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Union Pacific

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Analysis

UNP 10-K Analysis: Why 82% of EPS Growth Disappears in 2026

Union Pacific reported 'record-breaking' FY 2025 earnings of $11.98 per share, up 8%. But the 10-K reveals that only 18% of that growth came from actual railroad operations. The remaining 82% — industrial park land sales, share buybacks, and a one-time tax benefit — all disappear in FY 2026, creating a $0.55/share headwind that organic operations must replace. With the Norfolk Southern merger facing unprecedented regulatory scrutiny and no STB precedent, investors are paying ~$69/share for merger optionality they cannot handicap.

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15 min
Analysis

NSC 10-K Analysis: Zero Revenue Growth Behind the 10% EPS Headline

Norfolk Southern reported 10.2% EPS growth and 200 basis points of operating ratio improvement in FY 2025. Revenue grew $57 million — less than half a percent. The 10-K reveals that 100% of the earnings improvement came from cost cuts, while the pending $85B Union Pacific merger has inflated compensation by $154M, suppressed capex by 20%, and triggered customer defection. At $289, investors are buying a binary merger bet with asymmetric downside.

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15 min

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