Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis

Analysis from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. Data as of Q4 2025.

Overall Grade: F (Concerning)

Grade F (Concerning). ROIC 7.2%. FCF margin 0.7%. D/E 3.5x. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	Value	Context
ROIC	7.2%	Below expectations
FCF Margin	0.7%	Cash flow pressure
Debt/Equity	3.5x	Elevated debt

ROIC 7.2% — Top 50% of sector peers. FCF margin 0.7% — Top 50%.

Explore Vistra Corp.: Earnings History | Filings | ROIC Analysis

Programmatic access: Available via MCP at mcp.metricduck.com. Tools for VST: get_company_overview, get_filing_index (lens: debt_stress, management_outlook, risk_trajectory), get_filing_changes, get_metric_history, compare_companies, screen_filing_signals.

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Profitability: Vistra Corp. earns 7.2% ROIC, Top 50% in Utilities

ROIC TTM 7.2%, sector median 5.4%, Top 50%. DuPont: NOPAT margin 9.0% × asset turnover 0.5x. Operating margin 10.7%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	VST	Rating	Context
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	7.2%	Warning	Above sector median of 5.4%
Return on Equity (ROE)	14.9%	Adequate	Moderate equity returns
Operating Margin	10.7%	Good	Moderate operational efficiency

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Cash Flow: Vistra Corp. generates $129.0M FCF at 0.7% margin, positive NaN/8 quarters

FCF TTM $129.0M. FCF margin 0.7%, Top 50%. OCF/Net income 5.4x. Positive FCF in NaN/8 trailing quarters. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	VST	Rating	Context
Free Cash Flow Margin	0.7%	Warning	Thin cash margins
Free Cash Flow (TTM)	$129.0M	Good	Positive cash generation
OCF/Net Income	5.4x	Excellent	High earnings quality
FCF Consistency (8Q)	N/A	Warning	Variable cash flow

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Balance Sheet: Vistra Corp. at 3.5x leverage

Debt/Equity 3.5x. Total debt $17.6B, cash & investments $822.0M. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	VST	Rating	Context
Debt to Equity	3.5x	Red flag	Elevated leverage
Net Cash Position	$-16.8B	Warning	Net debt position

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Valuation: Vistra Corp. trades at 72.7x earnings

P/E 72.7x. EV/Sales 4.0x. FCF yield 0.2%. Dividend yield 0.6%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	VST	Rating	Context
P/E Ratio	72.7x	Warning	Premium valuation
EV/Sales	4.0x	Good	Growth premium priced in
FCF Yield	0.2%	Warning	Lower cash yield
Dividend Yield	0.6%	Adequate	Growth focus over income

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Capital Allocation: Vistra Corp. returns 2.4% shareholder yield

Total shareholder yield 2.4% (div 0.6% + buyback 1.9%). Capital returned $1.5B TTM. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Metric	VST	Rating	Context
Total Shareholder Yield	2.4%	Adequate	Dividend + buyback yield combined
Buyback Yield	1.9%	Adequate	Minimal buyback activity
Total Capital Returned (TTM)	$1.5B	Good	Dividends + buybacks returned to shareholders

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Sector Rankings

Metric	Value	Percentile	vs Median
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	7.2%	Top 50%	1.3x above
Free Cash Flow Margin	0.7%	Top 50%	-
Operating Margin	10.7%	Bottom 25%	0.5x below
Return on Equity (ROE)	14.9%	Top 25%	1.6x above
P/E Ratio	72.7x	N/A	-

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Financial Scorecard

Metric	VST	Rating	Sector Context
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	7.2%	Warning	Top 50% of sector (median: 5.4%)
Free Cash Flow Margin	0.7%	Warning	Top 50% of sector (median: 0.0%)
Debt to Equity Ratio	346.1%	Red flag	High financial leverage
P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings)	72.7x	Warning	High expectations priced in
Free Cash Flow Yield	0.2%	Red flag	Growth-focused valuation

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Vistra Corp.'s Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a trailing twelve-month Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.2%. Sector median 5.4%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: What is Vistra Corp.'s Free Cash Flow Margin?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a free cash flow margin of 0.7%, generating $129.0 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: What is Vistra Corp.'s P/E ratio and how does it compare to peers?

Vistra Corp. (VST) trades at a P/E ratio of 72.7x, which is above the sector median of N/A. EV/Sales 4.0x. FCF yield 0.2%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: Does Vistra Corp. pay a dividend?

Vistra Corp. (VST) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.6%. Total shareholder yield (dividend + buybacks) 2.4%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: How much debt does Vistra Corp. have?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.5x with total debt of $17.6 billion. Net debt $16.8 billion. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: What is Vistra Corp.'s revenue and earnings growth?

Vistra Corp. (VST) grew revenue by 3.0% year-over-year. EPS -69.2% YoY. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: Is Vistra Corp. buying back stock?

Vistra Corp. (VST) repurchased $1.0 billion of stock over the trailing twelve months. This represents a buyback yield of 1.9%. Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

Q: How does Vistra Corp. compare to competitors in Utilities?

Compared to other companies in Utilities, Vistra Corp. (VST) shows: ROIC 7.2%, sector median 5.4% (Top 50%). FCF margin 0.7%, sector median 0.0% (Top 50%). These rankings are based on MetricDuck's analysis of all Utilities companies with available SEC filings.

Q: What warning signs should I watch for with Vistra Corp.?

Quantitative warning flags for Vistra Corp. (VST): 1) FCF margin 0.7% (below 5%); 2) debt/equity 3.5x (above 1.5x threshold). Source: 10-Q filed 2025-11-07.

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Data Source: Data sourced from 10-Q filed 2025-11-07. TTM metrics as of Q4 2025.

Methodology: Financial metrics calculated from SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings using standardized formulas. Sector comparisons use peer group based on SIC code.

Scope: This analysis covers SEC filing fundamentals — profitability, cash flow, balance sheet, and valuation metrics. For analyst estimates and price targets, consult sell-side research.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.