sector median of 5.4% (Bottom 37% of sector). Gross margin at 48.8% is 15.4 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Industrials companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Hillman Solutions Corp.?
Investors in Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) FCF margin is thin at 2.7%, leaving limited buffer for economic downturns. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-04. TTM metrics as of Q3 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.