MetricDuck Blog

Financial data insights, product updates, and investment analysis tips.

Rare Earth Stocks: What the 10-Q Actually Says About USAR, MP, UUUU, NB, and PPTA

Five US-listed rare earth and critical minerals companies hold a combined ~$16 billion market cap. We computed cash runway, dilution velocity, and project funding gaps from their latest 10-Q XBRL data — then cross-referenced every government funding headline against what the SEC filings actually disclose. Key findings: NioCorp is 27% funded for the $1.14B Elk Creek Project with an EXIM timeline they 'cannot estimate.' Perpetua is 32% funded for a $2.2B project facing two federal lawsuits. NB shareholders have been diluted 210% from baseline. MP Materials is the only company with binding customer contracts and government price protection — but it's still burning $230M per year in free cash flow.

20 min read
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FCX vs SCCO: Why the Largest Copper Miner Earns the Lowest ROIC

We computed ROIC from XBRL financial data for every NYSE-listed copper miner with processed filings. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) — the world's largest publicly traded copper producer — earns the lowest return on invested capital at 9.2%, while Southern Copper (SCCO) generates 24.2% on half the revenue. The 10-K filings reveal why: FCX's Indonesia operations depend on $2.82/lb gold credits to achieve negative cash costs, while SCCO's $0.89/lb cost structure is built on vertical integration and 60-year mine lives.

16 min read
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Jabil vs Celestica 2026: Two Paths to ROIC Excellence in AI Infrastructure

Both Jabil (29% ROIC) and Celestica (39% ROIC) rank among the best capital allocators in EMS. But DuPont decomposition reveals they get there through opposite mechanisms — JBL wins on turnover (13x), CLS wins on margin (10.2%). The counter-intuitive finding: CLS has better metrics AND faster growth, yet trades at an apparent discount. Here's what the data reveals.

16 min read
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RKLB Stock Analysis: Is Rocket Lab's $25B Valuation Justified Before Neutron?

At $25B market cap and 41x revenue, Rocket Lab prices in Neutron success. Our 5-pass filing analysis reveals what the narrative misses: Launch Services growth inflated 32% by catch-up accounting, backlog concentration (69% top 5) exceeds revenue concentration, and gross margins compressed from 55% to 37%. Here's what to watch before the rocket flies.

16 min read
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Hospital ROIC Varies 14x: Why Risk Velocity Matters More

Four hospital operators, four business models, 14x ROIC spread. HCA's scale generates 19.2% returns. THC's ambulatory surgery centers deliver 16.8% margins. UHS's behavioral health focus shows improving trends—but deteriorating litigation risk. CYH's rural model is structurally broken. Static ROIC analysis misses the risk velocity layer that determines which returns are sustainable.

16 min read
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PLTR vs APP: Why 6x SBC Spread Reveals AI Scaling Economics

Palantir (14.6% SBC) and AppLovin (2.4% SBC) both grew revenue ~65% in Q3 2025. So why does one require 6x more equity compensation? Our SEC filing analysis reveals diverging trajectories that matter more than static spreads: APP's SBC is declining 38% YoY while PLTR's is accelerating 42% YoY. The difference: human-intensive vs AI-engine scaling economics.

18 min read
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The Homebuilder ROIC Paradox: Why NVR's 35% Returns Beat LEN's 9%

Wall Street treats homebuilders as a monolithic 'housing play.' But our analysis reveals a 4x ROIC spread (NVR 35% vs LEN 9%) that cannot be explained by margins alone. The divergence stems from three structural factors: NVR's asset-light lot model vs LEN's Millrose spin-off creating structural margin compression, DHI's $26B in specific performance land contracts creating downside asymmetry, and NVR's paradoxically 'cautious' guidance signaling genuine competitive strength.

18 min read
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Semiconductor Equipment: What ROIC Doesn't Tell You About AMAT's Risk

The semiconductor equipment ROIC spread (LRCX 54% vs AMAT 27%) is observable in any screener. But SEC filings reveal four hidden signals: AMAT faces TWO government investigations plus $181M restructuring, KLAC's AI packaging segment grew 37% with 401bps margin expansion (proving AI demand is real), LRCX's cash conversion is declining -23.7% (hidden stress beneath high ROIC), and ASML's 4-customer concentration creates feast-or-famine cycles.

14 min read
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AI Infrastructure Investing Hub: Capex Analysis, Risk Screening, and Beneficiary Research

AI infrastructure spending is approaching $500B annually across hyperscalers alone. Our research library covers capex efficiency metrics, depreciation manipulation detection, concentration risk screening, nuclear power for data centers, and supply chain analysis—everything you need to evaluate AI infrastructure investments.

min read
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Semiconductor Equipment ROIC: Why KLA's 43% Returns Have a Catch

KLA Corporation delivers 43% ROIC—highest in semiconductor equipment. But SEC filings reveal 33% China revenue concentration, DOJ export investigations, and rare earth supply risks. Our DuPont analysis shows KLAC's zero-debt, asset-light model drives returns, while ASML's 75% invested capital growth explains its ROIC decline. Lam Research emerges as the 'boring winner' with stable returns and minimal risk.

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Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly: Why NVO Converts More Revenue to Profit

Novo Nordisk outearns Eli Lilly on every margin metric: 84.7% gross margin vs 82.9%, 44.2% operating margin vs 44.4%, and 41.7% FCF margin vs ~27%. Yet LLY's 52% ROIC far exceeds NVO's—which appears as an anomalous -3.6%. This isn't a data error: NVO's negative invested capital reveals an extraordinarily asset-light business model where the standard ROIC formula breaks down. For margin-focused investors, NVO wins. For capital efficiency purists, LLY dominates.

min read
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