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AFL 10-K Analysis: $4.7B Capital Return Machine Running on Borrowed Time

Aflac returned $4.7 billion to shareholders in FY2025 — 185% of its operating cash flow. For a 43-year Dividend Aristocrat trading at 14.7x adjusted earnings, this looks like disciplined capital allocation at a bargain. But the 10-K reveals the cash engine funding this generosity is shrinking: Japan profit remittances fell 6.1%, reported margins depend on $529 million in actuarial gains, and a $553 million annual gap between subsidiary cash generation and parent-level distributions is widening each year.

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15 min

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