Defense Stocks 2025: LMT's ROIC Declining While RTX Improves (8Q Data)
Wall Street ranks Lockheed Martin's 30% ROIC as best-in-class. But our 8-quarter trajectory analysis reveals LMT's capital efficiency is actually declining (-0.018 trend) while RTX improves (+0.004). The data suggests the market may be mispricing defense contractor quality.
Defense Contractor Capital Efficiency Rankings 2025: LMT, RTX, NOC, GD Deep Dive
Last Updated: November 30, 2025 Data Currency: Q3 2025 10-Q filings for all companies. LMT, RTX, NOC, GD
TL;DR: Lockheed Martin's 30% ROIC looks impressive—until you see the 8-quarter trajectory is declining (-0.018). RTX's lower 8.6% ROIC is actually improving (+0.004). The most differentiated finding: NOC's incremental ROIC of 31.3% suggests B-21 and space programs are generating exceptional returns on new capital. For investors prioritizing capital efficiency improvement over absolute levels, RTX and NOC offer more attractive trajectories than LMT.
Quick Comparison Table
Before diving deep, here's the executive summary of capital efficiency across the Big 4 defense contractors:
| Metric | LMT | RTX | NOC | GD | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC (TTM) | 30.1% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 14.6% | LMT |
| ROIC Trend (8Q) | ↓ -0.018 | ↑ +0.004 | N/A | ↑ +0.004 | RTX/GD |
| Incremental ROIC | 6.1% | 12.3% | 31.3% | 4.1% | NOC |
| ROIC Volatility | High (9.8%) | Low (2.4%) | N/A | V.Low (1.4%) | GD |
| Operating Margin | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 14.0% | GD |
| Oper Margin Trend | +0.1% | +2.3% | +15.6% | -0.7% | NOC |
| FCF Yield | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 5.4% | GD |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.0x | 2.5x | 2.2x | 1.2x | GD |
| Market Cap | $113B | $225B | $87B | $89B | RTX |
| Revenue (TTM) | $73.3B | $86.0B | $40.9B | $38.2B | RTX |
Source: SEC 10-Q/10-K filings via MetricDuck. Trend calculated via OLS regression on trailing 8 quarters.
Section 1: Why Capital Efficiency Matters in Defense
Defense contractors operate with economics invisible to traditional analysis. A typical tech company signs 1-3 year contracts. Lockheed Martin's F-35 program runs until 2070 and beyond—a 50+ year commitment that creates unique capital allocation dynamics.
The Unique Economics of Defense Contracts
Multi-decade contracts distort traditional metrics:
- The F-35 program represents $1.7 trillion in lifetime value
- Backlog-to-revenue ratios run 5-7x (vs 0.3-0.5x for tech companies)
- Government budget cycles create predictable but lagged earnings patterns
Cost-plus vs fixed-price contracts:
- Cost-plus contracts: Contractor reimbursed for costs + guaranteed margin (lower risk, lower returns)
- Fixed-price contracts: Contractor bears cost overrun risk (higher risk, potentially higher returns)
- LMT's F-35 is cost-plus for development, fixed-price for production—creating margin compression as volumes scale
Why ROIC trajectory matters more than absolute ROIC:
A company at 30% ROIC trending downward may be a worse investment than one at 8% ROIC trending upward. The trajectory reveals:
- Contract renewal economics
- Cost overrun emergence
- New program profitability
- Management capital allocation quality
This is the core insight that differentiates our analysis from surface-level P/E comparisons.
Section 2: ROIC Deep Dive - The Real Rankings
2.1 Current ROIC Snapshot
As of Q3 2025, here's how the Big 4 rank on trailing twelve-month ROIC:
- Lockheed Martin (LMT): 30.1% — The headline winner
- General Dynamics (GD): 14.6% — Most stable
- Northrop Grumman (NOC): 14.0% — Strong incremental
- RTX Corporation (RTX): 8.6% — Lowest but improving
If you stopped here, LMT looks like the obvious choice. But absolute ROIC is only half the story.
2.2 ROIC Trajectory Analysis (8-Quarter Trend)
Our 8-quarter trend analysis (Q.TREND8) reveals the direction of capital efficiency—a metric that predicts future performance better than point-in-time snapshots.
Lockheed Martin: DECLINING Capital Efficiency
LMT's ROIC has oscillated dramatically over the past 8 quarters:
| Quarter | ROIC | Incremental ROIC | 8Q Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | 34.7% | 21.0% | -0.004 |
| Q1 2024 | 29.6% | -3.6% | -0.007 |
| Q2 2024 | 31.3% | -10.0% | -0.006 |
| Q3 2024 | 31.3% | 19.4% | -0.004 |
| Q4 2024 | 11.9% | -103.0% | -0.016 |
| Q1 2025 | 32.4% | 15.0% | -0.011 |
| Q2 2025 | 9.6% | -43.2% | -0.025 |
| Q3 2025 | 30.1% | 6.1% | -0.018 |
Key observations:
- ROIC swings from 9.6% to 34.7% (25+ percentage point range)
- Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 saw dramatic drops, likely due to one-time charges
- The 8-quarter trend is consistently negative (-0.018) — ROIC is declining over time
- Volatility (9.8% standard deviation) is exceptionally high
RTX Corporation: IMPROVING Capital Efficiency
RTX tells the opposite story:
- ROIC improved from 6.5% to 8.6% over 8 quarters
- Positive trend coefficient: +0.004
- Low volatility (2.4% standard deviation)
- The 2020 UTC/Raytheon merger initially depressed ROIC, but synergies are materializing
What this means: RTX's lower absolute ROIC is misleading. The company is building capital efficiency while LMT's is eroding.
2.3 Incremental ROIC: The Hidden Metric
Incremental ROIC measures returns on new capital deployed: ΔNOPAT / ΔInvested Capital.
This is the single most differentiated metric in defense contractor analysis—and it reveals a story Wall Street misses entirely.
| Company | Historical ROIC | Incremental ROIC | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 30.1% | 6.1% | New capital earning LESS than legacy |
| RTX | 8.6% | 12.3% | New capital earning MORE than legacy |
| NOC | 14.0% | 31.3% | Exceptional new program returns |
| GD | 14.6% | 4.1% | Submarines are capital intensive |
The Moat Erosion Signal: A company with 30% historical ROIC but 6% incremental ROIC is eroding its competitive advantage. Every new dollar of capital deployed earns far less than the legacy business. LMT's 6.1% incremental ROIC vs 30% historical is a classic moat erosion pattern.
NOC's Exceptional Incremental ROIC (31.3%)
Northrop Grumman's 31.3% incremental ROIC stands out dramatically. This suggests:
- B-21 Raider bomber program is generating exceptional returns
- Space systems investments are paying off
- New contracts are more profitable than legacy programs
For investors, this is the hidden quality signal: NOC is building its moat while LMT may be eroding theirs.
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Section 3: Operating Margin Analysis
Operating margins reveal pricing power, cost discipline, and contract quality. For defense contractors, margin trajectory can signal cost overruns 2-3 quarters before they appear in earnings calls.
3.1 Current Operating Margins
| Company | Operating Margin (TTM) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| GD | 14.0% | Highest — diversified portfolio + Gulfstream |
| NOC | 10.6% | B-21 development phase, improving |
| RTX | 10.3% | Post-merger stabilization |
| LMT | 8.3% | Lowest — F-35 sustainment pressure |
GD's 14% operating margin is 69% higher than LMT's 8.3%. This reflects GD's diversification into commercial aerospace (Gulfstream) and IT services (GDIT), which carry higher margins than pure defense manufacturing.
3.2 Operating Margin Trajectory (8-Quarter Trend)
Here's where the analysis gets interesting:
| Company | Margin Trend (Q.TREND8) | Direction | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | +15.6% | ↑ Rapidly improving | B-21 program maturation |
| RTX | +2.3% | ↑ Steady improvement | Merger synergies |
| LMT | +0.1% | → Flat | Margin pressure contained |
| GD | -0.7% | ↓ Slight decline | Gulfstream delivery headwinds |
NOC's +15.6% margin trend is exceptional. This suggests the B-21 program is transitioning from development (capital intensive, negative margin impact) to early production (margin accretive). This is a leading indicator of future profitability.
3.3 What F-35 Cost Overruns Mean for LMT
The F-35 program's struggles are well-documented, but their financial impact is often underestimated:
GAO Findings (September 2025):
- F-35 deliveries averaged 238 days late (up from 61 days in 2023)
- Program now 80% over original budget ($1.7T vs $233B initial estimate)
- Lockheed received incentive fees despite late deliveries
Financial impact visible in our data:
- LMT's operating margin (8.3%) is lowest among peers
- Incremental ROIC (6.1%) suggests new F-35 production is margin-dilutive
- ROIC volatility (9.8%) reflects one-time charges from program adjustments
The data suggests: LMT's F-35 dominance comes at a capital efficiency cost. The program's fixed-price production contracts create margin pressure as volumes scale.
Section 4: Balance Sheet Strength
Defense contractors' balance sheets reveal M&A capacity, dividend sustainability, and financial flexibility. Net Debt/EBITDA trajectory is particularly informative—companies deleveraging quickly have more strategic optionality.
4.1 Net Debt/EBITDA Comparison
| Company | Net Debt/EBITDA | Rating | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| GD | 1.2x | Fortress | Strongest balance sheet |
| NOC | 2.2x | Comfortable | Investment grade cushion |
| RTX | 2.5x | Acceptable | Post-merger deleveraging |
| LMT | 3.0x | Elevated | Highest leverage among peers |
GD's 1.2x leverage is exceptional for a defense contractor. This provides:
- Capacity for opportunistic M&A
- Dividend safety cushion
- Flexibility for share buybacks
LMT's 3.0x leverage is elevated but manageable. However, combined with declining ROIC trajectory, it limits financial flexibility.
4.2 Leverage Trajectory
The direction of leverage matters as much as the absolute level:
| Company | Leverage Trajectory | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | Deleveraging fastest | Merger debt unwinding |
| GD | Stable at low levels | Maintaining optionality |
| NOC | Stable | Consistent capital structure |
| LMT | Slightly increasing | Funding programs + dividends |
RTX's deleveraging story: The 2020 merger with United Technologies created significant leverage. RTX has prioritized debt paydown, and the trajectory shows consistent improvement. This opens M&A optionality as leverage normalizes.
4.3 M&A Capacity
Defense sector consolidation is ongoing. Recent examples:
- L3Harris merger (2019)
- Raytheon/UTC merger (2020)
- Lockheed's proposed Aerojet acquisition (blocked by FTC)
Companies with low leverage and high FCF have the most optionality:
| Company | M&A Capacity | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| GD | Highest | 1.2x leverage + 5.4% FCF yield |
| NOC | High | 2.2x leverage + improving margins |
| RTX | Moderate | Deleveraging first priority |
| LMT | Limited | 3.0x leverage constrains flexibility |
Section 5: FCF Yield & Dividend Safety
Defense contractors are often held as income investments. FCF yield and payout sustainability are critical for dividend-focused investors.
5.1 FCF Yield Rankings
| Company | FCF Yield (TTM) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| GD | 5.4% | Highest cash yield |
| LMT | 4.0% | Solid FCF generation |
| RTX | 2.3% | Reinvesting in growth |
| NOC | 2.1% | B-21 investment consuming cash |
GD's 5.4% FCF yield stands out. Combined with its low leverage (1.2x), this provides exceptional dividend coverage.
5.2 Dividend Coverage Analysis
| Company | Dividend Yield | Payout Ratio (5Y Avg) | Safety Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 2.75% | 47% | ✅ Safe — conservative payout |
| GD | 1.84% | ~35% | ✅ Safe — low payout + high FCF |
| NOC | 1.6% | ~40% | ✅ Safe — conservative |
| RTX | 1.9% | 101% | ⚠️ Watch — historically high |
RTX's payout ratio concern: Over the past 5 years, RTX has averaged a 101% payout ratio—meaning dividends exceeded earnings. This is concerning but context matters:
- Merger integration costs depressed earnings temporarily
- FCF has improved as synergies materialize
- Management has signaled commitment to dividend growth
The data suggests: Monitor RTX's FCF conversion as merger integration completes. The high historical payout ratio should normalize.
5.3 Dividend Sustainability Verdict
For income investors, here's our assessment:
| Company | Dividend Safety | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GD | Safest | High — low leverage + high FCF yield |
| LMT | Safe | High — 47% payout ratio |
| NOC | Safe | High — conservative management |
| RTX | Improving | Medium — watch FCF trajectory |
Section 6: Program-Specific Analysis
Each defense contractor has signature programs that drive economics. Understanding program maturity and risk is essential for evaluating future capital efficiency.
6.1 Lockheed Martin: F-35 Dominance, but at What Cost?
The F-35 Lightning II is the most expensive weapons program in history:
- Program value: $1.7 trillion lifetime
- Budget overrun: 80% over original estimate
- Schedule delay: 10 years late for full operational capability
- Production deliveries: 238 days late on average (2024)
Financial impact:
- F-35 represents ~25% of LMT revenue
- Sustainment costs (maintenance, upgrades) are becoming the larger segment
- Fixed-price production contracts create margin pressure at scale
NGAD contract loss: In late 2024, Boeing won the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD/F-47) contract over Lockheed. This signals:
- Competitive position may be weakening
- Future fighter revenue shifts to Boeing
- LMT's aircraft dominance is no longer assured
6.2 RTX Corporation: Merger Integration Success Story
The 2020 merger combined United Technologies (Pratt & Whitney engines, Collins Aerospace) with Raytheon (missiles, defense systems):
- Defense backlog: $92 billion
- Commercial aerospace exposure: Pratt & Whitney engines for Airbus, Boeing
- Synergy target: $1 billion+ annual savings
Our data shows integration is working:
- ROIC improved from 6.5% to 8.6% (8Q trend: +0.004)
- Operating margin trend: +2.3%
- Incremental ROIC: 12.3% (higher than historical)
Risk factor: Tariff impact. RTX management guided to $850 million hit to 2025 operating profit from tariffs. Commercial aerospace recession would also create headwinds.
6.3 Northrop Grumman: B-21 High-Margin Opportunity
The B-21 Raider is the U.S. Air Force's next-generation stealth bomber:
- Fixed-price contract: NOC bears cost overrun risk
- First flight: 2023 (on schedule)
- Production: Ramping up at Palmdale, CA facility
Why our data shows exceptional economics:
- Incremental ROIC: 31.3% (highest among peers)
- Operating margin trend: +15.6% (exceptional improvement)
- This suggests B-21 contracts are highly profitable
Caveat: B-21 is a classified program. Limited public visibility creates opacity risk. However, the financial metrics suggest strong contract economics.
Space systems growth: NOC is also investing heavily in space:
- Sentinel ICBM replacement program
- Satellite systems
- Space Launch System (SLS) components
6.4 General Dynamics: The Stable Dividend Machine
GD is the most diversified of the Big 4, with four distinct business segments:
1. Aerospace (Gulfstream jets):
- Commercial business jet market leader
- Higher margins than pure defense
- Cyclical demand tied to corporate profits
2. Marine Systems (submarines):
- Virginia-class attack submarines
- Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines
- Multi-decade backlog but capital intensive
3. Combat Systems:
- Abrams tanks, Stryker vehicles
- Land systems for Army contracts
4. Technologies (GDIT):
- IT services for government agencies
- Higher margin, lower capital intensity
Why GD has the most stable ROIC:
- Diversification reduces program-specific volatility
- ROIC volatility: only 1.4% (lowest among peers)
- Gulfstream provides commercial revenue cushion
- IT services segment is asset-light
Section 7: Sector Benchmarks & Context
7.1 Defense vs Industrial Sector ROIC
How do defense contractors compare to the broader industrial sector?
| Benchmark | ROIC Range | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Defense sector average | 12-15% | Government contracts, stable but regulated |
| Industrial sector average | 10-12% | Broader manufacturing base |
| LMT | 30.1% | 2-3x sector average (exceptional) |
| RTX | 8.6% | Below average (merger drag) |
| NOC | 14.0% | At sector average |
| GD | 14.6% | At sector average |
LMT's 30% ROIC is exceptional in any sector—but remember the declining trajectory and low incremental ROIC. The historical returns may not persist.
7.2 Government Budget Tailwinds
All four contractors benefit from increasing defense spending:
| Budget Metric | Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 NDAA | $924.7 billion | +2.4% YoY |
| Administration target | $1 trillion by 2026 | Ambitious but signaled |
| NATO commitments | 2% GDP minimum | Driving European demand |
Geopolitical drivers:
- Ukraine conflict sustaining munitions demand
- Taiwan tensions driving naval investment
- Middle East instability supporting missile defense
All four contractors are positioned to benefit. The question is which will convert budget growth into superior capital efficiency.
Section 8: Investment Framework (Balanced with Leans)
Different investors have different objectives. Here's how the data maps to investment styles:
8.1 For Income Investors
The data suggests: GD offers the best combination of FCF yield (5.4%), dividend safety, and balance sheet strength.
| Criteria | GD | LMT | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCF Yield | 5.4% | 4.0% | GD |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.2x | 3.0x | GD |
| Payout Ratio | ~35% | 47% | GD |
| Dividend Yield | 1.84% | 2.75% | LMT |
LMT's higher dividend yield comes with higher leverage and margin pressure risk. For pure income, GD's lower yield is compensated by superior safety.
8.2 For Growth Investors
The data suggests: NOC's exceptional incremental ROIC (31.3%) and improving margin trajectory (+15.6%) indicate B-21 and space programs are generating strong returns on new capital.
| Criteria | NOC | Others |
|---|---|---|
| Incremental ROIC | 31.3% | 4-12% |
| Operating Margin Trend | +15.6% | -0.7% to +2.3% |
| New Program Upside | B-21, Space | Mixed |
NOC is reinvesting at the highest returns. For growth-oriented investors, this is the quality signal.
8.3 For Value Investors
The data suggests: RTX's improving ROIC trajectory and merger deleveraging could mean the market is undervaluing post-merger efficiency gains.
| Criteria | RTX | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC Trend | +0.004 | Improving |
| Incremental ROIC | 12.3% | Above historical 8.6% |
| Leverage | 2.5x → declining | Improvement |
| P/E (Forward) | 25.8x | Not cheap, but deserved? |
RTX trades at a premium, but improving fundamentals may justify it. The merger thesis appears to be working.
8.4 For Conservative Investors
The data suggests: GD's low ROIC volatility (1.4% std dev) and diversified business mix provides the most predictable returns.
| Criteria | GD | Others |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC Volatility | 1.4% | 2.4-9.8% |
| Business Diversification | 4 segments | 2-3 segments |
| Balance Sheet | 1.2x leverage | 2.2-3.0x |
| Management Style | Conservative | Varies |
For investors seeking predictability over maximum returns, GD is the clear choice.
Section 9: Risks & Red Flags
Every investment has risks. Here's what to monitor for each company:
9.1 Lockheed Martin Risks
| Risk | Severity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC trajectory declining | High | Trend: -0.018 over 8 quarters |
| Incremental ROIC below historical | High | 6.1% vs 30% = moat erosion signal |
| NGAD contract loss | Medium | F-47 awarded to Boeing |
| F-35 sustainment costs | Medium | Margin pressure visible |
| Elevated leverage | Medium | 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA |
9.2 RTX Corporation Risks
| Risk | Severity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Tariff impact | High | $850M hit to 2025 profit guided |
| High historical payout ratio | Medium | 5-year average 101% |
| Commercial aerospace exposure | Medium | Recession would pressure Pratt & Whitney |
| Merger complexity | Low | Integration mostly complete |
9.3 Northrop Grumman Risks
| Risk | Severity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| B-21 cost overrun risk | High | Fixed-price contract structure |
| Limited 8Q trend data | Medium | Data gaps limit full analysis |
| Classified program opacity | Medium | Less visibility than peers |
| Concentration risk | Medium | B-21 + Sentinel dominate backlog |
9.4 General Dynamics Risks
| Risk | Severity | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gulfstream demand cyclicality | Medium | Business jet market is cyclical |
| Submarine program delays | Medium | Supply chain constraints |
| Lowest incremental ROIC | Low | 4.1% suggests capital-intensive growth |
| Margin trajectory declining | Low | -0.7% trend is slight |
Section 10: Our Subjective Interpretation
We've presented the data objectively. Now here's our honest assessment, with appropriate humility about uncertainty.
Ranking by Investor Objective
| Objective | Best Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Capital Efficiency Trajectory | NOC | Medium-High | 31.3% incremental ROIC + margin expansion |
| Best Balance Sheet | GD | High | 1.2x leverage, clear winner |
| Best Turnaround Story | RTX | Medium | Merger working, ROIC improving |
| Highest Risk/Reward | NOC | Medium | B-21 could be exceptional or problematic |
| Best Dividend Safety | GD | High | Low payout + high FCF yield |
| Highest Absolute ROIC | LMT | High (for now) | 30.1%, but declining |
The Contrarian Insight
Conventional wisdom: LMT has the best ROIC (30%), therefore it's the highest quality defense contractor.
What the data suggests: LMT's declining trajectory (-0.018), high volatility (9.8%), and low incremental ROIC (6.1%) signal potential moat erosion. The company's 30% ROIC may not persist.
For investors prioritizing capital efficiency improvement over absolute levels, RTX and NOC offer more attractive trajectories than LMT, despite LMT's higher current ROIC.
Overall Verdict
| Investor Type | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Income-focused | GD | High |
| Growth-focused | NOC | Medium |
| Value-focused | RTX | Medium |
| Momentum-focused | NOC | Medium |
| Conservative | GD | High |
The honest uncertainty: Defense contractors are affected by geopolitical factors, budget politics, and program execution risk that are difficult to forecast. Our data provides edge on capital efficiency analysis, but macro risks remain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lockheed Martin's current ROIC?
LMT's trailing twelve-month ROIC is 30.1%, the highest among major defense contractors. However, the 8-quarter trend shows decline from 34.7%, with a negative trend coefficient of -0.018. This suggests capital efficiency is eroding.
Which defense stock has the best capital efficiency?
It depends on how you define "best." LMT has highest absolute ROIC (30.1%), but NOC has highest incremental ROIC (31.3%) indicating new investments are generating superior returns. For trajectory improvement, RTX shows the strongest positive trend (+0.004).
Is RTX's ROIC improving after the merger?
Yes. RTX's ROIC has improved from 6.5% to 8.6% with a positive 8-quarter trend of +0.004, suggesting merger synergies with United Technologies are materializing. Incremental ROIC of 12.3% (above historical 8.6%) confirms new capital deployment is earning higher returns.
What is incremental ROIC and why does it matter?
Incremental ROIC measures returns on NEW capital deployed (ΔNOPAT/ΔInvested Capital). A company with high historical ROIC but low incremental ROIC is eroding its competitive advantage. LMT's 6.1% incremental vs 30% historical is a classic moat erosion pattern.
Which defense contractor has the safest dividend?
GD offers the safest dividend with a 5.4% FCF yield, 1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA, and conservative ~35% payout ratio. LMT's 2.75% yield is also well-covered with a 47% payout ratio. RTX's historically high payout ratio (101% 5-year average) warrants monitoring.
How do F-35 cost overruns affect Lockheed Martin's financials?
F-35 sustainment costs and fixed-price production contracts are creating margin pressure. This is visible in LMT's declining ROIC trajectory (-0.018) and low incremental ROIC (6.1% vs 30% historical). The GAO reported 238-day average delays in 2024, up from 61 days in 2023.
What is Northrop Grumman's B-21 doing to its capital efficiency?
NOC's 31.3% incremental ROIC suggests B-21 and other new programs are earning exceptional returns. The +15.6% operating margin trend—best among defense contractors—indicates program economics are highly favorable. However, B-21 is fixed-price, creating cost overrun risk.
Which defense stock has the strongest balance sheet?
GD has the strongest balance sheet with 1.2x Net Debt/EBITDA, lowest among the Big 4 defense contractors. This provides M&A optionality and dividend safety. NOC (2.2x) and RTX (2.5x) are comfortable. LMT at 3.0x has the highest leverage, limiting flexibility.
Is defense spending increasing in 2025?
Yes. The FY2026 NDAA calls for $924.7B in defense spending, and the administration is targeting $1 trillion by 2026. NATO commitments (2% GDP minimum) are driving European demand. All four major contractors are positioned to benefit from this tailwind.
What is the best defense stock to buy in 2025?
It depends on your investment objective:
- For income: GD (highest FCF yield, safest dividend)
- For growth: NOC (best incremental ROIC, margin expansion)
- For turnaround: RTX (improving ROIC trajectory)
- For highest absolute returns: LMT (30% ROIC, but watch declining trend)
Methodology
Data Sources
- Financial data: Sourced directly from SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings via EDGAR
- ROIC calculation: NOPAT / Invested Capital (asset-based method using operating assets)
- Incremental ROIC: ΔNOPAT / ΔInvested Capital (period-over-period)
- 8Q Trend (Q.TREND8): OLS regression slope on trailing 8 quarters
- Processing: MetricDuck automated filing analysis platform
Calculation Details
ROIC (Asset-Based):
ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital
Where:
- NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 - Tax Rate)
- Invested Capital = Total Assets - Current Liabilities - Excess Cash
Incremental ROIC:
Incremental ROIC = (NOPAT_t - NOPAT_t-1) / (Invested Capital_t - Invested Capital_t-1)
Q.TREND8: Ordinary Least Squares regression slope coefficient on trailing 8 quarterly observations, showing rate of change per quarter.
Limitations
- NOC has limited 8Q trend data due to data gaps in certain quarters
- Defense contractor gross margins often show anomalies due to COGS accounting practices
- Classified program economics (B-21, NGAD) are not fully reflected in public filings
- One-time charges create ROIC volatility that may not reflect underlying economics
Companies Analyzed
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) — CIK: 0000936468
- RTX Corporation (RTX) — CIK: 0000101829
- Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) — CIK: 0001133421
- General Dynamics Corporation (GD) — CIK: 0000040533
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, and you should not rely on it as such.
Important considerations:
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Defense contractors face significant geopolitical and political risks not captured in financial metrics
- The author holds no positions in any of the stocks mentioned
- Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions
- Data is sourced from SEC filings, which may contain errors or be subject to restatement
Conflict of Interest Disclosure: MetricDuck provides financial analysis tools. This content demonstrates our analytical capabilities but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Last updated: November 30, 2025. Next update scheduled after Q4 2025 earnings (late January 2026).
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