AnalysisDefense StocksROICLMT
Part of the ROIC Analysis Hub series

Defense Stocks 2025: LMT's ROIC Declining While RTX Improves (8Q Data)

Wall Street ranks Lockheed Martin's 30% ROIC as best-in-class. But our 8-quarter trajectory analysis reveals LMT's capital efficiency is actually declining (-0.018 trend) while RTX improves (+0.004). The data suggests the market may be mispricing defense contractor quality.

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Defense Contractor Capital Efficiency Rankings 2025: LMT, RTX, NOC, GD Deep Dive

Last Updated: November 30, 2025 Data Currency: Q3 2025 10-Q filings for all companies. LMT, RTX, NOC, GD

TL;DR: Lockheed Martin's 30% ROIC looks impressive—until you see the 8-quarter trajectory is declining (-0.018). RTX's lower 8.6% ROIC is actually improving (+0.004). The most differentiated finding: NOC's incremental ROIC of 31.3% suggests B-21 and space programs are generating exceptional returns on new capital. For investors prioritizing capital efficiency improvement over absolute levels, RTX and NOC offer more attractive trajectories than LMT.


Quick Comparison Table

Before diving deep, here's the executive summary of capital efficiency across the Big 4 defense contractors:

MetricLMTRTXNOCGDBest
ROIC (TTM)30.1%8.6%14.0%14.6%LMT
ROIC Trend (8Q)↓ -0.018↑ +0.004N/A↑ +0.004RTX/GD
Incremental ROIC6.1%12.3%31.3%4.1%NOC
ROIC VolatilityHigh (9.8%)Low (2.4%)N/AV.Low (1.4%)GD
Operating Margin8.3%10.3%10.6%14.0%GD
Oper Margin Trend+0.1%+2.3%+15.6%-0.7%NOC
FCF Yield4.0%2.3%2.1%5.4%GD
Net Debt/EBITDA3.0x2.5x2.2x1.2xGD
Market Cap$113B$225B$87B$89BRTX
Revenue (TTM)$73.3B$86.0B$40.9B$38.2BRTX

Source: SEC 10-Q/10-K filings via MetricDuck. Trend calculated via OLS regression on trailing 8 quarters.


Section 1: Why Capital Efficiency Matters in Defense

Defense contractors operate with economics invisible to traditional analysis. A typical tech company signs 1-3 year contracts. Lockheed Martin's F-35 program runs until 2070 and beyond—a 50+ year commitment that creates unique capital allocation dynamics.

The Unique Economics of Defense Contracts

Multi-decade contracts distort traditional metrics:

  • The F-35 program represents $1.7 trillion in lifetime value
  • Backlog-to-revenue ratios run 5-7x (vs 0.3-0.5x for tech companies)
  • Government budget cycles create predictable but lagged earnings patterns

Cost-plus vs fixed-price contracts:

  • Cost-plus contracts: Contractor reimbursed for costs + guaranteed margin (lower risk, lower returns)
  • Fixed-price contracts: Contractor bears cost overrun risk (higher risk, potentially higher returns)
  • LMT's F-35 is cost-plus for development, fixed-price for production—creating margin compression as volumes scale

Why ROIC trajectory matters more than absolute ROIC:

A company at 30% ROIC trending downward may be a worse investment than one at 8% ROIC trending upward. The trajectory reveals:

  • Contract renewal economics
  • Cost overrun emergence
  • New program profitability
  • Management capital allocation quality

This is the core insight that differentiates our analysis from surface-level P/E comparisons.


Section 2: ROIC Deep Dive - The Real Rankings

2.1 Current ROIC Snapshot

As of Q3 2025, here's how the Big 4 rank on trailing twelve-month ROIC:

  1. Lockheed Martin (LMT): 30.1% — The headline winner
  2. General Dynamics (GD): 14.6% — Most stable
  3. Northrop Grumman (NOC): 14.0% — Strong incremental
  4. RTX Corporation (RTX): 8.6% — Lowest but improving

If you stopped here, LMT looks like the obvious choice. But absolute ROIC is only half the story.

2.2 ROIC Trajectory Analysis (8-Quarter Trend)

Our 8-quarter trend analysis (Q.TREND8) reveals the direction of capital efficiency—a metric that predicts future performance better than point-in-time snapshots.

Lockheed Martin: DECLINING Capital Efficiency

LMT's ROIC has oscillated dramatically over the past 8 quarters:

QuarterROICIncremental ROIC8Q Trend
Q4 202334.7%21.0%-0.004
Q1 202429.6%-3.6%-0.007
Q2 202431.3%-10.0%-0.006
Q3 202431.3%19.4%-0.004
Q4 202411.9%-103.0%-0.016
Q1 202532.4%15.0%-0.011
Q2 20259.6%-43.2%-0.025
Q3 202530.1%6.1%-0.018

Key observations:

  • ROIC swings from 9.6% to 34.7% (25+ percentage point range)
  • Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 saw dramatic drops, likely due to one-time charges
  • The 8-quarter trend is consistently negative (-0.018) — ROIC is declining over time
  • Volatility (9.8% standard deviation) is exceptionally high

RTX Corporation: IMPROVING Capital Efficiency

RTX tells the opposite story:

  • ROIC improved from 6.5% to 8.6% over 8 quarters
  • Positive trend coefficient: +0.004
  • Low volatility (2.4% standard deviation)
  • The 2020 UTC/Raytheon merger initially depressed ROIC, but synergies are materializing

What this means: RTX's lower absolute ROIC is misleading. The company is building capital efficiency while LMT's is eroding.

2.3 Incremental ROIC: The Hidden Metric

Incremental ROIC measures returns on new capital deployed: ΔNOPAT / ΔInvested Capital.

This is the single most differentiated metric in defense contractor analysis—and it reveals a story Wall Street misses entirely.

CompanyHistorical ROICIncremental ROICInterpretation
LMT30.1%6.1%New capital earning LESS than legacy
RTX8.6%12.3%New capital earning MORE than legacy
NOC14.0%31.3%Exceptional new program returns
GD14.6%4.1%Submarines are capital intensive

The Moat Erosion Signal: A company with 30% historical ROIC but 6% incremental ROIC is eroding its competitive advantage. Every new dollar of capital deployed earns far less than the legacy business. LMT's 6.1% incremental ROIC vs 30% historical is a classic moat erosion pattern.

NOC's Exceptional Incremental ROIC (31.3%)

Northrop Grumman's 31.3% incremental ROIC stands out dramatically. This suggests:

  • B-21 Raider bomber program is generating exceptional returns
  • Space systems investments are paying off
  • New contracts are more profitable than legacy programs

For investors, this is the hidden quality signal: NOC is building its moat while LMT may be eroding theirs.

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Section 3: Operating Margin Analysis

Operating margins reveal pricing power, cost discipline, and contract quality. For defense contractors, margin trajectory can signal cost overruns 2-3 quarters before they appear in earnings calls.

3.1 Current Operating Margins

CompanyOperating Margin (TTM)Interpretation
GD14.0%Highest — diversified portfolio + Gulfstream
NOC10.6%B-21 development phase, improving
RTX10.3%Post-merger stabilization
LMT8.3%Lowest — F-35 sustainment pressure

GD's 14% operating margin is 69% higher than LMT's 8.3%. This reflects GD's diversification into commercial aerospace (Gulfstream) and IT services (GDIT), which carry higher margins than pure defense manufacturing.

3.2 Operating Margin Trajectory (8-Quarter Trend)

Here's where the analysis gets interesting:

CompanyMargin Trend (Q.TREND8)DirectionInterpretation
NOC+15.6%↑ Rapidly improvingB-21 program maturation
RTX+2.3%↑ Steady improvementMerger synergies
LMT+0.1%→ FlatMargin pressure contained
GD-0.7%↓ Slight declineGulfstream delivery headwinds

NOC's +15.6% margin trend is exceptional. This suggests the B-21 program is transitioning from development (capital intensive, negative margin impact) to early production (margin accretive). This is a leading indicator of future profitability.

3.3 What F-35 Cost Overruns Mean for LMT

The F-35 program's struggles are well-documented, but their financial impact is often underestimated:

GAO Findings (September 2025):

  • F-35 deliveries averaged 238 days late (up from 61 days in 2023)
  • Program now 80% over original budget ($1.7T vs $233B initial estimate)
  • Lockheed received incentive fees despite late deliveries

Financial impact visible in our data:

  • LMT's operating margin (8.3%) is lowest among peers
  • Incremental ROIC (6.1%) suggests new F-35 production is margin-dilutive
  • ROIC volatility (9.8%) reflects one-time charges from program adjustments

The data suggests: LMT's F-35 dominance comes at a capital efficiency cost. The program's fixed-price production contracts create margin pressure as volumes scale.


Section 4: Balance Sheet Strength

Defense contractors' balance sheets reveal M&A capacity, dividend sustainability, and financial flexibility. Net Debt/EBITDA trajectory is particularly informative—companies deleveraging quickly have more strategic optionality.

4.1 Net Debt/EBITDA Comparison

CompanyNet Debt/EBITDARatingInterpretation
GD1.2xFortressStrongest balance sheet
NOC2.2xComfortableInvestment grade cushion
RTX2.5xAcceptablePost-merger deleveraging
LMT3.0xElevatedHighest leverage among peers

GD's 1.2x leverage is exceptional for a defense contractor. This provides:

  • Capacity for opportunistic M&A
  • Dividend safety cushion
  • Flexibility for share buybacks

LMT's 3.0x leverage is elevated but manageable. However, combined with declining ROIC trajectory, it limits financial flexibility.

4.2 Leverage Trajectory

The direction of leverage matters as much as the absolute level:

CompanyLeverage TrajectoryInterpretation
RTXDeleveraging fastestMerger debt unwinding
GDStable at low levelsMaintaining optionality
NOCStableConsistent capital structure
LMTSlightly increasingFunding programs + dividends

RTX's deleveraging story: The 2020 merger with United Technologies created significant leverage. RTX has prioritized debt paydown, and the trajectory shows consistent improvement. This opens M&A optionality as leverage normalizes.

4.3 M&A Capacity

Defense sector consolidation is ongoing. Recent examples:

  • L3Harris merger (2019)
  • Raytheon/UTC merger (2020)
  • Lockheed's proposed Aerojet acquisition (blocked by FTC)

Companies with low leverage and high FCF have the most optionality:

CompanyM&A CapacityRationale
GDHighest1.2x leverage + 5.4% FCF yield
NOCHigh2.2x leverage + improving margins
RTXModerateDeleveraging first priority
LMTLimited3.0x leverage constrains flexibility

Section 5: FCF Yield & Dividend Safety

Defense contractors are often held as income investments. FCF yield and payout sustainability are critical for dividend-focused investors.

5.1 FCF Yield Rankings

CompanyFCF Yield (TTM)Interpretation
GD5.4%Highest cash yield
LMT4.0%Solid FCF generation
RTX2.3%Reinvesting in growth
NOC2.1%B-21 investment consuming cash

GD's 5.4% FCF yield stands out. Combined with its low leverage (1.2x), this provides exceptional dividend coverage.

5.2 Dividend Coverage Analysis

CompanyDividend YieldPayout Ratio (5Y Avg)Safety Assessment
LMT2.75%47%✅ Safe — conservative payout
GD1.84%~35%✅ Safe — low payout + high FCF
NOC1.6%~40%✅ Safe — conservative
RTX1.9%101%⚠️ Watch — historically high

RTX's payout ratio concern: Over the past 5 years, RTX has averaged a 101% payout ratio—meaning dividends exceeded earnings. This is concerning but context matters:

  • Merger integration costs depressed earnings temporarily
  • FCF has improved as synergies materialize
  • Management has signaled commitment to dividend growth

The data suggests: Monitor RTX's FCF conversion as merger integration completes. The high historical payout ratio should normalize.

5.3 Dividend Sustainability Verdict

For income investors, here's our assessment:

CompanyDividend SafetyConfidence
GDSafestHigh — low leverage + high FCF yield
LMTSafeHigh — 47% payout ratio
NOCSafeHigh — conservative management
RTXImprovingMedium — watch FCF trajectory

Section 6: Program-Specific Analysis

Each defense contractor has signature programs that drive economics. Understanding program maturity and risk is essential for evaluating future capital efficiency.

6.1 Lockheed Martin: F-35 Dominance, but at What Cost?

The F-35 Lightning II is the most expensive weapons program in history:

  • Program value: $1.7 trillion lifetime
  • Budget overrun: 80% over original estimate
  • Schedule delay: 10 years late for full operational capability
  • Production deliveries: 238 days late on average (2024)

Financial impact:

  • F-35 represents ~25% of LMT revenue
  • Sustainment costs (maintenance, upgrades) are becoming the larger segment
  • Fixed-price production contracts create margin pressure at scale

NGAD contract loss: In late 2024, Boeing won the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD/F-47) contract over Lockheed. This signals:

  • Competitive position may be weakening
  • Future fighter revenue shifts to Boeing
  • LMT's aircraft dominance is no longer assured

6.2 RTX Corporation: Merger Integration Success Story

The 2020 merger combined United Technologies (Pratt & Whitney engines, Collins Aerospace) with Raytheon (missiles, defense systems):

  • Defense backlog: $92 billion
  • Commercial aerospace exposure: Pratt & Whitney engines for Airbus, Boeing
  • Synergy target: $1 billion+ annual savings

Our data shows integration is working:

  • ROIC improved from 6.5% to 8.6% (8Q trend: +0.004)
  • Operating margin trend: +2.3%
  • Incremental ROIC: 12.3% (higher than historical)

Risk factor: Tariff impact. RTX management guided to $850 million hit to 2025 operating profit from tariffs. Commercial aerospace recession would also create headwinds.

6.3 Northrop Grumman: B-21 High-Margin Opportunity

The B-21 Raider is the U.S. Air Force's next-generation stealth bomber:

  • Fixed-price contract: NOC bears cost overrun risk
  • First flight: 2023 (on schedule)
  • Production: Ramping up at Palmdale, CA facility

Why our data shows exceptional economics:

  • Incremental ROIC: 31.3% (highest among peers)
  • Operating margin trend: +15.6% (exceptional improvement)
  • This suggests B-21 contracts are highly profitable

Caveat: B-21 is a classified program. Limited public visibility creates opacity risk. However, the financial metrics suggest strong contract economics.

Space systems growth: NOC is also investing heavily in space:

  • Sentinel ICBM replacement program
  • Satellite systems
  • Space Launch System (SLS) components

6.4 General Dynamics: The Stable Dividend Machine

GD is the most diversified of the Big 4, with four distinct business segments:

1. Aerospace (Gulfstream jets):

  • Commercial business jet market leader
  • Higher margins than pure defense
  • Cyclical demand tied to corporate profits

2. Marine Systems (submarines):

  • Virginia-class attack submarines
  • Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines
  • Multi-decade backlog but capital intensive

3. Combat Systems:

  • Abrams tanks, Stryker vehicles
  • Land systems for Army contracts

4. Technologies (GDIT):

  • IT services for government agencies
  • Higher margin, lower capital intensity

Why GD has the most stable ROIC:

  • Diversification reduces program-specific volatility
  • ROIC volatility: only 1.4% (lowest among peers)
  • Gulfstream provides commercial revenue cushion
  • IT services segment is asset-light

Section 7: Sector Benchmarks & Context

7.1 Defense vs Industrial Sector ROIC

How do defense contractors compare to the broader industrial sector?

BenchmarkROIC RangeContext
Defense sector average12-15%Government contracts, stable but regulated
Industrial sector average10-12%Broader manufacturing base
LMT30.1%2-3x sector average (exceptional)
RTX8.6%Below average (merger drag)
NOC14.0%At sector average
GD14.6%At sector average

LMT's 30% ROIC is exceptional in any sector—but remember the declining trajectory and low incremental ROIC. The historical returns may not persist.

7.2 Government Budget Tailwinds

All four contractors benefit from increasing defense spending:

Budget MetricValueTrend
FY2026 NDAA$924.7 billion+2.4% YoY
Administration target$1 trillion by 2026Ambitious but signaled
NATO commitments2% GDP minimumDriving European demand

Geopolitical drivers:

  • Ukraine conflict sustaining munitions demand
  • Taiwan tensions driving naval investment
  • Middle East instability supporting missile defense

All four contractors are positioned to benefit. The question is which will convert budget growth into superior capital efficiency.


Section 8: Investment Framework (Balanced with Leans)

Different investors have different objectives. Here's how the data maps to investment styles:

8.1 For Income Investors

The data suggests: GD offers the best combination of FCF yield (5.4%), dividend safety, and balance sheet strength.

CriteriaGDLMTWinner
FCF Yield5.4%4.0%GD
Net Debt/EBITDA1.2x3.0xGD
Payout Ratio~35%47%GD
Dividend Yield1.84%2.75%LMT

LMT's higher dividend yield comes with higher leverage and margin pressure risk. For pure income, GD's lower yield is compensated by superior safety.

8.2 For Growth Investors

The data suggests: NOC's exceptional incremental ROIC (31.3%) and improving margin trajectory (+15.6%) indicate B-21 and space programs are generating strong returns on new capital.

CriteriaNOCOthers
Incremental ROIC31.3%4-12%
Operating Margin Trend+15.6%-0.7% to +2.3%
New Program UpsideB-21, SpaceMixed

NOC is reinvesting at the highest returns. For growth-oriented investors, this is the quality signal.

8.3 For Value Investors

The data suggests: RTX's improving ROIC trajectory and merger deleveraging could mean the market is undervaluing post-merger efficiency gains.

CriteriaRTXContext
ROIC Trend+0.004Improving
Incremental ROIC12.3%Above historical 8.6%
Leverage2.5x → decliningImprovement
P/E (Forward)25.8xNot cheap, but deserved?

RTX trades at a premium, but improving fundamentals may justify it. The merger thesis appears to be working.

8.4 For Conservative Investors

The data suggests: GD's low ROIC volatility (1.4% std dev) and diversified business mix provides the most predictable returns.

CriteriaGDOthers
ROIC Volatility1.4%2.4-9.8%
Business Diversification4 segments2-3 segments
Balance Sheet1.2x leverage2.2-3.0x
Management StyleConservativeVaries

For investors seeking predictability over maximum returns, GD is the clear choice.


Section 9: Risks & Red Flags

Every investment has risks. Here's what to monitor for each company:

9.1 Lockheed Martin Risks

RiskSeverityEvidence
ROIC trajectory decliningHighTrend: -0.018 over 8 quarters
Incremental ROIC below historicalHigh6.1% vs 30% = moat erosion signal
NGAD contract lossMediumF-47 awarded to Boeing
F-35 sustainment costsMediumMargin pressure visible
Elevated leverageMedium3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA

9.2 RTX Corporation Risks

RiskSeverityEvidence
Tariff impactHigh$850M hit to 2025 profit guided
High historical payout ratioMedium5-year average 101%
Commercial aerospace exposureMediumRecession would pressure Pratt & Whitney
Merger complexityLowIntegration mostly complete

9.3 Northrop Grumman Risks

RiskSeverityEvidence
B-21 cost overrun riskHighFixed-price contract structure
Limited 8Q trend dataMediumData gaps limit full analysis
Classified program opacityMediumLess visibility than peers
Concentration riskMediumB-21 + Sentinel dominate backlog

9.4 General Dynamics Risks

RiskSeverityEvidence
Gulfstream demand cyclicalityMediumBusiness jet market is cyclical
Submarine program delaysMediumSupply chain constraints
Lowest incremental ROICLow4.1% suggests capital-intensive growth
Margin trajectory decliningLow-0.7% trend is slight

Section 10: Our Subjective Interpretation

We've presented the data objectively. Now here's our honest assessment, with appropriate humility about uncertainty.

Ranking by Investor Objective

ObjectiveBest PickConfidenceRationale
Best Capital Efficiency TrajectoryNOCMedium-High31.3% incremental ROIC + margin expansion
Best Balance SheetGDHigh1.2x leverage, clear winner
Best Turnaround StoryRTXMediumMerger working, ROIC improving
Highest Risk/RewardNOCMediumB-21 could be exceptional or problematic
Best Dividend SafetyGDHighLow payout + high FCF yield
Highest Absolute ROICLMTHigh (for now)30.1%, but declining

The Contrarian Insight

Conventional wisdom: LMT has the best ROIC (30%), therefore it's the highest quality defense contractor.

What the data suggests: LMT's declining trajectory (-0.018), high volatility (9.8%), and low incremental ROIC (6.1%) signal potential moat erosion. The company's 30% ROIC may not persist.

For investors prioritizing capital efficiency improvement over absolute levels, RTX and NOC offer more attractive trajectories than LMT, despite LMT's higher current ROIC.

Overall Verdict

Investor TypeRecommendationConfidence
Income-focusedGDHigh
Growth-focusedNOCMedium
Value-focusedRTXMedium
Momentum-focusedNOCMedium
ConservativeGDHigh

The honest uncertainty: Defense contractors are affected by geopolitical factors, budget politics, and program execution risk that are difficult to forecast. Our data provides edge on capital efficiency analysis, but macro risks remain.


Frequently Asked Questions

What is Lockheed Martin's current ROIC?

LMT's trailing twelve-month ROIC is 30.1%, the highest among major defense contractors. However, the 8-quarter trend shows decline from 34.7%, with a negative trend coefficient of -0.018. This suggests capital efficiency is eroding.

Which defense stock has the best capital efficiency?

It depends on how you define "best." LMT has highest absolute ROIC (30.1%), but NOC has highest incremental ROIC (31.3%) indicating new investments are generating superior returns. For trajectory improvement, RTX shows the strongest positive trend (+0.004).

Is RTX's ROIC improving after the merger?

Yes. RTX's ROIC has improved from 6.5% to 8.6% with a positive 8-quarter trend of +0.004, suggesting merger synergies with United Technologies are materializing. Incremental ROIC of 12.3% (above historical 8.6%) confirms new capital deployment is earning higher returns.

What is incremental ROIC and why does it matter?

Incremental ROIC measures returns on NEW capital deployed (ΔNOPAT/ΔInvested Capital). A company with high historical ROIC but low incremental ROIC is eroding its competitive advantage. LMT's 6.1% incremental vs 30% historical is a classic moat erosion pattern.

Which defense contractor has the safest dividend?

GD offers the safest dividend with a 5.4% FCF yield, 1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA, and conservative ~35% payout ratio. LMT's 2.75% yield is also well-covered with a 47% payout ratio. RTX's historically high payout ratio (101% 5-year average) warrants monitoring.

How do F-35 cost overruns affect Lockheed Martin's financials?

F-35 sustainment costs and fixed-price production contracts are creating margin pressure. This is visible in LMT's declining ROIC trajectory (-0.018) and low incremental ROIC (6.1% vs 30% historical). The GAO reported 238-day average delays in 2024, up from 61 days in 2023.

What is Northrop Grumman's B-21 doing to its capital efficiency?

NOC's 31.3% incremental ROIC suggests B-21 and other new programs are earning exceptional returns. The +15.6% operating margin trend—best among defense contractors—indicates program economics are highly favorable. However, B-21 is fixed-price, creating cost overrun risk.

Which defense stock has the strongest balance sheet?

GD has the strongest balance sheet with 1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA, lowest among the Big 4 defense contractors. This provides M&A optionality and dividend safety. NOC (2.2x) and RTX (2.5x) are comfortable. LMT at 3.0x has the highest leverage, limiting flexibility.

Is defense spending increasing in 2025?

Yes. The FY2026 NDAA calls for $924.7B in defense spending, and the administration is targeting $1 trillion by 2026. NATO commitments (2% GDP minimum) are driving European demand. All four major contractors are positioned to benefit from this tailwind.

What is the best defense stock to buy in 2025?

It depends on your investment objective:

  • For income: GD (highest FCF yield, safest dividend)
  • For growth: NOC (best incremental ROIC, margin expansion)
  • For turnaround: RTX (improving ROIC trajectory)
  • For highest absolute returns: LMT (30% ROIC, but watch declining trend)

Methodology

Data Sources

  • Financial data: Sourced directly from SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings via EDGAR
  • ROIC calculation: NOPAT / Invested Capital (asset-based method using operating assets)
  • Incremental ROIC: ΔNOPAT / ΔInvested Capital (period-over-period)
  • 8Q Trend (Q.TREND8): OLS regression slope on trailing 8 quarters
  • Processing: MetricDuck automated filing analysis platform

Calculation Details

ROIC (Asset-Based):

ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital

Where:
- NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 - Tax Rate)
- Invested Capital = Total Assets - Current Liabilities - Excess Cash

Incremental ROIC:

Incremental ROIC = (NOPAT_t - NOPAT_t-1) / (Invested Capital_t - Invested Capital_t-1)

Q.TREND8: Ordinary Least Squares regression slope coefficient on trailing 8 quarterly observations, showing rate of change per quarter.

Limitations

  • NOC has limited 8Q trend data due to data gaps in certain quarters
  • Defense contractor gross margins often show anomalies due to COGS accounting practices
  • Classified program economics (B-21, NGAD) are not fully reflected in public filings
  • One-time charges create ROIC volatility that may not reflect underlying economics

Companies Analyzed


Disclaimer:

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, and you should not rely on it as such.

Important considerations:

  • Past performance does not guarantee future results
  • Defense contractors face significant geopolitical and political risks not captured in financial metrics
  • The author holds no positions in any of the stocks mentioned
  • Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions
  • Data is sourced from SEC filings, which may contain errors or be subject to restatement

Conflict of Interest Disclosure: MetricDuck provides financial analysis tools. This content demonstrates our analytical capabilities but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.


Explore More ROIC Analysis

This article is part of our comprehensive ROIC Analysis Hub, which covers sector benchmarks, peer comparisons, and screening frameworks.

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Last updated: November 30, 2025. Next update scheduled after Q4 2025 earnings (late January 2026).

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