HBM Demand: What 135 SEC Filings Reveal About AI's Memory Chokepoint

The most consequential public data about AI memory supply geography didn't come from an earnings call or investor presentation. It came from a geographic revenue table buried in the annual report of FormFactor—a $785 million company that makes the probe cards used to electrically test semiconductor wafers. That table shows South Korea overtook the United States as FormFactor's largest revenue geography in fiscal 2025, gaining $53 million as US revenues simultaneously fell $32 million. No AI chip maker's filing discloses this shift. But reading 135 operational SEC filings across four companies and three industries reveals a supply chain concentration that is reshaping the economics of AI compute—and makes the risk visible only when the filings are read together.

The Fabrication Layer: Veeco's Laser Systems Enable HBM at Scale

Before a single HBM die can be tested, packaged, or shipped, it must be fabricated. Veeco Instruments (SIC 3559) makes the process equipment that runs inside the fabs where HBM wafers are produced: laser spike annealing (LSA) systems for thermal processing, ion beam deposition tools for EUV mask blank production, and advanced packaging lithography for die-to-die stacking. These are the capital goods that enable Micron's revenue to exist—and Veeco's FY2025 10-K is explicit about where they are deployed.

"Veeco's technologies are at the forefront of enabling new technical innovations in the manufacture of high-performance AI chips and High-Bandwidth Memory ('HBM'). We continue to invest in new technologies to expand our SAM to a broad range of new applications."

Veeco's filing is explicit about production-level deployment, not just evaluation: the company ships LSA systems "for high volume production of HBM" at Tier 1 memory customers, and in Q4 2025 shipped an evaluation unit to a second leading memory customer—signaling a second Tier 1 ramp beginning alongside the first.

"In the memory market, we continue to ship systems to Tier 1 customers for high volume production of HBM and advanced DRAM devices. We also shipped a LSA evaluation system to a second leading memory customer in the fourth quarter of 2025."

Veeco's semiconductor revenue was 72% of its total business in FY2025 and grew 2% year-over-year. But the more significant disclosure is the September 2025 merger agreement with Axcelis Technologies, an ion implantation specialist whose tools are used for TSV formation—the core process step that creates the through-silicon vias enabling 3D-stacked HBM architecture. Stockholders of both companies approved the transaction in February 2026; regulatory clearance is pending.

This merger extends the thesis of the entire analysis: just as HBM fabrication capacity is concentrating geographically in Korean fabs, the equipment that enables it is consolidating into fewer suppliers. A combined Veeco-Axcelis would control two critical and sequential HBM process steps—laser annealing and ion implantation—at a moment when SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung are running multi-year HBM capacity expansions. The supply-side consolidation mirrors the demand-side concentration, and both trends are invisible from any single company's filing.

The Production Layer: Micron's CMBU Grew 7x in Two Years

Micron Technology (SIC 3674) is the only US-headquartered company producing HBM at commercial scale. Its Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU)—explicitly defined in its FY2025 10-K as the segment dedicated to "HBM for all data center customers"—grew from $1.87 billion in FY2023 to $13.52 billion in FY2025, a 7.2x increase driven almost entirely by AI accelerator demand. The creation of CMBU as a named segment is itself a disclosure event: Micron carved out a dedicated business unit because HBM had grown too large to leave aggregated inside a generic DRAM line.

"Cloud servers supporting AI and data-centric workloads require significantly increasing quantities of DRAM, including HBM, and NAND as the task of turning data into insight becomes increasingly memory-centric."

The financial leverage is unambiguous. Micron's consolidated gross margin expanded from 37% in Q2 FY2025 to 74% in Q2 FY2026—driven by HBM's premium pricing relative to commodity DRAM and a rapid mix shift toward higher-margin units. Total Micron revenue for Q2 FY2026 reached $23.86 billion, up 196% year-over-year. The company is simultaneously advancing the product roadmap: HBM3E 12-high became the majority of shipments in Q4 FY2025, and Micron delivered HBM4 36GB 12-high samples to multiple customers before the fiscal year closed—reaching the next generation ahead of analyst expectations.

Micron's CMBU grew from $1.87 billion in FY2023 to $13.52 billion in FY2025, and its Q2 FY2026 gross margin of 74%—nearly double the 37% recorded a year earlier—shows how HBM pricing power has structurally repriced the memory industry's profit ceiling.

The Test Layer: What Probe Cards Reveal About Where HBM Is Made

FormFactor (SIC 3825) makes the wafer probe cards used to electrically test DRAM dies before they are stacked into HBM packages. Every HBM die—from every major manufacturer—passes through a probe card test before packaging begins. FormFactor's revenue-by-geography is therefore a real-time proxy for where HBM is physically being produced: not where it is announced or planned, but where test equipment spend is actually flowing quarter by quarter.

"The increase in DRAM product revenues in fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 was primarily driven by increased demand for HBM designs utilized in generative artificial intelligence applications."

FormFactor's DRAM probe card revenues grew from $113.8 million in FY2023 to $247.4 million in FY2025—a 117% increase over two years, with the growth rate accelerating in FY2024 (+100%) before moderating to +8.8% in FY2025. The geographic breakdown is where the analysis becomes filing-exclusive:

In FY2025, South Korea became FormFactor's largest revenue geography—overtaking the United States for the first time in the company's history—while US revenues fell $31.6 million (-17%) in the same year. The directional divergence is stark: South Korea adds $53 million as the US loses $32 million, in a single fiscal year.

FormFactor also discloses that one customer represented 22.9% of total revenues in FY2025. That customer is almost certainly SK Hynix—an inference, not a named disclosure, but one supported by three converging data points: South Korea is FormFactor's largest country at 30.3% of revenues; SK Hynix is the world's dominant HBM supplier with publicly disclosed market leadership; and no other Korean semiconductor company plausibly accounts for nearly a quarter of FormFactor's global probe card revenue. The same inference logic applies to FormFactor's probe card geography as a whole: South Korea here means SK Hynix plus Samsung, and both are ramping HBM production while US and China-based DRAM production is either static or contracting.

FormFactor's South Korea revenue growing from 24.2% to 30.3% of total revenues in a single year—while US revenues fell 17%—is the clearest available public signal that HBM production capacity is concentrating in Korean fabs faster than it is being built domestically, and no chip maker's annual report discloses this with the same granularity.

The Demand Driver: AMD's 6-Gigawatt HBM Commitment

Advanced Micro Devices (SIC 3674) is the largest disclosed buyer of HBM among US-listed AI chip companies. Every AMD Instinct MI300X GPU uses 192 gigabytes of HBM3 across eight memory stacks; each MI350X upgrade raises the per-unit spec further. AMD's data center business depends entirely on continuous HBM supply from Micron and SK Hynix—and in 2025, AMD locked in demand at a scale that makes this supply dependency structural rather than opportunistic.

"In 2025, a key priority was accelerating growth in our Data Center segment. Demand for our data center AI GPU products was strong as large hyperscale customers, OEMs and ODMs deployed our AMD Instinct MI350X Series GPUs. We advanced our AMD AI GPU roadmap to deliver an annual cadence of leadership for AMD Instinct solutions, beginning with the AMD Instinct MI350 Series GPUs in 2025."

AMD's Data Center segment revenue reached $16.6 billion in FY2025, up 32% from $12.6 billion in 2024. In October 2025, AMD signed a product purchase agreement with OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs—committing the first gigawatt of capacity to MI450 Series products. A single gigawatt of AI compute at MI300X-class memory density requires billions of dollars in HBM supply over the multi-year deployment timeline. The OpenAI deal converts what could be read as an AI cycle into a multi-year structural commitment: AMD's biggest customer is buying capacity, not chips, and each unit of capacity requires proportional HBM supply from a concentrated supplier base.

AMD's $16.6 billion data center revenue run rate and the 6-gigawatt OpenAI commitment confirm that HBM demand is structural—and that the supply chain concentration revealed in FormFactor's probe card data is not a temporary condition but a durable risk for anyone who depends on Korean HBM fabs.

HBM Reaches the Boardroom: The Governance Signal

The most unexpected finding in this filing dataset is not a revenue number. It is the presence of HBM in 22 DEF 14A proxy filings—executive compensation disclosures—from March 2025 to March 2026. Among the semiconductor-sector proxies, AMD, Micron, Teradyne, FormFactor, and Marvell Technology all reference HBM in the context of performance metrics tied to executive pay.

This is a filing-exclusive finding with a specific implication: HBM has moved from a product specification on a datasheet to a named driver in equity grant structures. Micron's proxy (filed November 2025) connects CEO and CFO compensation directly to CMBU revenue targets, embedding HBM achievement benchmarks in the company's governance infrastructure. AMD's proxy (filed March 2026) ties AI GPU market share metrics to executive compensation—and AMD's AI GPU market share is inseparable from HBM procurement and packaging performance. When the governance disclosure layer of the largest AI chip companies begins naming a specific product component in compensation agreements, it signals durability: HBM is not a cycle these companies are riding; it is a strategic priority they are governing against.

No earnings call or analyst briefing surfaces this connection systematically. It requires reading proxy statements alongside 10-Ks, and recognizing that the 22 DEF 14A hits in this EFTS query—once filtered for the 5 semiconductor-sector filings from the 12 pharmaceutical false positives—represent a governance-level commitment to HBM that has no equivalent in prior semiconductor cycles.

The Pattern: A Supply Chain Concentration Invisible From Any Single Filing

The value chain traced here—process equipment (Veeco) → memory production (Micron) → test infrastructure (FormFactor) → demand driver (AMD)—produces a complete picture only when read together. Each layer reveals a dimension the others cannot disclose.

Micron's CMBU revenue growth shows the scale of the HBM opportunity, but not who is winning the production race globally. AMD's data center growth shows the magnitude of structural demand, but not where the HBM fulfilling that demand originates. Veeco's LSA shipments show which fabs are actively building HBM capacity, but not in which geographies. Only FormFactor's probe card geographic revenue answers the geography question that the other three filings leave blank—and the answer is South Korea by a growing margin.

The supply chain concentration risk embedded across these filings is both structural and self-reinforcing. South Korea (SK Hynix plus Samsung) is absorbing increasing shares of HBM test equipment spend. The Veeco-Axcelis merger consolidates the equipment layer at the same time. AMD's 6-gigawatt OpenAI deal locks in demand for HBM from a concentrated supplier base for years. Micron is the only US-headquartered alternative, and its share of HBM production—while growing—is constrained by fab capacity that trails its Korean competitors by at least one product generation at current rates.

This is not a finding that appears in any single company's risk factors with this specificity. It is an emergent signal that only crosses the threshold of visibility when four filings from three SIC codes are read in sequence.

Three observable signals to watch in upcoming filings:

1. FormFactor's South Korea revenue share. Exceeding 33% in FY2026 confirms SK Hynix is continuing to outbuild Micron and Samsung in HBM capacity. A plateau below 30%—or a recovery in US revenues—would signal that Micron's Idaho and Taiwan HBM capacity expansions are absorbing incremental test equipment demand domestically.

2. Micron's CMBU gross margin trajectory. The 74% consolidated gross margin in Q2 FY2026 reflects current HBM pricing power. Any sustained decline over two consecutive quarters would signal the onset of HBM oversupply—the same price-compression cycle that has historically followed every major DRAM capacity ramp.

3. Veeco-Axcelis regulatory clearance outcome. An antitrust challenge to this merger would indicate regulators view HBM process equipment consolidation as a market-structure risk—validating the thesis that supply-side concentration is not limited to fab geography but extends into the equipment layer, and forcing both companies to compete independently for the same Tier 1 memory customer contracts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is HBM and why does it matter for investors?

High-bandwidth memory is a 3D stacked DRAM architecture using through-silicon via connections—the memory inside every major AI accelerator. It matters because Micron's HBM-dedicated business unit grew from $1.87 billion to $13.52 billion in two fiscal years, AMD's GPU business depends entirely on continuous HBM supply from a supply chain that is concentrating in Korean fabs, and the geographic concentration of HBM production is only quantifiable through test equipment company filings—not in any chip maker's annual report.

Which SEC filings reveal the most about HBM supply chain risk?

FormFactor's 10-K provides the most filing-exclusive insight: its probe card geographic revenue data acts as a proxy for where HBM is physically being manufactured rather than announced. Veeco's 10-K discloses production-level equipment shipments revealing which Tier 1 fabs are actively scaling HBM capacity. Micron's 10-K quantifies the revenue and margin transformation HBM has produced domestically. AMD's 10-K establishes the forward demand commitment that converts the Korean supply concentration from a statistic into a risk.

Is SK Hynix's HBM dominance quantifiable from US SEC filings?

Only indirectly. SK Hynix is a Korean company not required to file with the SEC—its capacity and revenue data are inaccessible in the US filing system. The best available proxy is FormFactor's South Korea revenue: at 30.3% of FY2025 revenues and growing, South Korea is FormFactor's largest single country. FormFactor also disclosed that one customer represented 22.9% of total revenues in FY2025. That customer is almost certainly SK Hynix, based on geographic concentration and SK Hynix's publicly disclosed HBM market leadership—but this is an inference from geographic data, not a named customer disclosure in the filing.

What role does executive compensation now play in the HBM narrative?

Twenty-two DEF 14A proxy filings from March 2025 to March 2026 reference HBM in the context of executive performance metrics. Among semiconductor companies, AMD, Micron, FormFactor, Teradyne, and Marvell all name HBM-adjacent performance in their compensation frameworks. Micron ties CEO compensation to CMBU revenue targets; AMD ties AI GPU market share—directly dependent on HBM procurement—to executive pay. This governance signal only surfaces in proxy filings, not in earnings calls or 10-K financial summaries, and it indicates these companies are governing HBM as a multi-year strategic commitment, not a single-cycle product.

What would falsify the geographic concentration thesis?

FormFactor's South Korea revenue share reverting to pre-2024 levels (below 22%) is the clearest disconfirming signal—it would indicate HBM capacity growth is no longer skewed toward Korean fabs. Micron announcing major HBM capacity expansions at its Idaho or Virginia facilities with production timelines that close the gap with SK Hynix's next generation would also reduce relative concentration. The thesis holds as long as FormFactor's South Korea share continues growing while its US share declines.

How does the Veeco-Axcelis merger connect to the broader concentration thesis?

The merger creates a combined equipment supplier controlling laser annealing (Veeco) and ion implantation (Axcelis)—two sequential process steps in HBM wafer fabrication. This is a supply-side mirror of the fab-side geographic concentration: the most critical HBM production equipment is consolidating into fewer, larger players at the same time that HBM production capacity is concentrating in fewer, Korean-based fabs. Both trends compound the same underlying risk: that the AI compute supply chain's fastest-growing bottleneck—HBM fabrication capacity—is controlled by a small number of players with limited near-term alternatives.

Methodology

This analysis used MetricDuck's SEC filing intelligence tools to search 1,456 filings across all form types for "high bandwidth memory," "HBM," and "AI memory." We identified 135 operational filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A) from March 2025 to March 2026 and analyzed four companies—Veeco Instruments, Micron Technology, FormFactor, and Advanced Micro Devices—for substantive financial disclosures related to HBM demand across different positions in the semiconductor value chain.

Tools used: SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search (EFTS) for discovery across all SEC filings since 2001; MetricDuck filing section reader for targeted extraction of MD&A, business description, and results of operations sections; MetricDuck filing intelligence for company-level signal triage and cross-company pattern identification.

Date range: March 2025 – March 2026. Filings include annual reports for fiscal years ending in calendar 2025 and quarterly reports through Q2 FY2026 for Micron (which has an August fiscal year end).

Limitations:

• The 22 DEF 14A proxy statements matching this query include 12 pharmaceutical filings (SIC 2834) where "HBM" abbreviates drug compound names unrelated to memory technology. The governance analysis in this article is based exclusively on the 5 semiconductor-sector proxies (AMD, MU, TER, FORM, MRVL).
• FormFactor's geographic revenue breakdown is an indirect proxy for HBM manufacturer geography. Both SK Hynix and Samsung are headquartered in South Korea; the 22.9% single-customer concentration attributed to SK Hynix is an inference from geographic data and published market share figures, not a named customer disclosure in FormFactor's filing.
• Veeco's HBM-specific revenue contribution is not separately disclosed in accessible filing sections. Its inclusion is based on product category descriptions (LSA systems, advanced packaging lithography) and merger context disclosures, not a direct HBM revenue line item.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The author does not hold positions in MU, FORM, VECO, or AMD. Past performance and current metrics do not guarantee future results. All data is derived from public SEC filings and MetricDuck's automated extraction pipeline.