AVB 10-K Analysis: Three Capital Bets on One Balance Sheet
AvalonBay Communities grew FFO per share 3.8% to $11.41 and launched a $488 million buyback program — its first ever — yet the stock fell 18%. The 10-K filing reveals AVB is running three simultaneous capital allocation experiments through a single balance sheet that swung from net cash to net debt in one year. With $3.3B under construction, $1.5B+ in near-term refinancings, and ~$0.24/share of hidden 2026 headwinds, the math either compounds or collapses.