Insurance Dividend Safety Rankings 2026: TRV vs PGR vs ALL After $90B in CAT Losses

Last Updated: January 25, 2026 Data Currency: TRV Q3 2025 10-Q, PGR Q3 2025 10-Q, ALL Q3 2025 10-Q. TRV, PGR, ALL

Key Takeaways:

1. The Hidden Liability Problem: PGR's 26.8% payout looks safe until you add the $950M Florida excess profit credit. This contingent liability isn't in the payout ratio calculation but will hit cash flows in early 2026.
2. ALL's Turnaround Is Real—But Unproven. Q3 underwriting income jumped from $555M to $3.04B. The 12.6% payout provides maximum safety cushion, but sustainability requires multiple quarters of confirmation.
3. TRV Wins on Discipline. The 22-year dividend streak through multiple CAT cycles proves management won't sacrifice the dividend for growth. LOW hidden liabilities mean no surprises.
4. Segment Divergence Matters. PGR's Personal Lines (+12%) vs Commercial Lines (-6%) spread signals business model stress that could pressure earnings and dividends.

The Dividend Safety Paradox

Insurance sector is having a moment. After years of wildfire losses and CAT volatility, the sector is up +21.9% YTD—nearly double the S&P 500's +11.9% return. Dividend investors see yields of 1.5-2.0% backed by earnings beats.

But here's what the headlines miss:

Company	Q3 2025 EPS vs Consensus	Dividend Raised in 2025?	Hidden Problem
TRV	Beat by 29%	Yes	None material
PGR	Beat consensus	Yes	$950M Florida liability
ALL	Beat by 48%	Yes	Turnaround unproven

All three beat earnings. All three raised dividends. Yet one carries nearly $1 billion in contingent liabilities that won't show up in a standard payout ratio screen.

What Payout Ratio Is Safe for Insurance Dividends?

Payout ratios tell you how much of earnings go to dividends. Lower is safer—more cushion for bad years.

Company	Dividend Payout	FCF Payout	TTM Net Income	Dividend Coverage
TRV	16.8%	9.8%	$5.8B	6.0x
PGR	26.8%	16.8%	$10.7B	3.7x
ALL	12.6%	12.1%	$8.3B	7.9x

The Paradox: ALL—the "risky turnaround"—has the safest payout structure. PGR—the "best insurer"—has the least coverage.

Why? Narrative vs. numbers. ALL's management is preserving capital after CAT losses. PGR's management is confident enough to return more cash. Both are rational, but ALL's conservatism provides more downside protection.

The Hidden Liabilities Problem: PGR's $950M Florida Credit

This is where our 5-pass filing intelligence reveals what payout ratio screens miss.

Progressive's Hidden Exposure

Finding: Florida personal auto excess profit law triggered a $950 million policyholder credit expense in Q3 2025.

From PGR's Q3 2025 10-Q:

"As a result, in September 2025, we recorded a $950 million policyholder credit expense, which represents our current estimate of the profit we will earn on the three-calendar-year period ending December 31, 2025, in excess of the permitted profit limit."

What This Means:

• Florida law caps insurance profits over rolling 3-year periods
• PGR was too profitable in Florida personal auto (2023-2025)
• Excess profits must be credited back to policyholders
• Payment expected in early 2026

Impact on Dividend Safety:

• This $950M is a HIGH-severity contingent liability
• It's already accrued in Q3 2025 (hit earnings)
• But it signals regulatory risk in PGR's largest profit center
• Class action lawsuits on vehicle valuation add additional exposure

Our Hidden Liability Rating: HIGH

Bottom Line: Progressive's dividend carries elevated risk—the $950M Florida liability and Commercial Lines decline create uncertainty despite strong headline metrics.

Travelers' Clean Profile

Finding: TRV has LOW hidden liability risk.

Main Concern: Asbestos reserve uncertainty (legacy issue, stable)

Why It's Different:

• Asbestos exposure is known, reserved, and declining
• No material contingent liabilities in Q3 2025 filing
• No regulatory profit limits triggering credits
• No significant class actions threatening "material adverse effect"

Our Hidden Liability Rating: LOW

Bottom Line: Travelers' dividend is safe—16.8% payout ratio, 22-year increase streak, and LOW hidden liability risk provide substantial cushion through CAT volatility.

Allstate's Turnaround Clarity

Finding: ALL has LOW hidden liability risk.

Key Positive: Discontinued Allstate Health and Benefits segment (reduced complexity)

Concerns: Generic legal proceedings (normal course of business)

Why It's Safer:

• Sold EVB and group health businesses (cleaner focus)
• No material contingent liabilities quantified
• Turnaround strategy is transparent

Our Hidden Liability Rating: LOW

Bottom Line: Allstate's dividend is safe but unproven—the industry's lowest 12.6% payout ratio provides maximum headroom, but the turnaround needs multi-quarter confirmation.

Earnings Quality: Similar Scores, Different Stories

Company	EQ Score	Management Tone	Key Signal
TRV	7/10	Confident	"Higher underwriting margins"
PGR	7/10	Confident	"Underwriting profit margin of 10.5%"
ALL	7/10	Mixed	"Believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates"

Insight: Earnings quality doesn't differentiate these three. All score 7/10 on our accounting quality analysis. The differentiation comes from:

1. Hidden liabilities (PGR HIGH vs TRV/ALL LOW)
2. Payout structure (ALL conservative vs PGR aggressive)
3. Segment divergence (PGR's Commercial Lines decline)

When EQ scores are equal, look deeper.

Segment Divergence: Where Future Earnings Risk Lives

Insurance dividends come from segment earnings. If one segment deteriorates, the dividend base shrinks.

Progressive's Divergence Problem

Segment	Premium Growth	Underwriting Margin	Trend
Personal Lines	+12%	10.5%	Strong
Commercial Lines	-6%	Positive	Declining

Divergence: 18 percentage point spread between segments.

Risk: Commercial Lines decline accelerates, pressuring overall earnings. This isn't a "balance shift"—it's a potential structural problem.

From PGR's Q3 2025 10-Q:

"In Commercial Lines, we experienced a decrease in net premiums written of 6% for the third quarter 2025, compared to the same period last year."

The decline is driven by Transportation Network Company (TNC) premium decreases and policy term shifts. If this continues, PGR's earnings base narrows to Personal Lines only.

Travelers' Stability

Segment	Premium Growth	Trend
Business Insurance	+4.1%	Improving
Personal Insurance	+4.7%	Improving
Bond & Specialty	+4.4%	Improving

Divergence: Minimal. All segments growing 4-5%.

Strength: No single-segment dependency. If Personal Insurance has a bad CAT year, Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty provide buffer.

Allstate's Turnaround Concentration

Segment	Performance	Margin Change	Trend
Allstate Protection	+5.8% revenue	+1400bps	Strong turnaround
Protection Services	+9.6% revenue	-200bps	Margin pressure

Divergence: Core business (Allstate Protection) drives the turnaround. Ancillary business (Protection Services) is margin-negative.

Risk: If Allstate Protection margin normalizes after the turnaround, overall earnings may stall. The turnaround is real—but it's concentrated.

Dividend Safety Rankings: Final Verdict

Rank	Company	Safety Grade	Payout	Hidden Liab	Segment Health	Rationale
1	TRV	A	16.8%	LOW	Balanced	22-year streak, proven discipline, no surprises
2	ALL	A-	12.6%	LOW	Turnaround	Lowest payout, clean liabilities, but unproven
3	PGR	B	26.8%	HIGH	Diverging	$950M Florida liability, Commercial Lines decline

Investment Implications

For Income Priority: Travelers (TRV)

• 1.5% yield isn't highest, but it's safest
• 22 years of increases = management won't cut
• LOW hidden liabilities = no surprise charges
• Buy for reliable, growing income

For Turnaround Upside: Allstate (ALL)

• 1.8% yield with 12.6% payout = maximum growth headroom
• If turnaround sustains, dividend increases could accelerate
• Risk: Turnaround stalls, growth disappoints
• Buy if you believe Q3 isn't a one-quarter anomaly

Caution: Progressive (PGR)

• 2.0% yield looks attractive but carries $950M contingent liability
• Commercial Lines (-6%) signals structural headwind
• Wait until Florida liability resolves (early 2026)
• Don't overweight based on combined ratio narrative

TRV vs PGR vs ALL: Which Insurance Dividend Stock to Buy?

Factor	TRV	PGR	ALL	Edge
Payout Ratio	16.8%	26.8%	12.6%	ALL
Dividend Coverage	6.0x	3.7x	7.9x	ALL
Hidden Liabilities	LOW	HIGH ($950M)	LOW	TRV/ALL
Segment Balance	All +4-5%	18pp spread	Concentrated	TRV
Dividend Streak	22 years	Variable	14 years	TRV
Yield	1.5%	2.0%	1.8%	PGR
Total Shareholder Yield	4.1%	2.0%	3.2%	TRV
2026 Risk	LOW	HIGH (Florida)	MEDIUM (turnaround)	TRV

Factor Count:

• TRV wins 5 of 8 factors — safest choice for conservative income investors
• ALL wins on payout structure — best upside if turnaround proves durable
• PGR wins only on yield — but yield without safety is a trap

Data Sources and Methodology

Filing Intelligence: 5-pass analysis of Q3 2025 10-Q filings for TRV, PGR, ALL

• Pass 1: Narrative intelligence (management tone, forward guidance)
• Pass 2: Accounting quality (earnings quality scores)
• Pass 3: Hidden liabilities (contingent exposures, off-balance items)
• Pass 4: Risk landscape (business risks, litigation)
• Pass 5: Segment performance (line-of-business analysis)

Metrics: Computed from XBRL filing data

• Payout ratios: TTM dividends / TTM net income
• Coverage: TTM net income / TTM dividends
• Segment growth: YoY premium/revenue changes

Limitations:

• Q3 2025 quarterly data only (no annual 10-K)
• Combined ratio sourced from company disclosures, not computed metric
• Turnaround sustainability requires multi-quarter confirmation

---

MetricDuck's filing intelligence analyzes SEC filings to surface hidden liabilities and earnings quality signals that standard screens miss. Our 5-pass methodology identified PGR's $950M Florida exposure—a HIGH-severity contingent liability invisible to payout ratio calculations.