GEO
GEO GROUP INC
Materials • CIK: 0000923796
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Market Cap
$2.82B
P/E (TTM)
11.9x
Rev Growth (TTM)
-70.6%
Net Margin (TTM)
33.4%
FCF Yield (TTM)
0.9%
FCF Margin (TTM)
3.7%
Cash Flow Health
Free Cash Flow6/8 positive
TTM$26M
Q3 '25
$-14M-700%
Q2 '25
$2M-94%
FCF Margin
TTM3.7%
Q3 '25-2.1%-660%
Sector: 0.8%Above Avg
OCF Margin29.2%
OCF/NI0.88x
CapEx Coverage1.1x
FCF Yield0.9%
FCF Growth (2Y)-42%
Cash Conversion Cycle
200 days
DSO: 200+DIO: –−DPO: –
Capital Allocation & Returns
Total Shareholder Yield
TTM0.0%
Div Yield0.0%
Insufficient data
Dividend & Payout Metrics
Dividend Yield (TTM)0.0%
Free Cash Flow (TTM)$26.3M
Capital Return / FCF0.0%
Est. Dividends Paid (TTM)$0
Shows how management rewards shareholders
Operational Efficiency & Returns
Return on Invested CapitalTTM
6.1%
Stable
-0.4% YoY-3.1%
P25MedianP75
75th pctl (med: 0.1%)
DuPont BreakdownROIC = Margin × Turn × (1+D/E)
NOPAT Margin
25.3%
8Q: 8.7%
Asset Turnover
0.19x
8Q: 0.66x
Leverage (1+D/E)
2.02x
D/E: 1.02x
DuPont: 10.0% ≈ 6.1% ROIC
Asset & CapEx Efficiency
Fixed Asset Turn
0.38x
8Q:1.26x
-13.6%
Invested Cap Turn
0.24x
8Q:0.80x
-8.6%
CapEx Intensity
6.2%
8Q:3.0%
CapEx/Depreciation
1.40x
Asset-based ROIC formula
QUARTERLY TRENDS
Last 8 quarters + TTM
| Metric | TTM | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $712.8M | $682.3M↑7.3% | $636.2M↑5.2% | $604.6M↑150.0% | $-1.2B↓300.7% | $603.1M↓0.7% | $607.2M↑0.2% | $605.7M↓0.4% | $608.3M |
Operating Income | $241.6M | $40.7M↓43.5% | $72.0M↑18.0% | $61.0M↓10.2% | $67.9M↓17.6% | $82.4M↑2.8% | $80.1M↑0.7% | $79.6M↓5.0% | $83.8M |
Net Income | $237.3M | $173.9M↑497.6% | $29.1M↑48.8% | $19.6M↑32.8% | $14.7M↓44.1% | $26.3M↑181.0% | $-32.5M↓272.6% | $18.8M↓10.1% | $21.0M |
Operating Cash Flow | $208.4M | $79.6M↑103.1% | $39.2M↓45.0% | $71.2M↑285.8% | $18.5M↓83.1% | $109.3M↑249.8% | $31.2M↓62.5% | $83.3M↑74.6% | $47.7M |
Free Cash Flow | $26.3M | $-14.1M↓700.3% | $2.4M↓94.2% | $40.5M↑1845.2% | $-2.3M↓102.6% | $90.5M↑1225.3% | $6.8M↓90.0% | $68.5M↑142.3% | $28.3M |
Total Equity | N/A |
Valuation Analysis
Fair Value
Price-to-EarningsTTM
11.9x
Volatile
8Q: 80.9x+6270%
Multiple expansion without fundamental improvement
Valuation Lenses
Earnings
11.9x
vs – sector
Cash Flow
163.0x
EV/FCF vs –
Growth-Adj
0.0xPEG
Undervalued for growth
Quality-Adj
2.0P/E per %ROIC
ROIC: 6.1%
Shareholder Returns
Dividend
–
Buyback
–
Total Yield
–
Market Cap$2.82B
EV$4.29B
Multi-angle valuation analysis with sector context
Business Quality & Moat
Overall Quality Score
77/100
High Quality
Composite score: Returns (40%) + Consistency (30%) + Earnings Quality (30%)
Returns on Capital
Return on Equity (ROE)Above Avg
17.4%
8Q:–
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)Top 25%
6.1%
8Q:–
-3.1%
vs Sector:0.1%
DuPont Analysis (ROIC = NOPAT Margin × Asset Turnover)
NOPAT Margin: 25.3%
Asset Turnover: 0.19x
Earnings Quality
Cash Conversion
0.88x
OCF / Net Income
FCF Consistency
–
Positive quarters
Competitive Moat Indicators
Pricing Power
Gross Margin–
Capital Efficiency
Invested Capital Turnover0.24x
Working Capital
Cash Conversion Cycle200 days
Growth Quality & Momentum
Low Quality
Growth Quality Score
20/100
Growth 40%
Margins 30%
FCF 20%
Consistency 10%
Growth Rates
Revenue Growth YoY
-70.6%
OpInc Growth YoY
-50.6%
EPS Growth YoY
608.0%
FCF 3Y CAGR
-42.2%
Growth Quality Analysis
✓Efficient Growth: Free cash flow growing faster than revenue
Margin Quality & Sustainability
Low Quality
Profitability Cascade
Gross
—
Operating
33.9%
Top 25% in sector
Net
33.4%
Margins Unknown
Earnings Quality Signals
SBC / Revenue
—
FCF vs Net Gap
-29.7 pts
FCF: 3.7% | Net: 33.4%
FCF margin lags net margin by 29.7 pts
Quality = stability + cash conversion + low dilution
Balance Sheet & Solvency
Leveraged
Net Debt / EBITDA
–Net Debt: $1.32B
Interest Coverage
–
Leverage Metrics
Debt-to-Equity
1.02x
Balance sheet risk & solvency analysis