AI Data Center Risk Screen: 4 Signals Wall Street Misses (DLR, EQIX, VRT, PWR)
EQIX's capex intensity jumped +8.7pp in 8 quarters. CCI's ROIC collapsed to -12%. ANET's customer concentration is HIGH (Microsoft + Meta). Standard screeners show none of this. Here's our 4-signal framework for screening AI data center infrastructure stocks.
AI Data Center Risk Screen: 4 Signals Wall Street Misses
Last Updated: December 19, 2025 Data Currency: Q3 2025 10-Q filings. DLR, EQIX, AMT, CCI, VRT, PWR, EME, ANET
Standard screens miss the risks hiding in SEC filings. We analyzed 8 AI infrastructure companies across 24 quarterly filings (Q1-Q3 2025) using Filing Intelligence extraction. Our 4-signal framework surfaces what Wall Street overlooks: $2.3B hidden commitments at DLR, -12% ROIC at CCI, and HIGH hyperscaler concentration at ANET.
Bottom Line: AVOID CCI (structural decline). CAUTION on AMT (5.1x leverage). STRONG profiles at EQIX, VRT, EME, PWR.
- Digital Realty (DLR): $2.3B off-balance sheet construction commitments; active SEC cybersecurity investigation
- Crown Castle (CCI): ROIC collapsed from 10.5% to -12.0% over 8 quarters; HIGH customer concentration
- Equinix (EQIX): Largest customer = 3% of revenue; capex intensity increased +8.7pp to 37.1%
- Arista Networks (ANET): 161.6% ROIC but HIGH customer concentration (Microsoft + Meta)
- Vertiv (VRT): ROIC accelerated from 17.5% to 29.1% (+11.6pp); asset-light AI infrastructure beneficiary
- American Tower (AMT): 5.1x Net Debt/EBITDA (highest in group); 0.76x capex/depreciation (underinvesting)
Sources: Company 10-Q filings, SEC EDGAR
MetricDuck automatically tracks these 4 signals across 1,000+ companies. Compare All 8 AI Infrastructure Stocks →
Introduction
AI infrastructure spending is accelerating as hyperscalers race to build data center capacity for generative AI workloads. But not all "AI plays" are created equal. This analysis examines 8 companies spanning data center REITs (DLR, EQIX, AMT, CCI) and industrial suppliers (VRT, PWR, EME, ANET) using metrics that standard screeners ignore.
What you'll learn:
- How to use 4 signals to separate quality from risk in AI infrastructure stocks
- Why CCI's ROIC collapsed to -12% while VRT's accelerated to 29%
- Which companies have hidden off-balance sheet liabilities
- Where customer concentration creates binary risk
Data source: This analysis covers 24 quarterly filings (Q1-Q3 2025) processed through MetricDuck's Filing Intelligence extraction, plus 8-quarter trend analysis for key metrics.
Why Do Standard AI Infrastructure Screens Fail?
Everyone's screening for AI infrastructure stocks using the same metrics: P/E ratios, revenue growth, and maybe FFO for REITs. Here's what these screens miss entirely:
- Digital Realty (DLR) has $2.3 billion in off-balance sheet construction commitments plus an active SEC cybersecurity investigation
- Crown Castle (CCI) shows decent FFO but ROIC collapsed to -12.0%—invested capital is destroying value
- Arista Networks (ANET) posts 161.6% ROIC but Microsoft and Meta concentration creates binary risk
- Equinix (EQIX) increased capex intensity by +8.7 percentage points in 8 quarters—aggressive AI buildout most don't track
Standard screeners show none of this. They'll tell you all these stocks are "AI plays" without distinguishing quality from risk.
This framework uses 4 signals derived from SEC filing analysis to separate AI infrastructure winners from potential value traps.
What Is the 4-Signal Framework?
| Signal | What It Measures | Threshold | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off-Balance Sheet Exposure | Hidden liabilities / Market Cap | >15% = ELEVATED | Future FCF drag not in earnings |
| Customer Concentration | Top 3 customers / Revenue | >50% = BINARY RISK | Single customer loss = catastrophic |
| Capex/Depreciation Ratio | CapEx TTM / Depreciation | <0.8 = UNDERINVEST, >2.5 = AGGRESSIVE | Asset base aging vs. overbuilding |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | Leverage ratio | >5x = HIGH RISK | Refinancing risk in rising rates |
Source: Thresholds derived from analysis of 8 AI infrastructure companies, Q3 2025 10-Q filings.
What Are Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities and How Do They Hide Risk?
Off-balance sheet commitments—construction obligations, purchase agreements, surety bonds—represent contractual cash outflows that don't appear on standard screeners.
| Ticker | Market Cap | Off-Balance Exposure | % of Mkt Cap | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLR | $59.0B | $2.3B construction commitments | 3.9% | MODERATE |
| AMT | $90.0B | ~$6.2B purchase obligations | 6.9% | MODERATE |
| ANET | $183.4B | $4.8B purchase commitments | 2.6% | LOW |
| EME | $29.4B | $3.3B (surety + insurance) | 11.2% | ELEVATED |
| VRT | $57.4B | N/A (asset-light) | - | LOW |
Key Finding: DLR's $2.3 billion in construction commitments doesn't appear in FFO calculations. Combined with an active SEC investigation into cybersecurity disclosures, this creates compounding risk that FFO/AFFO payout ratios won't capture.
"We are subject to an ongoing SEC investigation...regarding our disclosures relating to a previously disclosed cybersecurity incident." — Digital Realty Q3 2025 10-Q
EME has the highest percentage exposure at 11.2%, though surety bonds and insurance liabilities differ from construction commitments in timing and conditionality.
Product Link: View DLR Filing Intelligence | View EME Filing Intelligence
Which Companies Have Dangerous Customer Concentration?
Customer concentration creates binary risk—when 2-3 customers represent the majority of revenue, losing one isn't a headwind, it's existential.
| Ticker | Concentration Level | Top Customers | Risk Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCI | HIGH | T-Mobile, AT&T | Carrier consolidation risk |
| ANET | HIGH | Microsoft, Meta | Hyperscaler in-housing risk |
| AMT | ELEVATED | AT&T Mexico | Single-market exposure |
| EQIX | LOW | Largest customer = 3% | Best diversification |
| DLR | LOW | Global enterprise mix | Well diversified |
Key Finding: ANET's exceptional 161.6% ROIC masks significant concentration risk. Per their Q3 2025 10-Q, Microsoft and Meta are dominant customers. If hyperscaler AI capex slows or customers in-house networking infrastructure, ANET's revenue could drop materially.
"Our largest customer accounted for approximately 3% of our recurring revenues for both the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024." — Equinix Q3 2025 10-Q
EQIX's 3% largest-customer concentration represents best-in-class diversification among AI infrastructure plays.
Product Link: Compare EQIX vs ANET
What Does the Capex/Depreciation Ratio Reveal?
The capex/depreciation ratio reveals whether companies are investing for growth or letting their asset base age.
| Ticker | Capex/Deprec | 8Q Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | 1.93x | +0.42x | GROWTH MODE - heavy AI buildout |
| EME | 1.53x | +0.02x | HEALTHY - maintaining growth |
| PWR | 1.41x | +0.07x | HEALTHY - steady investment |
| ANET | 1.37x | - | HEALTHY - asset-light model |
| AMT | 0.76x | +0.16x | UNDERINVESTING - asset aging |
| CCI | 0.72x | -0.09x | UNDERINVESTING - declining trend |
| VRT | 0.64x | -1.08x | TRANSITIONAL - was 1.72x |
Key Finding: EQIX at 1.93x is investing nearly twice depreciation into new capacity—consistent with AI-driven demand for interconnection. AMT and CCI below 0.8x are letting their asset bases age, a concerning signal for infrastructure businesses.
Red Flag: CCI's capex/depreciation declined from 0.81x to 0.72x while ROIC collapsed to -12.0%. This combination signals structural decline, not temporary headwinds.
How Does Leverage Create Refinancing Risk?
Net Debt/EBITDA above 5x creates refinancing risk, especially as interest rates remain elevated.
| Ticker | Net Debt/EBITDA | Interest Coverage | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMT | 5.1x | 3.6x | HIGH - refinancing pressure |
| PWR | 2.0x | 6.5x | MODERATE - manageable |
| VRT | 0.8x | 17.1x | LOW - deleveraging |
| EQIX | -0.8x | 3.0x | LOW - net cash |
| ANET | -0.7x | - | LOW - net cash |
| EME | -0.5x | - | LOW - net cash |
| CCI | -19.5x | 3.3x | RED FLAG - negative EBITDA |
Key Finding: AMT's 5.1x leverage is the highest in the group and creates real refinancing risk. Combined with underinvestment (0.76x capex/depreciation) and elevated customer concentration, AMT's profile warrants caution.
CCI's negative ratio reflects negative EBITDA—a structural profitability problem, not a leverage issue.
8-Quarter Trend Analysis: Who's Improving?
Point-in-time metrics miss trajectory. Here's what 8 quarters of trend data reveals:
Capex Intensity Trends (TTM)
| Ticker | Q4 2023 | Q3 2025 | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | 28.5% | 37.1% | +8.7pp | Aggressive AI buildout |
| VRT | 3.0% | 4.4% | +1.4pp | Moderate increase |
| PWR | 4.6% | 5.0% | +0.3pp | Stable |
| EME | 4.2% | 4.5% | +0.3pp | Stable |
| AMT | 4.3% | 4.0% | -0.3pp | Declining |
| CCI | 6.4% | 5.1% | -1.3pp | Declining |
ROIC Trends (TTM)
| Ticker | Q4 2023 | Q3 2025 | Change | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANET | 95.2% | 161.6% | +66.4pp | Exceptional |
| EME | 34.4% | 51.3% | +16.9pp | Exceptional |
| VRT | 17.5% | 29.1% | +11.6pp | Strong improvement |
| AMT | 7.0% | 11.1% | +4.1pp | Improving |
| PWR | 9.3% | 10.4% | +1.1pp | Stable |
| EQIX | 12.9% | 13.2% | +0.3pp | Stable |
| CCI | 10.5% | -12.0% | -22.5pp | Collapse |
Key Finding: VRT and EME show the strongest ROIC improvement trajectories among AI infrastructure plays. CCI's ROIC collapse from 10.5% to -12.0% is a structural red flag that standard screens completely miss.
What Is the Complete Scorecard for AI Data Center Stocks?
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | Signal 1 | Signal 2 | Signal 3 | Signal 4 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | $76.4B | - | LOW | 1.93x | -0.8x | STRONG |
| VRT | $57.4B | LOW | - | 0.64x | 0.8x | STRONG |
| EME | $29.4B | 11.2% | - | 1.53x | -0.5x | STRONG |
| PWR | $61.5B | - | - | 1.41x | 2.0x | STRONG |
| DLR | $59.0B | 3.9% | LOW | N/A | N/A | MODERATE |
| ANET | $183.4B | 2.6% | HIGH | 1.37x | -0.7x | MODERATE |
| AMT | $90.0B | 6.9% | ELEVATED | 0.76x | 5.1x | CAUTION |
| CCI | $41.9B | - | HIGH | 0.72x | NEG | AVOID |
Source: Q3 2025 10-Q filings via MetricDuck Filing Intelligence extraction, December 2025.
What Should Investors Do With This Analysis?
Avoid: Crown Castle (CCI)
CCI exhibits multiple red flags:
- ROIC collapsed from 10.5% to -12.0% over 8 quarters
- HIGH customer concentration (T-Mobile, AT&T)
- Capex/depreciation ratio declining (0.72x)
- Structural decline signals, not temporary headwinds
Caution: American Tower (AMT)
AMT has the highest leverage in the group:
- 5.1x Net Debt/EBITDA creates refinancing pressure
- Underinvesting at 0.76x capex/depreciation
- Elevated customer concentration (AT&T Mexico)
- ROIC improving but from low base
Watch: Arista Networks (ANET) & Digital Realty (DLR)
ANET: Exceptional 161.6% ROIC but HIGH customer concentration (Microsoft + Meta) creates binary risk. Monitor hyperscaler capex announcements closely.
DLR: $2.3B hidden liabilities (3.9% of market cap) plus SEC investigation. Low customer concentration is positive. Watch for resolution of SEC matter.
Strong Profiles
EQIX: Best diversification (3% largest customer), 1.93x capex/depreciation (growth mode), net cash position, stable ROIC. Premium valuation reflects quality.
VRT: ROIC accelerating from 17.5% to 29.1%, asset-light AI infrastructure beneficiary, low leverage. Pure play on data center cooling and power infrastructure.
EME: Exceptional 51.3% ROIC, healthy capex/depreciation (1.53x), net cash. Exposed to construction cycle but fundamentals are strong.
PWR: Balanced profile with improving ROIC, healthy investment levels, moderate leverage. Electrical infrastructure for data center buildout.
Screen These Stocks Yourself
Use MetricDuck's peer comparison tool to track these 4 signals in real-time:
Filing Intelligence for Hidden Liabilities:
- DLR Filing Intelligence - $2.3B off-balance sheet exposure
- EQIX Filing Intelligence - Customer concentration analysis
- VRT Filing Intelligence - AI demand commentary
Screen for AI Infrastructure:
- Screen by ROIC + Capex Intensity - Find similar quality profiles
- Custom Peer Groups - Build your own comparisons
Get Notified When Q4 2025 Data Arrives
This analysis uses Q3 2025 10-Q filings. When Q4 2025 quarterly reports are filed (late January 2026), our Filing Intelligence will automatically extract updated signals for all 8 companies.
Subscribe to filing alerts to receive updated analysis:
| Company | Alert Link |
|---|---|
| DLR - Digital Realty | Subscribe to DLR alerts |
| EQIX - Equinix | Subscribe to EQIX alerts |
| AMT - American Tower | Subscribe to AMT alerts |
| CCI - Crown Castle | Subscribe to CCI alerts |
| VRT - Vertiv | Subscribe to VRT alerts |
| PWR - Quanta Services | Subscribe to PWR alerts |
| EME - EMCOR | Subscribe to EME alerts |
| ANET - Arista Networks | Subscribe to ANET alerts |
Or manage all your filing alerts from your dashboard.
Methodology Notes
Data Sources:
- All metrics calculated from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings
- Filing Intelligence extracted using LLM analysis of 10-Q/10-K text sections
- 8-quarter trends use TTM (trailing twelve months) calculations
Metric Definitions:
- Capex Intensity: Capital Expenditures / Invested Capital
- Capex/Depreciation Ratio: CapEx TTM / Depreciation & Amortization TTM
- ROIC: Net Operating Profit After Tax / Invested Capital
- Net Debt/EBITDA: (Total Debt - Cash) / EBITDA
Limitations:
- DLR capex metrics unavailable due to REIT accounting differences; FFO/AFFO used instead
- Customer concentration derived from 10-Q disclosures; some companies don't quantify percentages
- Off-balance sheet exposure categories differ (construction vs. surety bonds vs. purchase obligations)
- REIT metrics (FFO/AFFO) not directly comparable to industrial supplier ROIC
- VRT's capex/depreciation ratio reflects transition from high-investment period; trajectory matters more than point-in-time
- Market cap used for off-balance sheet % calculation; enterprise value may be more appropriate for some analyses
- Hyperscaler AI capex is cyclical; current strength may not persist
External References:
- SEC EDGAR — Primary source for 10-K/10-Q filings
- Investopedia: Off-Balance Sheet Financing — Definition and risk implications
- CFA Institute: Return on Invested Capital — ROIC methodology
- Investopedia: Net Debt/EBITDA — Leverage ratio interpretation
- Investopedia: FFO (Funds From Operations) — REIT-specific profitability metric
Next Update: After Q4 2025 earnings (late January 2026)
Explore More AI Infrastructure Research
This article is part of our comprehensive AI Infrastructure Hub, which covers capex efficiency metrics, depreciation manipulation detection, and supply chain analysis.
Related AI infrastructure research:
- How to Track AI Capex Efficiency — 3-metric framework for monitoring hyperscaler spending
- AI Beneficiary Stress Test — Customer concentration vs margin momentum
- Caterpillar AI Infrastructure — Data center power demand analysis
MetricDuck Research
SEC filing analysis and XBRL data extraction