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BlackRock

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Analysis

BLK 10-K Analysis: Private Markets Revenue Triples as Free Cash Flow Collapses

BlackRock reported record $14 trillion in AUM, record $698 billion in net inflows, and tripled its private markets revenue to $653 million quarterly after the HPS acquisition. But the same 10-K reveals GAAP EPS fell 16% to $35.31, free cash flow dropped 24% to $3.55 billion, and dividends now consume 91% of remaining cash. A 5-component decomposition of the $12.78-per-share GAAP-adjusted gap reveals that only $3 is genuinely temporary — the other $10 represents real, recurring costs hidden behind management's preferred metric.

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15 min
Analysis

IAU 10-K Analysis: Why a 65% Gold Rally Delivered 4 Different Returns

iShares Gold Trust posted $24.3 billion in FY2025 'net income' with zero revenue, zero cash flow, and zero employees. Gold rose 65%. The trust's NAV doubled. But the 10-K filing reveals four different answers to the question every gold investor should ask: what did I actually earn? We decompose IAU's record year into four components — gold price appreciation, per-share value capture, flow amplification from 229.5 million new shares, and BlackRock's $124 million in guaranteed fee extraction.

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13 min
Analysis

SLV 10-K Analysis: Why 83% of the Silver Trust's $21B Earnings Are Paper

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reported $21.3 billion in net income for FY2025 — on paper, more profitable than 98% of the S&P 500. But 83.3% of that income is unrealized silver gains that never produced a dollar of cash. Meanwhile, each share's silver backing has eroded 9.3% since inception because the trust sells silver to pay BlackRock's 0.50% annual fee — a fee BlackRock can raise without shareholder approval. The filing reveals a structurally simple but economically powerful fee extraction mechanism operating behind one of America's most popular commodity investments.

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12 min

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Research

HBM Demand: What 135 SEC Filings Reveal About AI's Memory Chokepoint

High-bandwidth memory powers every AI accelerator from NVIDIA's H100 to AMD's MI300X—but the most revealing data about HBM supply geography doesn't appear in any chip maker's filing. It's in FormFactor's annual report, where a probe card geographic revenue table shows South Korea overtook the United States as the dominant buyer of HBM test equipment in 2025, adding $53 million while US revenues fell $32 million in a single year. This analysis cross-reads 135 operational SEC filings across four companies and three SIC codes—tracing HBM demand from process equipment through memory production, test infrastructure, and demand driver—to surface a supply chain concentration that no single 10-K can reveal.

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9 min
Research

Basel III Endgame: What 419 SEC Filings Reveal

Basel III endgame never became law, yet 419 substantive SEC filings prove it functioned as an operative market signal across three distinct industries simultaneously. Morgan Stanley's 10-K disclosed that its risk-weighted assets would rise 40% under the Expanded Approach—nearly three times State Street's 15%—while the G-SIB surcharge offset buried in that same filing contradicts the universal narrative that large trading banks faced unlimited capital pain. The real story emerges only from reading across the chain: bank capital constraints flow downstream through ICE's clearing infrastructure and into the Agency MBS market where mortgage REITs like Bimini Capital hold assets.

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9 min
Research

AI Infrastructure Capex: What 863 SEC Filings Reveal

AI infrastructure capex has crossed from strategic investment into arms race. Amazon's FY 2025 10-K records $128.3 billion in capital expenditures — up 65% in a single year. Alphabet spent $91.4 billion, up 74%. Meta committed $115-135 billion for 2026 before a dollar has been spent. Reading all five filings together reveals three structural patterns investors are still underestimating: the spending is accelerating, not plateauing; Microsoft's reported margins already show the cost compression that peers only discuss in the future tense; and NVIDIA's own 10-K names the same data centers and power grids that hyperscalers are racing to build as the binding constraint on its revenue growth — completing a self-reinforcing cycle that no single filing captures alone.

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9 min
Research

Cybersecurity Incidents: What 916 SEC 8-K Filings Reveal

On March 11, 2026, Stryker Corporation filed its first 8-K disclosing a cybersecurity incident that disrupted its global Microsoft environment — one of 916 material cybersecurity 8-K disclosures filed with the SEC in the past 12 months. But the initial 8-K is the least financially informative disclosure in the entire lifecycle. Cross-company analysis of four non-tech companies — a medical device maker, a donut chain, a mortgage lender, and a hospital system — reveals that the most financially specific SEC disclosures appear 12–24 months after the incident. Insurance recoveries of $21.5M to $35M, class action consolidations, and settlement disclosures mark the true cost — and they arrive long after the headlines fade.

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8 min
Research

Lithium Battery Supply Chain: What 351 SEC Filings Reveal

Across 351 operational SEC filings, the lithium battery supply chain reveals a counter-intuitive pattern: falling lithium prices did not flow evenly through the value chain. Albemarle grew volumes 8% even as pricing collapsed $627 million. Rivian grew deliveries while flagging battery supply as a material risk. But Aspen Aerogels — the company whose thermal barriers physically protect lithium-ion batteries — lost 45% of its revenue despite holding multi-year OEM contracts. Mid-chain component suppliers absorbed the worst of the shock.

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9 min
Research

Data Center Power Demand: What 404 SEC Filings Reveal

Data center power demand appears in 404 SEC filings across 30+ companies and 15 industries, but the most important pattern isn't the breadth — it's the convergence. Bitcoin miners are becoming data center landlords. Solar infrastructure companies are rewiring for server racks. A semiconductor firm cut 19% of its workforce to chase power conversion chips. From opposite ends of the value chain, companies that historically had nothing to do with computing are reorganizing around a single commodity: electricity access.

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8 min
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