United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Analysis
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-10-16. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 7.6% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 4.3% | Cash flow pressure |
| Debt/Equity | 1.4x | Moderate leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
Explore United Airlines Holdings, Inc.: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. earns 7.6% ROIC, Top 50% in Transportation
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 7.6% ranks Top 50% in Transportation companies (sector median: 6.7%), driven by NOPAT margin of 6.2% combined with asset turnover of 0.8x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.6% | Warning | Above sector median of 6.7% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 24.7% | Excellent | Efficient use of shareholder equity |
| Operating Margin | 8.0% | Adequate | Moderate operational efficiency |
Cash Flow: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. generates $2.6B FCF at 4.3% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. generated $2.6B in free cash flow (TTM), a 4.3% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Top 50% in Transportation. Operating cash flow exceeds net income by 2.5x, indicating high earnings quality. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.3% | Warning | Thin cash margins |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $2.6B | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 2.5x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. at 1.4x leverage
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x reflects elevated leverage. Total debt of $21.3B offset by $12.4B in cash. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 1.4x | Adequate | Moderate leverage |
| Net Cash Position | $-8.9B | Warning | Net debt position |
Valuation: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. trades at 10.8x earnings
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8x. Free cash flow yield of 7.0% offers attractive cash returns relative to price.
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.8x | Adequate | Reasonable valuation |
| EV/Sales | 0.7x | Excellent | Attractive revenue multiple |
| FCF Yield | 7.0% | Good | Attractive cash return |
Capital Allocation: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. returns 1.8% shareholder yield
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s total shareholder yield is 1.8% (dividends + buybacks 1.8%). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-10-16.
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 1.8% | Adequate | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Buyback Yield | 1.8% | Adequate | Minimal buyback activity |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $637.0M | Good | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.6% | Top 50% | 1.1x above |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.3% | Top 50% | 1.1x above |
| Operating Margin | 8.0% | Top 50% | 1.2x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 24.7% | Top 25% | 2.4x above |
| P/E Ratio | 10.8x | N/A | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | UAL | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 7.6% | Warning | Top 50% of sector (median: 6.7%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 4.3% | Warning | Top 50% of sector (median: 3.8%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 139.2% | Adequate | Elevated but manageable |
| P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) | 10.8x | Adequate | Attractively valued |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 7.0% | Good | Solid cash yield |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.6%. This compares above the sector median of 6.7%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has a free cash flow margin of 4.3%, generating $2.6 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A thin FCF margin may indicate heavy reinvestment or operational challenges.
Q: Is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) trades at a P/E ratio of 10.8x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 0.7x. Free cash flow yield is 7.0%, which represents an attractive cash return to investors.
Q: How much debt does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. have?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x with total debt of $21.3 billion. Net debt position is $8.9 billion.
Q: What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings growth?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) grew revenue by 3.5% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased by 8.2% compared to the prior year. Modest growth indicates a mature business with stable demand.
Q: Is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. buying back stock?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) repurchased $637.0 million of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 1.8%.
Q: How does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. compare to competitors in Transportation?
Compared to other companies in Transportation, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) shows: ROIC of 7.6% is above the sector median of 6.7% (Top 46%). FCF margin of 4.3% exceeds the sector median of 3.8% (Top 49% of sector). These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Transportation companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with United Airlines Holdings, Inc.?
Investors in United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) FCF margin is thin at 4.3%, leaving limited buffer for economic downturns. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-10-16. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.