CoreWeave grew revenue 168% to $5.1 billion in fiscal 2025 and sits on $60.7 billion in committed backlog — more than 11 years at the current run rate. But the 10-K reveals debt service of $4.4 billion already exceeds the $3.1 billion in operating cash flow, interest coverage has fallen below 2.0x, and the company must raise $18-20 billion in 2026 just to refinance and keep building. At $71.61 per share, the stock prices in the growth — but not the cost of funding it.
Venture Global generated $6.6 billion in operating cash flow — nearly triple its $2.3 billion in GAAP net income — yet trades at 7.3x EV/EBITDA, a 32% discount to infrastructure peers. The 10-K reveals why: Calcasieu's post-COD quarterly margin collapsed 36.2 percentage points, CP2's cost estimate escalated $4 billion in one quarter with no explanation, and preferred shareholders capture 58% of the total dividend payout. The margin lifecycle is quantifiable — and the market appears to be pricing it correctly.
Thermo Fisher Scientific generated $44.6 billion in revenue in FY2025 and grew EPS 7.3% to $17.74. But free cash flow declined 13.4% to $6.29 billion. At 32.6× trailing earnings, the market embeds roughly $50 billion of enterprise value in TMO's ability to keep acquiring its way to growth. The 10-K reveals three hidden subsidies — $283 million in interest rate swap benefits, $16 billion in sub-3% legacy bonds repricing higher, and a declining amortization tailwind — propping up the earnings narrative while $14 billion in near-term obligations come due.
Prologis, the world's largest logistics REIT, generated an industry-best 79.5% EBITDA margin in FY2025 — yet FFO per share fell 6.0% while dividends grew 5.2%. The 10-K reveals $35.3 billion in debt at 5.06x EBITDA with a $10.68 billion maturity wall approaching at refinancing rates 110 basis points above the current portfolio. The 18% embedded lease mark-to-market provides ~3.1% annual organic rent growth, but that barely offsets the projected interest headwind. Meanwhile, the filing describes data centers as 'selective development' — three weeks before management announced a $25 billion commitment. The entire valuation at 19.9x FFO hinges on whether the data center pivot is optionality or necessity.
Oracle's -$10B Q2 free cash flow triggered alarm bells. Decomposition reveals the collapse is 70% working capital timing, not structural deterioration. The real story: $248B in off-balance sheet lease commitments dwarfs their $100B balance sheet debt. This is the largest infrastructure bet in enterprise software history.