Filing Analysis

All articles tagged with "Filing Analysis"

9 articles

Is AppLovin's 76% Operating Margin Real? The Filing Says Half Is an Artifact

AppLovin reported a 76% operating margin in FY2025 — the highest among all major tech peers. But a line-by-line decomposition of the 10-K reveals that roughly half of the margin expansion came from a collapsing stock compensation pool, not operational efficiency. With 920,526 PSU grants tied to $300B–$1T market cap milestones, the mechanism for SBC reversal is already embedded. Meanwhile, 97% of revenue growth came from pricing, not volume — and the filing's own risk factors warn that growth will decelerate.

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Dell's AI Server Margin Paradox: Record $113B Revenue, Collapsing Margins

Dell Technologies reported record $113.5 billion in revenue and 36% EPS growth for fiscal 2026. But buried in the segment footnote of the annual report, ISG gross margin collapsed 550 basis points in a single year — even as the segment's operating income grew 30%. The company's $26 billion services layer and disciplined SG&A efficiency are masking a fundamental shift in earnings quality that the earnings release doesn't show.

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Rocket's GAAP Losses Mask a $2.4B EBITDA Machine

Rocket Companies reported a $68 million GAAP loss for fiscal 2025 — on $6.7 billion in revenue. But the 10-K reveals two fundamentally different companies hiding in one set of financials: a pre-acquisition originator that burned $359M in EBITDA over nine months, and a post-acquisition servicing platform that generated $592M in Q4 EBITDA alone. At $76.1 billion maximum dilution, the stock prices in a company that doesn't yet fully exist in GAAP.

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Autodesk Grew Revenue 18% With Zero Incremental Sales Cost

Autodesk grew revenue by $1,075 million in FY2026 — and spent $4 million less on sales and marketing than the year before. The FY2026 10-K reveals that the channel transition from 42% to 63% direct sales is recapturing $284 million in distributor margin while .DWG file format lock-in keeps customers in place despite the most aggressive go-to-market restructuring in enterprise software history. But half of revenue now comes from construction software, making this 'design company' increasingly a cyclical bet that the 9x revenue multiple may not adequately price.

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UnitedHealth's Medical Cost Crisis Is Worse Than Any Peer

UnitedHealth Group grew Medicare Advantage membership by 600,000 in FY2025 and revenue surpassed $447 billion. Operating income fell 41%. The FY2025 10-K reveals a medical cost ratio of 89.1% — the worst trajectory among five managed care peers we analyzed from raw filing data. UNH's +5.9 percentage point MCR deterioration is nearly double the peer average, exposing the vertical integration model as a cost amplifier, not a dampener.

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NVDA's $165 Billion Question: What NVIDIA's 10-K Reveals

NVIDIA generated $216 billion in revenue with 75% gross margins — the most dominant operating performance in tech history. But the FY2026 10-K reveals $165 billion in total obligations growing 2-5x faster than revenue, a $17 billion Groq license that created $14.4 billion in goodwill on zero revenue, and a $40 billion equity portfolio entangling NVIDIA with its own customer ecosystem. These aren't reasons to sell — they're the specific conditions investors should monitor at 25x forward earnings.

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Medline Grew Revenue 11.5% — Incremental Margin Was 2.3%

Medline Inc. grew revenue 11.5% to $28.4 billion — the fastest among its med-surg peers. But the 10-K reveals that $2.9 billion in new revenue produced just $67 million in incremental operating income, a 2.3% capture rate below the company's own cost of debt. With ROIC at 5.96% versus a 6.50% cost of debt, a Q4 gross margin cliff to 24.6%, and a potential $11 billion Tax Receivable Agreement owed to PE sponsors, the filing documents a capital structure that demands more than operations can deliver.

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