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Alphabet Inc.

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Analysis

GOOGL 10-K Analysis: 32% Earnings Growth, Zero Incremental Free Cash Flow

Alphabet reported $132.2 billion in net income for FY2025 — a record. But the 10-K reveals $149.1 billion in contractually locked purchase commitments, $24.1 billion in unrealized equity gains inflating headline growth, and a tax timing benefit that boosted cash flow by $13.5 billion. Adjusted earnings grew 15.6%, not 32%, and free cash flow was flat. The investment question: can Google Cloud's 956-basis-point margin expansion convert the largest corporate infrastructure buildout in history into returns?

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15 min

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Research

HBM Demand: What 135 SEC Filings Reveal About AI's Memory Chokepoint

High-bandwidth memory powers every AI accelerator from NVIDIA's H100 to AMD's MI300X—but the most revealing data about HBM supply geography doesn't appear in any chip maker's filing. It's in FormFactor's annual report, where a probe card geographic revenue table shows South Korea overtook the United States as the dominant buyer of HBM test equipment in 2025, adding $53 million while US revenues fell $32 million in a single year. This analysis cross-reads 135 operational SEC filings across four companies and three SIC codes—tracing HBM demand from process equipment through memory production, test infrastructure, and demand driver—to surface a supply chain concentration that no single 10-K can reveal.

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Basel III Endgame: What 419 SEC Filings Reveal

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Research

AI Infrastructure Capex: What 863 SEC Filings Reveal

AI infrastructure capex has crossed from strategic investment into arms race. Amazon's FY 2025 10-K records $128.3 billion in capital expenditures — up 65% in a single year. Alphabet spent $91.4 billion, up 74%. Meta committed $115-135 billion for 2026 before a dollar has been spent. Reading all five filings together reveals three structural patterns investors are still underestimating: the spending is accelerating, not plateauing; Microsoft's reported margins already show the cost compression that peers only discuss in the future tense; and NVIDIA's own 10-K names the same data centers and power grids that hyperscalers are racing to build as the binding constraint on its revenue growth — completing a self-reinforcing cycle that no single filing captures alone.

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Research

Cybersecurity Incidents: What 916 SEC 8-K Filings Reveal

On March 11, 2026, Stryker Corporation filed its first 8-K disclosing a cybersecurity incident that disrupted its global Microsoft environment — one of 916 material cybersecurity 8-K disclosures filed with the SEC in the past 12 months. But the initial 8-K is the least financially informative disclosure in the entire lifecycle. Cross-company analysis of four non-tech companies — a medical device maker, a donut chain, a mortgage lender, and a hospital system — reveals that the most financially specific SEC disclosures appear 12–24 months after the incident. Insurance recoveries of $21.5M to $35M, class action consolidations, and settlement disclosures mark the true cost — and they arrive long after the headlines fade.

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Lithium Battery Supply Chain: What 351 SEC Filings Reveal

Across 351 operational SEC filings, the lithium battery supply chain reveals a counter-intuitive pattern: falling lithium prices did not flow evenly through the value chain. Albemarle grew volumes 8% even as pricing collapsed $627 million. Rivian grew deliveries while flagging battery supply as a material risk. But Aspen Aerogels — the company whose thermal barriers physically protect lithium-ion batteries — lost 45% of its revenue despite holding multi-year OEM contracts. Mid-chain component suppliers absorbed the worst of the shock.

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Data Center Power Demand: What 404 SEC Filings Reveal

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