Big Tech Says It's Spending $650 Billion on AI. I Checked the SEC Filings.

Big Tech is supposedly spending $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Bloomberg ran it. Goldman Sachs analyzed it. The Nasdaq tumbled over it.

But where does that number actually come from? I decided to check the actual SEC filings — the documents these companies are legally required to get right. I connected MetricDuck to Claude and started asking questions.

The $650B is real. But the filings reveal three things the headlines aren't telling you.

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First, the basics: the $650B checks out

Prompt:

How much did Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon spend on capital expenditures last year? And what did they say about 2026 in their 8-K earnings filings?

The combined FY2025 capex was $357.5B — already doubled in two years from $140B. And three of four companies put explicit 2026 guidance directly in their SEC filings:

• Meta (8-K, Jan 28): "$115-135 billion"
• Alphabet (8-K, Feb 4): Sundar Pichai: "$175 to $185 billion"
• Amazon (8-K, Feb 5): Andy Jassy: "about $200 billion"
• Microsoft: ~$145B, but only from the earnings call — not in the 8-K

$145B + $125B + $180B + $200B = $650B at the midpoint. The headline checks out.

But here's what caught my attention: Microsoft is the only one whose number isn't in an SEC filing. The other three filed it with the SEC — that's a legal commitment, not a slide deck estimate.

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Discovery 1: Meta's real commitment is $250B, not $125B

Prompt:

What hidden liabilities or off-balance-sheet commitments does Meta have in their latest 10-K?

This is where it got surprising. MetricDuck's filing intelligence flagged something the capex headlines miss entirely:

Meta has $131 billion in non-cancelable infrastructure commitments disclosed in its 10-K — locked-in obligations for cloud services, data center leases, and network infrastructure. These are OFF-balance-sheet, on TOP of the $115-135B capex guidance.

Meta's real infrastructure commitment for the coming years: ~$246-266 billion. Not $125B.

And Meta is already reinvesting 34.7% of every revenue dollar into infrastructure — up from 20% two years ago. This is no longer an "asset-light" software company.

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Discovery 2: Three of four face negative free cash flow

Prompt:

Compare their capex to operating cash flow. How much room do they have?

Current state (FY2025):

Company	CapEx/OCF	Free Cash Flow
Microsoft	47%	$71.6B
Meta	60%	$46.1B
Alphabet	56%	$73.3B
Amazon	95%	$7.7B

Amazon is already spending 95 cents of every dollar of operating cash flow. Their FCF collapsed from $38B to $8B in one year.

But the real story is what happens at 2026 guided levels:

Company	2026 CapEx	Current OCF	CapEx/OCF	Implied FCF
Microsoft	~$145B	$160.5B	90%	~$16B
Meta	$125B	$115.8B	108%	-$9B
Alphabet	$180B	$164.7B	109%	-$15B
Amazon	$200B	$139.5B	143%	-$61B

Three of four would generate negative free cash flow if operating cash flow doesn't grow proportionally. Amazon faces a $61 billion deficit. They're betting that revenue growth fills the gap — and sitting on $427B in combined cash reserves if it doesn't.

These numbers aren't in any analyst report I've seen. They came straight from the SEC filings.

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Discovery 3: $650B in commitments, zero ROI timelines

Prompt:

What do these companies actually promise in their SEC filings about returns on AI spending?

I read through the filing intelligence for all four. Here's what struck me — not what they said, but what's absent:

1. No AI-specific capex breakdowns. None separate AI spending from total capex.
2. No ROI timelines. Jassy says "strong long-term return on invested capital" — but doesn't define "long-term."
3. No AI revenue targets. $650B committed, zero revenue goals disclosed.
4. No capex reduction triggers. What would make them cut back? Nobody says.
5. No depreciation projections. $650B in new assets means depreciation will surge for years. Nobody quantifies it.

Only Meta made a concrete pledge: "In 2026 we expect to deliver operating income that is above 2025 operating income."

$650B in legal commitments. Zero accountability metrics. From the four most disciplined capital allocators in corporate history.

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What this means

The $650B isn't a rumor — three of four companies filed it with the SEC. But the SEC filings tell a more nuanced story than the headlines:

Meta's real exposure is nearly double what's reported — $131B in hidden commitments on top of the capex guidance. Amazon's FCF dropped 71% in a single year and they're doubling down. And none of the four will tell you when this spending pays off — not in the SEC filings, not anywhere.

These companies aren't just spending $650B on AI. They're locking in a cost structure for the next decade, and asking shareholders to trust that revenue will catch up.

The question I'm still sitting with: Amazon's Jassy filed "$200 billion" with the SEC, knowing FCF is collapsing. What does he see in the demand data that the rest of us don't?

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Try it yourself

Every number and quote in this post came from SEC filings — pulled by AI through MetricDuck.

claude mcp add --transport http -s user metricduck https://mcp.metricduck.com/mcp

Start with: "How much did Amazon spend on capex last year compared to their cash flow?"

Free — 500 credits/day, no credit card.