LEU vs CCJ 2026: Why Filing Data Shows Margin Collapse vs Quality Expansion
Centrus Energy (LEU) returned 264% in 2025 on the HALEU monopoly thesis. But SEC filings reveal a 69% collapse in core SWU pricing and negative gross profit. Meanwhile, Cameco (CCJ) delivered +88% gross profit growth with 530bps margin expansion.
LEU vs CCJ 2026: Why Filing Data Shows Margin Collapse vs Quality Expansion
Last Updated: January 2, 2026 | Sources: LEU 10-Q, CCJ 40-F
LEU's headline +30% revenue growth masks a 69% collapse in core SWU pricing and negative gross profit (-$4.3M). CCJ delivers genuine margin expansion: +530bps improvement and +88% gross profit growth.
Bottom Line: LEU is a call option on US nuclear policy. CCJ is an operating business with quality fundamentals.
Key Findings:
- LEU's 69% SWU price collapse masks headline revenue growth; gross profit now NEGATIVE (-$4.3M)
- CCJ's 530bps margin expansion proves operational leverage; gross profit +88%
- LEU's Russia dependence is existential (TENEX licenses rescinded Nov 2024)
- CCJ = core position candidate; LEU = call option (size 1-2% max)
- LEU: Revenue +30% but SWU price -69%; Gross profit NEGATIVE (-$4.3M); Russia risk escalated
- CCJ: Revenue +40% with gross profit +88% ($250M vs $133M); Cash from ops +164% ($530M)
- Risk Scores: LEU = 2 (very high); CCJ = 3 (high, stable)
The 5-Test Stress Framework
| Test | LEU Result | CCJ Result |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Quality | ❌ FAILING (-69% SWU price) | ✅ PASSING (+530bps margin) |
| Geopolitical Risk | ❌ EXISTENTIAL (Russia) | ⚠️ MATERIAL (Kazakhstan) |
| HALEU Reality | ⚠️ UNPROVEN | N/A |
| Balance Sheet | ⚠️ STRESSED ($1.17B debt) | ✅ CLEAN (no debt) |
| Customer Concentration | ❌ HIGH (33% top 2) | ⚠️ MODERATE (58% top 5) |
Result: CCJ passes 3 of 4 tests. LEU fails 3 of 5.
Test 1: Revenue Quality — The 69% Price Collapse
LEU: Growth Masks Core Business Collapse
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $57.7M | $74.9M | +30% |
| SWU Revenue | ~$58M | ~$34M | -41% |
| SWU Price | 100% | 31% | -69% |
| Gross Profit | $8.9M | -$4.3M | -148% |
"SWU revenue decreased by $24.1 million as a result of a 69% decrease in the average price of SWU sold." — Centrus Energy Q3 2025 10-Q, MDA Section
What drove headline growth? Uranium inventory sales ($34.1M, one-time) and Technical Solutions (+31%, government cost-plus contracts). Core enrichment business is collapsing.
CCJ: Margin Expansion is Real
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $844M | $1,183M | +40% |
| Gross Profit | $133M | $250M | +88% |
| Gross Margin | 15.8% | 21.1% | +530bps |
| Cash from Ops | $201M | $530M | +164% |
"Both segments saw significant increases in the average realized price... the uranium segment saw an increase in volume." — Cameco FY2024 40-F, Annual Report
CCJ's growth is price + volume. Margin expansion proves operational leverage.
Test 2: Geopolitical Risk — Russia vs Kazakhstan
LEU: Existential Near-Term Risk
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Primary Supplier | TENEX (Russia) |
| November 2024 Decree | Export licenses rescinded |
| Mitigation | US government waivers through 2027 |
| Risk Direction | ESCALATED |
"The Russian Decree rescinded TENEX's general license to export LEU to the United States." — Centrus Energy Q3 2025 10-Q, Risk Factors
LEU's viability depends on regulatory waivers, not operational excellence.
CCJ: Material but Diversifiable
| Factor | Status |
|---|---|
| Primary Exposure | Kazakhstan JV |
| Risk Status | "Potential future unrest" |
| Mitigation | Company-controlled diversification |
| Risk Direction | UNCHANGED |
CCJ's Kazakhstan exposure is real but medium-term and diversifiable.
Test 3: The HALEU Reality Check
The bull case: LEU is the only US HALEU producer. The reality: the market doesn't exist yet.
| Factor | Reality |
|---|---|
| NuScale (SMR) | -50% from highs, deployment 2027-28 |
| Oklo | Pre-revenue, NRC pending |
| LEU Tech Solutions | Government cost-plus contracts |
"Revenue from the HALEU Operation Contract is recorded on a cost-plus-incentive-fee basis." — Centrus Energy Q3 2025 10-Q, MDA Section
Assessment: LEU is a call option on US nuclear policy, not an operating business.
Test 4: Balance Sheet
| Metric | LEU | CCJ |
|---|---|---|
| Net Cash | $461M | $205M |
| Total Debt | $1.17B | ~$0 |
| Current Ratio | 3.46x | 1.62x |
LEU Red Flags:
- Inventory +$254.7M (stockpiling?)
- Deferred revenue -$61.6M (drawing down prepayments)
CCJ: Clean balance sheet, no debt, financial flexibility.
Test 5: Customer Concentration
| Metric | LEU | CCJ |
|---|---|---|
| Top 2 Customers | 33% | N/A |
| Top 5 Customers | ~50% | 58% |
| Top 10 Customers | 75% | N/A |
| Total Customers | ~10 | 41 |
LEU's concentration is more dangerous: fewer customers, relationships depend on Russian supply.
Comparative Summary
| Dimension | LEU | CCJ | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Quality | -69% SWU price | +530bps margin | CCJ |
| Gross Margin | NEGATIVE | +88% growth | CCJ |
| Geopolitical Risk | Existential | Material | CCJ |
| Balance Sheet | $1.17B debt | No debt | CCJ |
| Customer Concentration | 33% top 2 | 58% top 5 | CCJ |
| Risk Score | 2 (very high) | 3 (high) | CCJ |
| Investment Verdict | CALL OPTION (1-2%) | CORE POSITION (3-5%) | CCJ |
Investment Conclusion
LEU: Speculative Policy Bet
Bull: Only US HALEU producer; $3.9B backlog to 2040 Bear: Core business negative margins; Russia waivers required through 2027; HALEU market theoretical
Verdict: CALL OPTION. Size 1-2% max for policy bet exposure.
CCJ: Quality Uranium Exposure
Bull: Real margin expansion (+530bps); no debt; Westinghouse stake; 41 customers Bear: Kazakhstan risk; uranium price volatility
Verdict: CORE POSITION CANDIDATE. Quality fundamentals for nuclear exposure.
Position Sizing
| Type | LEU | CCJ |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-averse | 0% | 2-4% |
| Balanced | 0.5-1% | 3-5% |
| Risk-tolerant | 1-2% | 4-6% |
Screen These Stocks
Compare LEU vs CCJ | LEU Filing Intelligence | CCJ Filing Intelligence
Methodology
Sources: LEU Q3 2025 10-Q, CCJ FY2024 40-F via MetricDuck Filing Intelligence
Definitions:
- SWU: Separative Work Units—uranium enrichment measure
- HALEU: High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium for SMRs
- Risk Score: 1-10 scale (1 = highest risk)
Limitations: CCJ (IFRS) vs LEU (US GAAP) not directly comparable; different reporting periods; geopolitical situations evolve
Next Update: February 2026 (after Q4 earnings)
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