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Analysis

BX 10-K Analysis: $12.3B Hidden Debt, a Segment Shift, and 203% Payout

Blackstone reports $0 in debt and a 203% dividend payout ratio — both technically accurate, both completely misleading. The FY 2025 10-K reveals $12.3 billion in operating borrowings at the partnership level, a Private Equity segment within $10 million of overtaking Real Estate for the first time, and a compensation structure that absorbs 70 cents of every marginal fee dollar. At ~$100 (as of March 2026), the stock implies ~20x Distributable Earnings — a reasonable multiple, but only if the BCRED redemption crisis doesn't compress the fee-earning asset base.

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15 min

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Research

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