HOG
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.
Industrials • CIK: 0000793952
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Market Cap
$2.46B
P/E (TTM)
7.2x
Rev Growth (TTM)
-13.8%
Net Margin (TTM)
7.6%
FCF Yield (TTM)
16.9%
FCF Margin (TTM)
9.3%
Cash Flow Health
Free Cash Flow7/8 positive
TTM$415M
Q4 '25
$100M+178%
Q3 '25
$-129M-139%
FCF Margin
TTM9.3%
Q4 '2520.2%+310%
Sector: 5.4%Above Avg
OCF Margin12.7%
OCF/NI1.68x
CapEx Coverage3.7x
FCF Yield16.9%
FCF Growth (2Y)+2%
Cash Conversion Cycle
60 days
DSO: 24+DIO: 86−DPO: 50
Capital Allocation & Returns
Shareholder Friendly
Total Shareholder YieldTTM
TTM17.9%
Div Yield3.5%
+Buyback (TTM)14.4%
Strong capital returns to shareholders
Dividend & Payout Metrics
Dividend Yield (TTM)3.5%
FCF Payout Ratio20.8%
Free Cash Flow (TTM)$415.2M
Stock Repurchases (TTM)$353.3M
Capital Return / FCF105.9%
Est. Dividends Paid (TTM)$86.5M
Shows how management rewards shareholders
Operational Efficiency & Returns
Return on Invested CapitalTTM
3.0%
Moderate
-0.0% YoY-9.9%
P25MedianP75
75th pctl (med: 0.1%)
DuPont BreakdownROIC = Margin × Turn × (1+D/E)
NOPAT Margin
6.2%
8Q: 8.4%
Asset Turnover
0.40x
8Q: 0.43x
Leverage (1+D/E)
1.94x
D/E: 0.94x
DuPont: 4.8% ≈ 3.0% ROIC
Asset & CapEx Efficiency
Fixed Asset Turn
6.06x
8Q:7.06x
-419.7%
Invested Cap Turn
1.27x
8Q:1.88x
-154.1%
CapEx Intensity
4.4%
8Q:5.8%
CapEx/Depreciation
0.89x
Asset-based ROIC formula
QUARTERLY TRENDS
Last 8 quarters + TTM
| Metric | TTM | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q1 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $4.5B | $496.2M↓63.0% | $1.3B↑2.6% | $1.3B↓1.7% | $1.3B↑93.3% | $687.6M↓40.2% | $1.2B↓28.9% | $1.6B↓6.4% | $1.7B |
Operating Income | $386.6M | $-361.1M↓176.1% | $474.8M↑322.2% | $112.4M↓29.9% | $160.5M↑183.0% | $-193.3M↓282.8% | $105.8M↓56.1% | $241.1M↓8.4% | $263.1M |
Net Income | $338.7M | $-279.3M↓174.0% | $377.4M↑250.8% | $107.6M↓19.2% | $133.1M↑213.9% | $-116.9M↓198.2% | $119.0M↓45.5% | $218.3M↓7.1% | $234.9M |
Operating Cash Flow | $568.9M | $152.0M↑264.2% | $-92.6M↓125.2% | $368.0M↑160.0% | $141.5M↑6.3% | $133.2M↓62.3% | $353.0M↓25.5% | $473.6M↑355.4% | $104.0M |
Free Cash Flow | $415.2M | $100.4M↑177.8% | $-129.1M↓138.8% | $332.4M↑197.9% | $111.6M↑44.8% | $77.0M↓74.4% | $300.4M↓30.5% | $432.2M↑649.8% | $57.6M |
Total Equity | N/A |
Valuation Analysis
Fair Value
Price-to-EarningsTTM
7.2x
Volatile
8Q: 22.0x-2375%
Valuation Lenses
Earnings
7.2x
vs – sector
Cash Flow
15.7x
EV/FCF vs –
Growth-Adj
–PEG
N/A
Quality-Adj
2.4P/E per %ROIC
ROIC: 3.0%
Shareholder Returns
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
14.4%
Total Yield
17.9%
Market Cap$2.46B
EV$6.51B
Multi-angle valuation analysis with sector context
Business Quality & Moat
Overall Quality Score
59/100
Average
Composite score: Returns (40%) + Consistency (30%) + Earnings Quality (30%)
Returns on Capital
Return on Equity (ROE)Above Avg
10.2%
8Q:–
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)Top 25%
3.0%
8Q:–
-9.9%
vs Sector:0.1%
DuPont Analysis (ROIC = NOPAT Margin × Asset Turnover)
NOPAT Margin: 6.2%
Asset Turnover: 0.40x
Earnings Quality
Cash Conversion
1.68x
OCF / Net Income ✓
FCF Consistency
–
Positive quarters
Competitive Moat Indicators
Pricing Power
Gross Margin38.7%
Capital Efficiency
Invested Capital Turnover1.27x
Working Capital
Cash Conversion Cycle60 days
Growth Quality & Momentum
Low Quality
Growth Quality Score
37/100
Growth 40%
Margins 30%
FCF 20%
Consistency 10%
Growth Rates
Revenue Growth YoY
-13.8%
OpInc Growth YoY
-86.7%
EPS Growth YoY
-18.4%
FCF 3Y CAGR
1.5%
Growth Quality Analysis
✓Efficient Growth: Free cash flow growing faster than revenue
Margin Quality & Sustainability
Moderate
Profitability Cascade
Gross
38.7%
Operating
8.6%
Above Avg in sector
Net
7.6%
Margins Unknown
Earnings Quality Signals
SBC / Revenue
—
FCF vs Net Gap
+1.7 pts
FCF: 9.3% | Net: 7.6%
Quality = stability + cash conversion + low dilution
Balance Sheet & Solvency
Fortress
Net Debt / EBITDA
Net Cash
(0.0x)Net Cash: $124.73M
Interest Coverage
–
+Net cash position: $124.73M
Leverage Metrics
Debt-to-Equity
0.94x
Balance sheet risk & solvency analysis