CHEVRON CORP (CVX) Stock Analysis
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) Stock Analysis
Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. Data as of Q4 2025.
Overall Grade: F (Concerning)
CHEVRON CORP faces challenges in financial performance that warrant careful analysis.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 6.8% | Below expectations |
| FCF Margin | 8.8% | Healthy cash flow |
| Debt/Equity | 0.3x | Conservative leverage |
Investment Thesis: Financial metrics indicate concerning business quality with areas requiring attention.
Explore CHEVRON CORP: Earnings History | Filing Intelligence | ROIC Analysis
Profitability: CHEVRON CORP earns 6.8% ROIC, Bottom 50% in Energy
CHEVRON CORP's trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 6.8% ranks Bottom 50% in Energy companies (sector median: 6.9%), driven by NOPAT margin of 6.6% combined with asset turnover of 0.7x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. Gross margin of 42.8% with operating margin at 10.4% reflects strong pricing power.
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 6.8% | Warning | Below sector median of 6.9% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 7.5% | Warning | Moderate equity returns |
| Gross Margin | 42.8% | Good | Strong pricing power |
| Operating Margin | 10.4% | Good | Moderate operational efficiency |
Cash Flow: CHEVRON CORP generates $16.6B FCF at 8.8% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters
CHEVRON CORP generated $16.6B in free cash flow (TTM), a 8.8% FCF margin, a margin that ranks Top 50% in Energy. Operating cash flow exceeds net income by 2.8x, indicating high earnings quality. FCF was positive in N/A of the last 8 quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 8.8% | Adequate | Healthy cash generation |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $16.6B | Good | Positive cash generation |
| OCF/Net Income | 2.8x | Excellent | High earnings quality |
| FCF Consistency (8Q) | N/A | Warning | Variable cash flow |
Balance Sheet: CHEVRON CORP at 0.3x leverage
CHEVRON CORP's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3x reflects conservative leverage. Total debt of $50.7B offset by $7.3B in cash. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Equity | 0.3x | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| Net Cash Position | $-43.4B | Warning | Net debt position |
Valuation: CHEVRON CORP trades at 22.9x earnings
CHEVRON CORP trades at a P/E of 22.9x. Free cash flow yield of 5.9% offers attractive cash returns relative to price.
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.9x | Adequate | Premium valuation |
| EV/Sales | 1.5x | Excellent | Attractive revenue multiple |
| FCF Yield | 5.9% | Good | Attractive cash return |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% | Good | Meaningful income |
Capital Allocation: CHEVRON CORP returns 8.8% shareholder yield
CHEVRON CORP's total shareholder yield is 8.8% (dividends 4.5% + buybacks 4.3%). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-06.
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Shareholder Yield | 8.8% | Excellent | Dividend + buyback yield combined |
| Buyback Yield | 4.3% | Good | Active share repurchases |
| Total Capital Returned (TTM) | $25.2B | Good | Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders |
Sector Rankings
| Metric | Value | Percentile | vs Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 6.8% | Bottom 50% | 1.0x below |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 8.8% | Top 50% | 1.0x at |
| Gross Margin | 42.8% | Top 50% | 1.3x above |
| Operating Margin | 10.4% | Top 50% | 1.2x above |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 7.5% | Bottom 50% | 0.9x below |
| P/E Ratio | 22.9x | N/A | - |
Financial Scorecard
| Metric | CVX | Rating | Sector Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 6.8% | Warning | Bottom 50% of sector (median: 6.9%) |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | 8.8% | Adequate | Top 50% of sector (median: 8.8%) |
| Gross Margin | 42.8% | Good | Top 50% of sector (median: 31.9%) |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 27.2% | Excellent | Conservative capital structure |
| P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) | 22.9x | Adequate | Fair value |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 5.9% | Good | Solid cash yield |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is CHEVRON CORP's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.8%. This compares below the sector median of 6.9%. An ROIC below 8% suggests the company may be destroying shareholder value.
Q: What is CHEVRON CORP's Free Cash Flow Margin?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) has a free cash flow margin of 8.8%, generating $16.6 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. A FCF margin between 5-10% is typical for capital-intensive businesses.
Q: Is CHEVRON CORP stock overvalued or undervalued?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) trades at a P/E ratio of 22.9x, which is above the sector median of N/A. The EV/Sales multiple is 1.5x. Free cash flow yield is 5.9%, which is in line with market averages.
Q: Does CHEVRON CORP pay a dividend?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) currently pays a dividend yield of 4.5%. Including share buybacks, the total shareholder yield is 8.8%. A yield above 4% is attractive for income investors, though sustainability should be verified through payout ratio analysis.
Q: What is CHEVRON CORP's revenue and earnings growth?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) declined revenue by 6.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share decreased by 31.8% compared to the prior year. Revenue decline may indicate market challenges or industry headwinds.
Q: Is CHEVRON CORP buying back stock?
CHEVRON CORP (CVX) repurchased $12.1 billion of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 4.3%.
Q: How does CHEVRON CORP compare to competitors in Energy?
Compared to other companies in Energy, CHEVRON CORP (CVX) shows: ROIC of 6.8% is below the sector median of 6.9% (Bottom 49%). FCF margin of 8.8% trails the sector median of 8.8% (Top 50% of sector). Gross margin at 42.8% is 10.9 percentage points higher than sector peers. These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Energy companies with available SEC filings.
Q: What warning signs should I watch for with CHEVRON CORP?
Investors in CHEVRON CORP (CVX) should monitor these potential warning signs: 1) ROIC has been declining, potentially signaling deteriorating competitive position. Regular monitoring of SEC filings and quarterly trends is recommended.
Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-06. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.
Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.
Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.