SEC Filing Analysis

All articles tagged with "SEC Filing Analysis"

18 articles

DKS 10-K Analysis: DICK'S EPS Grew 3.8% — Consolidated EPS Fell 29%

Dick's Sporting Goods grew its core business EPS 3.8% to $14.58 in FY2025 while consolidated GAAP EPS fell 29% to $9.97. The FY2025 10-K reveals a two-speed retailer: the DICK'S segment earned 11.1% margins while Foot Locker lost $52 million. At $202, the market assigns negative $1.4 billion to the FL acquisition — making this a binary bet on a $177 million turnaround pinned to one back-to-school season.

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SNOW 10-K Analysis: Why Snowflake's Path to Profit Has Two Competing Clocks

Snowflake collected $755 million more from customers than it recognized as revenue in FY2026 — nearly doubling the prior year's haul. But management's own 10-K discloses a billing shift that could compress this cash engine right as SBC leverage posts its fastest improvement in company history. The filing reveals two competing clocks: one pushing toward GAAP profitability, the other pulling away from cash profitability.

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BURL 10-K Analysis: The $1.1 Billion Bet That's About to Pay Off

Burlington Stores generated $1.2 billion in operating cash flow in FY2025 — yet retained only $172 million as free cash flow. The gap: a $1.06 billion capital expenditure program funding the largest supply chain build-out in the company's history, now 70%+ complete. The 10-K reveals that as capex declines $229 million in FY2026, Burlington's FCF yield — currently the lowest among all peers at 0.9% — could triple to ~2.3% within 12 months. But the thesis depends on whether 53-week-adjusted 6.7% revenue growth can sustain the 2x operating leverage that makes each new dollar of revenue twice as profitable as the average.

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Big Tech Says It's Spending $650 Billion on AI. I Checked the SEC Filings.

The $650B AI capex headline is real — three of four hyperscalers filed specific guidance with the SEC. But the filings reveal what the headlines miss: Meta's actual infrastructure commitment is ~$250B (not $125B), three of four face negative free cash flow at guided levels, and none disclosed ROI timelines for the largest corporate infrastructure bet in history.

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COIN 10-K Analysis: Why Trading Volume Is a Vanity Metric at 7.8 Basis Points

Coinbase processed $5.2 trillion in trading volume in 2025 — a 156% increase that generated just 1.7% more transaction revenue. The blended take rate collapsed 60%, to 7.8 basis points, while consumer revenue declined 3.1% and stablecoin growth decelerated from 31.7% to 2.7% sequentially. This filing analysis reveals the closing window between Coinbase's revenue transition and cost inflation.

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BX 10-K Analysis: $12.3B Hidden Debt, a Segment Shift, and 203% Payout

Blackstone reports $0 in debt and a 203% dividend payout ratio — both technically accurate, both completely misleading. The FY 2025 10-K reveals $12.3 billion in operating borrowings at the partnership level, a Private Equity segment within $10 million of overtaking Real Estate for the first time, and a compensation structure that absorbs 70 cents of every marginal fee dollar. At ~$100 (as of March 2026), the stock implies ~20x Distributable Earnings — a reasonable multiple, but only if the BCRED redemption crisis doesn't compress the fee-earning asset base.

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WBD 10-K Analysis: The $2.9B Debt Gain That Masks a Cash Flow Crisis

Warner Bros. Discovery reported $728 million in net income for FY 2025 — its first profit since the WarnerMedia Merger. But the 10-K reveals a $2.9 billion debt extinguishment gain is the only item keeping that number positive. Cash taxes and interest consumed 97.7% of operating cash flow. A $15 billion bridge loan at 7.16% replaced the cheap debt that generated the 'gain.' And $16.5 billion in debt matures in 2027 behind a triple credit downgrade. Here's what the filing reveals about why the PSKY merger at $31/share may be less a strategic combination than a financial survival mechanism.

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ABT 10-K Analysis: Abbott's $23B Bet on Its Lowest-Return Division

Abbott Laboratories reported $44.3 billion in revenue and a 52nd consecutive dividend increase — the kind of headline that signals a diversified compounder. But the 10-K's segment footnotes reveal that Medical Devices generates 61% of segment operating income, the $23 billion Exact Sciences acquisition targets the lowest-return division, and 1,760 infant formula lawsuits carry zero reserves. Here's what the filing reveals about the real risk-reward behind a 33.6× P/E.

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ENB 10-K Analysis: The C$7.8B Gap Between Enbridge's Two Dividend Stories

Enbridge reported record adjusted EBITDA of C$20 billion in FY2025 and celebrated its 31st consecutive dividend increase. Revenue surged 22%. Net income jumped 40%. But the 10-K tells a different story: core pipeline toll revenue grew just 1.8%, more than half of revenue is zero-margin commodity pass-through, and the dividend consumed 278% of free cash flow. The gap between these two narratives — management's DCF showing 1.5x coverage versus GAAP FCF showing 0.36x — comes down to C$7.8 billion in annual growth capex. Is it discretionary? The filing's C$18.3 billion in non-cancellable purchase commitments suggest much of it is not. We decompose Enbridge's revenue quality, dividend mechanics, segment margins, and leverage trajectory using data from the 10-K, Q3 8-K, and Q2 10-Q to show what the earnings headline misses.

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UNP 10-K Analysis: Why 82% of EPS Growth Disappears in 2026

Union Pacific reported 'record-breaking' FY 2025 earnings of $11.98 per share, up 8%. But the 10-K reveals that only 18% of that growth came from actual railroad operations. The remaining 82% — industrial park land sales, share buybacks, and a one-time tax benefit — all disappear in FY 2026, creating a $0.55/share headwind that organic operations must replace. With the Norfolk Southern merger facing unprecedented regulatory scrutiny and no STB precedent, investors are paying ~$69/share for merger optionality they cannot handicap.

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XEL 10-K Analysis: The $7B-a-Year Treadmill Behind 8% EPS Growth

Xcel Energy reported 8.57% ongoing EPS growth in FY 2025 — right at the top of management's 6-8% target. But GAAP EPS actually fell 0.58%. The 10-K reveals a $10.9 billion capital machine operating at 3.68x depreciation, generating negative incremental returns (-0.86% ROIIC) while diluting shareholders 8.57% annually. Production tax credits don't benefit shareholders despite the -13.8% effective tax rate, AFUDC inflates 8.2% of net income, and wildfire charges classified as 'non-recurring' have now appeared in three of the past five years.

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AMT 10-K Analysis: The Hidden Cross-Subsidy Funding American Tower's AI Pivot

American Tower reported 5.1% revenue growth in FY2025, but the 10-K reveals the US tower business — 49% of revenue — generated just $0.6M in incremental revenue. All growth came from Africa (+17.8%), data centers (+13.9%), and Europe. At 18.0x P/FFO, the market is pricing a growth transition story funded by an 8.4x capital intensity cross-subsidy from towers to data centers — while $12.2B in debt matures in 2027-2028 at higher rates.

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APO 10-K Analysis: The Dual Flywheel's Hidden Single Point of Failure

Apollo Global Management reported $32 billion in revenue and declared 'record' earnings — while the 10-K shows net income fell 24.2% to $3.4 billion. The filing reveals that 42.5% of Asset Management fees are captive intersegment payments from its own Athene insurance subsidiary, SRE missed 10% growth guidance at just 4.2% as net investment spread compressed to 1.61%, and a $755 million non-operating insurance liability swing drove 70% of the GAAP earnings decline. At $145/share, APO trades at 25x GAAP P/E (expensive) and 9x EV/FCF (cheap) — the answer depends on whether Athene's spread compression stays below 25bp annually.

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MS 10-K Analysis: The $139B Sweep Deposit Paradox Behind Record Earnings

Morgan Stanley posted record FY 2025 results: $70.6B revenue, $10.21 EPS, and 21.6% ROTCE — the highest return among large bank peers. But the 10-K reveals a paradox at the core of those results. The $139 billion sweep deposit base driving record net interest income growth is the same asset class-action plaintiffs allege was unfairly compensated. Meanwhile, the 300bp efficiency improvement blends a durable WM non-comp leverage engine with a cyclical IS comp ratio tailwind. At 17.4x earnings — the richest multiple in the large bank peer group — investors are paying for a stability narrative that the filing's own numbers complicate.

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TFC 10-K Analysis: The Two-Speed Bank Behind the $10B Buyback

Truist Financial returned 104% of its FY2025 net income to shareholders — $5.2 billion through dividends and buybacks — while CET1 capital declined 70 basis points. But the 10-K reveals a bank running at two speeds: Wholesale Banking already operates at 49% efficiency while Consumer Banking's earnings collapsed 17.8%. With 30-89 day delinquencies surging 22.3% and the filing's own stress test showing a $2.4 billion reserve hit would halve EPS, the $10 billion buyback authorization is a bet on a consumer franchise that's weakening faster than buybacks can compensate.

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CAT 10-K Analysis: A Margin Collapse Hiding a $3.5B Structural Bet

Caterpillar grew revenue 4.3% to $67.6 billion in FY 2025, but every new dollar destroyed $0.69 of operating profit — an incremental margin of -69.1%. Buried inside the collapse: a $3.5 billion capex concentration in Power & Energy while Construction Industries hemorrhages pricing power. The filing reveals two fundamentally different businesses sharing one ticker, one balance sheet, and a 30x P/E that demands a $2.17 billion pricing reversal to justify.

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VRT 10-K Analysis: The Hidden Math Behind 168% Earnings Growth

Vertiv Holdings reported 168.8% net income growth in FY 2025, but our earnings quality decomposition reveals that $203.5 million — nearly one-quarter — came from a non-repeating tax rate correction. The remaining 76% is durable operating leverage on $10.2 billion in revenue, backed by a $15 billion backlog with SaaS-like deferred revenue visibility. But the filing also reveals asymmetric risks: no disclosed cancellation penalties on that backlog, a widening GAAP-to-adjusted earnings gap, and percentage-of-completion estimation risk that grows with project scale.

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