TGT
TARGET CORP
Consumer Discretionary • CIK: 0000027419
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Market Cap
$47.90B
P/E (TTM)
12.9x
Rev Growth (TTM)
-1.7%
Net Margin (TTM)
3.5%
FCF Yield (TTM)
5.9%
FCF Margin (TTM)
2.7%
Filing Intelligence
6.0/10
10-K filed Mar 11, 2026 • FY 2025
Executive Summary
Challenging retail environment with cautious consumers and tariff volatility impacted sales and profitability.. Management is executing a multi-year business transformation focused on merchandising,...
Key Concerns
- ●Operating cash flow declined due to lower earnings and working capital changes, while capital expenditures increased for strategic...
- ●Capital allocation remains disciplined, prioritizing profitable growth, dividends, and share repurchases, though ROIC has declined.
- ●Self-insurance accrual for general liability, workers' compensation, and medical/dental claims increased from $772 million to $881 million,...
Cash Flow Health
Free Cash Flow7/8 positive
TTM$2.8B
Q4 '26
$2.2B+1371%
Q3 '26
$149M-85%
FCF Margin
TTM2.7%
Q4 '267.2%+1121%
Sector: 2.7%Above Avg
OCF Margin6.3%
OCF/NI1.77x
CapEx Coverage1.8x
FCF Yield5.9%
FCF Growth (2Y)–
Cash Conversion Cycle
3 days
DSO: 0+DIO: 64−DPO: 61
Capital Allocation & Returns
Shareholder Friendly
Total Shareholder YieldTTM
TTM5.1%
Div Yield4.3%
+Buyback (TTM)0.9%
Strong capital returns to shareholders
Dividend & Payout Metrics
Dividend Yield (TTM)4.3%
FCF Payout Ratio72.4%
Free Cash Flow (TTM)$2.8B
Stock Repurchases (TTM)$408.0M
Capital Return / FCF86.8%
Est. Dividends Paid (TTM)$2.1B
Shows how management rewards shareholders
Operational Efficiency & Returns
Return on Invested CapitalTTM
10.9%
Stable
-0.0% YoY-2.4%
P25MedianP75
75th pctl (med: 0.1%)
DuPont BreakdownROIC = Margin × Turn × (1+D/E)
NOPAT Margin
3.8%
8Q: 4.0%
Asset Turnover
1.80x
8Q: 1.78x
Leverage (1+D/E)
1.89x
D/E: 0.89x
DuPont: 12.9% ≈ 10.9% ROIC
Asset & CapEx Efficiency
Fixed Asset Turn
3.13x
8Q:3.05x
+25.3%
Invested Cap Turn
2.87x
8Q:2.89x
+5.7%
CapEx Intensity
10.2%
8Q:9.2%
CapEx/Depreciation
1.19x
Asset-based ROIC formula
QUARTERLY TRENDS
Last 8 quarters + TTM
| Metric | TTM | Q4 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $104.8B | $30.5B↑20.5% | $25.3B↑0.2% | $25.2B↑5.7% | $23.8B↓22.9% | $30.9B↑20.4% | $25.7B↑0.8% | $25.5B↑3.8% | $24.5B |
Operating Income | $5.1B | $1.4B↑45.6% | $948.0M↓28.0% | $1.3B↓10.5% | $1.5B↑0.3% | $1.5B↑25.6% | $1.2B↓28.6% | $1.6B↑26.2% | $1.3B |
Net Income | $3.7B | $1.0B↑51.7% | $689.0M↓26.3% | $935.0M↓9.7% | $1.0B↓6.1% | $1.1B↑29.2% | $854.0M↓28.4% | $1.2B↑26.5% | $942.0M |
Operating Cash Flow | $6.6B | $3.1B↑173.0% | $1.1B↓45.9% | $2.1B↑657.5% | $275.0M↓91.6% | $3.3B↑345.1% | $739.0M↓67.0% | $2.2B↑103.3% | $1.1B |
Free Cash Flow | $2.8B | $2.2B↑1371.1% | $149.0M↓85.2% | $1.0B↑295.9% | $-515.0M↓121.8% | $2.4B↑2716.7% | $84.0M↓94.7% | $1.6B↑274.5% | $427.0M |
Total Equity | N/A |
Valuation Analysis
Fair Value
Price-to-EarningsTTM
12.9x
Volatile
8Q: 55.5x-2497%
Valuation Lenses
Earnings
12.9x
vs – sector
Cash Flow
20.7x
EV/FCF vs –
Growth-Adj
–PEG
N/A
Quality-Adj
1.2P/E per %ROIC
ROIC: 10.9%
Shareholder Returns
Dividend
4.3%
Buyback
0.9%
Total Yield
5.1%
Market Cap$47.90B
EV$58.69B
Multi-angle valuation analysis with sector context
Business Quality & Moat
Overall Quality Score
92/100
Exceptional
Composite score: Returns (40%) + Consistency (30%) + Earnings Quality (30%)
Returns on Capital
Return on Equity (ROE)Above Avg
24.2%
8Q:–
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)Top 25%
10.9%
8Q:–
-2.4%
vs Sector:0.1%
DuPont Analysis (ROIC = NOPAT Margin × Asset Turnover)
NOPAT Margin: 3.8%
Asset Turnover: 1.80x
Earnings Quality
Cash Conversion
1.77x
OCF / Net Income ✓
FCF Consistency
–
Positive quarters
Competitive Moat Indicators
Pricing Power
Gross Margin27.9%
Capital Efficiency
Invested Capital Turnover2.87x
Working Capital
Cash Conversion Cycle3 days
Growth Quality & Momentum
Low Quality
Growth Quality Score
48/100
Growth 40%
Margins 30%
FCF 20%
Consistency 10%
Growth Rates
Revenue Growth YoY
-1.7%
OpInc Growth YoY
-5.9%
EPS Growth YoY
-8.4%
FCF 3Y CAGR
N/A
Growth Quality Analysis
⚠Sustainability Index: 3.0/10 - Growth sustainability concerns
Margin Quality & Sustainability
Moderate
Profitability Cascade
Gross
27.9%
Operating
4.9%
Above Avg in sector
Net
3.5%
Margins Unknown
Earnings Quality Signals
SBC / Revenue
—
FCF vs Net Gap
-0.8 pts
FCF: 2.7% | Net: 3.5%
Quality = stability + cash conversion + low dilution
Balance Sheet & Solvency
Adequate
Net Debt / EBITDA
–Net Debt: $8.84B
Interest Coverage
–
Balance sheet risk & solvency analysis