Amphenol's FY2025 10-K contains a number that doesn't belong in a connector company's filing: 31% operating margins in Communications Solutions. The segment nearly doubled revenue to $12.1 billion, generating software-like profitability on physical connectors. But the same filing reveals that APH's $10.5 billion CommScope CCS acquisition — the second piece of a $12.6 billion systematic dismantlement — will dilute those margins by 150-300 basis points in 2026. The investment question: is the franchise expanding faster than margins are diluting?
The $650B AI capex headline is real — three of four hyperscalers filed specific guidance with the SEC. But the filings reveal what the headlines miss: Meta's actual infrastructure commitment is ~$250B (not $125B), three of four face negative free cash flow at guided levels, and none disclosed ROI timelines for the largest corporate infrastructure bet in history.
CoreWeave grew revenue 168% to $5.1 billion in fiscal 2025 and sits on $60.7 billion in committed backlog — more than 11 years at the current run rate. But the 10-K reveals debt service of $4.4 billion already exceeds the $3.1 billion in operating cash flow, interest coverage has fallen below 2.0x, and the company must raise $18-20 billion in 2026 just to refinance and keep building. At $71.61 per share, the stock prices in the growth — but not the cost of funding it.
Vertiv Holdings generated $10.2 billion in FY2025 revenue with 21.2% ROIC and doubled its backlog to $15 billion. But the 10-K contains no remaining performance obligation disclosure — the word 'backlog' appears only in narrative sections. Meanwhile, Q4 organic growth was Americas +46.2% against EMEA -14.1% and APAC -9.3%, and a $1.14 billion acquisition allocating 91% to intangibles accelerates amortization by $74 million per year. At ~73x trailing P/E — double the ~35x for Schneider Electric and Eaton — the valuation prices a global compounder. The filing shows a US pure-play with an unverifiable backlog.
Alphabet reported $132.2 billion in net income for FY2025 — a record. But the 10-K reveals $149.1 billion in contractually locked purchase commitments, $24.1 billion in unrealized equity gains inflating headline growth, and a tax timing benefit that boosted cash flow by $13.5 billion. Adjusted earnings grew 15.6%, not 32%, and free cash flow was flat. The investment question: can Google Cloud's 956-basis-point margin expansion convert the largest corporate infrastructure buildout in history into returns?
Keysight Technologies reported record Q1 FY2026 revenue of $1.6 billion, beating consensus by $60 million with non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 topping estimates by 9%. But the 10-Q reveals a $101 million tax benefit from an audit settlement drove the effective tax rate to -42%, inflating GAAP EPS by approximately 40%. Beneath the tax windfall, 14% organic growth — double the FY2025 pace — and a 96% Q/Q cash flow surge to $441M with 1.57x cash conversion signal a genuine inflection in Keysight's demand trajectory, driven by AI data center infrastructure buildout.
Equinix generated $4,530M in Adjusted EBITDA and negative $400M in free cash flow in FY2025 — a $4.9 billion definitional chasm. At $766 per share, the world's largest data center REIT trades at 22× FFO while running FCF-negative for the first time, funding $1.86B in dividends entirely from capital markets while betting $4.3B that AI demand will fill 52 data centers under construction. The entire bull/bear debate collapses into one number: $284M in 'recurring capex.'
Vertiv Holdings reported 168.8% net income growth in FY 2025, but our earnings quality decomposition reveals that $203.5 million — nearly one-quarter — came from a non-repeating tax rate correction. The remaining 76% is durable operating leverage on $10.2 billion in revenue, backed by a $15 billion backlog with SaaS-like deferred revenue visibility. But the filing also reveals asymmetric risks: no disclosed cancellation penalties on that backlog, a widening GAAP-to-adjusted earnings gap, and percentage-of-completion estimation risk that grows with project scale.
Amphenol posted 52% revenue growth, 450bps of margin expansion, and closed its largest acquisition in history. The stock dropped. DuPont decomposition explains why: 86% of the balance sheet growth came from a single quarter, and incremental returns fell below the cost of debt.
86% of Amazon's ROIC decline is capital turnover compression — not margin deterioration. The 10-K reveals why: $59B in new servers, a depreciation reversal on AI hardware, and $440B in irrevocable commitments. At $200B capex, the margin of safety is compressing.
Meta's Family of Apps earns a 51.5% operating margin. Its ROIC is declining at -6.3 points per quarter. Both facts are true simultaneously. The gap between them reveals everything about the largest AI infrastructure bet in advertising history — and the accounting policies designed to make it look cheaper than it is.
Micron Technology reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $23.9 billion, nearly tripling year-over-year as the AI-driven memory supercycle delivered unprecedented pricing power. Gross margins hit 74.4% — double the year-ago level — while the balance sheet flipped from net debt to $6.5 billion net cash after $4.6 billion in debt prepayments. But the 10-Q reveals a deteriorating risk landscape with new tariff and trade investigation risks, a widening patent litigation front, and $27 billion in FY2026 capital commitments that test whether peak-cycle returns can fund the next generation of capacity.
FIX has 40.8% ROIC. PWR has 9.7%—despite 4x the revenue. The 'data center exposure' explanation is incomplete. The full story: FIX earns 2.5x higher margins AND turns assets 30% faster. Here's the DuPont analysis of six infrastructure contractors building America's data centers.
Both Jabil (29% ROIC) and Celestica (39% ROIC) rank among the best capital allocators in EMS. But DuPont decomposition reveals they get there through opposite mechanisms — JBL wins on turnover (13x), CLS wins on margin (10.2%). The counter-intuitive finding: CLS has better metrics AND faster growth, yet trades at an apparent discount. Here's what the data reveals.
Oracle's -$10B Q2 free cash flow triggered alarm bells. Decomposition reveals the collapse is 70% working capital timing, not structural deterioration. The real story: $248B in off-balance sheet lease commitments dwarfs their $100B balance sheet debt. This is the largest infrastructure bet in enterprise software history.
Three fuel cell companies target AI data center power, but execution quality varies dramatically. Bloom Energy's +4.5% ROIC vs Plug Power's -104% isn't a small difference—it's a fundamental divide between a functioning business and a value destroyer. Our SEC filing analysis reveals warning signs even for the winner.
GE Vernova's Electrification segment grew +32% YoY, but the company trades at 98.9x earnings with a 3.57% ROIC. Eaton's Electrical Americas grew +15% with 30.3% operating margins—twice GEV's margin at half the P/E. MetricDuck data shows why quality beats hype in AI infrastructure.
At $25B market cap and 41x revenue, Rocket Lab prices in Neutron success. Our 5-pass filing analysis reveals what the narrative misses: Launch Services growth inflated 32% by catch-up accounting, backlog concentration (69% top 5) exceeds revenue concentration, and gross margins compressed from 55% to 37%. Here's what to watch before the rocket flies.
AI infrastructure spending is approaching $500B annually across hyperscalers alone. Our research library covers capex efficiency metrics, depreciation manipulation detection, concentration risk screening, nuclear power for data centers, and supply chain analysis—everything you need to evaluate AI infrastructure investments.
The conventional wisdom says NuScale (SMR) is safer because it has NRC approval. But filing data reveals SMR paid $495M—$6.9M per reactor—to trigger a non-binding customer agreement. OKLO has regulatory uncertainty but uncommitted cash.
VST's +321% appreciation prices in nuclear optionality, but ignores a $510M battery fire disaster and antitrust lawsuit. CEG's 'capacity price boom' masks 970bps margin spread between regions. TLN's 0.9x interest coverage means debt service consumes nearly ALL operating income. We analyzed 9 filings to surface what the market overlooks.
While Caterpillar is up +60% YTD, most see it as construction/mining. But CAT's Energy & Transportation segment—which powers AI data centers—is the real growth story at +16.8% YoY with stable 20% margins.
EQIX's capex intensity jumped +8.7pp in 8 quarters. CCI's ROIC collapsed to -12%. ANET's customer concentration is HIGH (Microsoft + Meta). Standard screeners show none of this. Here's our 4-signal framework for screening AI data center infrastructure stocks.
Learn how to monitor $370B in AI infrastructure spending quarterly with a 3-metric framework. Track capex/revenue trends, depreciation manipulation signals, and growth alignment across Google, Microsoft, Amazon & Meta. Updated December 2025 with Meta's $600B commitment and Michael Burry's depreciation thesis.
Michael Burry warns Big Tech will understate depreciation by $176B through 2028. Amazon is taking a contrarian approach—shortening useful lives and accepting a $700M profit hit while peers extend to boost earnings. Learn how to screen for earnings quality using the capex/depreciation ratio.