XEL 10-K Analysis: The $7B-a-Year Treadmill Behind 8% EPS Growth
Xcel Energy reported 8.57% ongoing EPS growth in FY 2025 — right at the top of management's 6-8% target. But GAAP EPS actually fell 0.58%. The 10-K reveals a $10.9 billion capital machine operating at 3.68x depreciation, generating negative incremental returns (-0.86% ROIIC) while diluting shareholders 8.57% annually. Production tax credits don't benefit shareholders despite the -13.8% effective tax rate, AFUDC inflates 8.2% of net income, and wildfire charges classified as 'non-recurring' have now appeared in three of the past five years.