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Canadian Pacific Kansas City

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Analysis

CP 10-K Analysis: The $4.7B Bet Against CPKC's Own Cash Flow

Canadian Pacific Kansas City reported 13% EPS growth and returned $4.7 billion to shareholders in FY2025 — the most aggressive capital return of any Class I railroad. But the 10-K reveals that $4.7 billion was 215% of free cash flow, funded by $3.1 billion in new debt and a one-time asset sale. The operating ratio improvement of 160 basis points was inflated by non-recurring tailwinds worth 80-100bps. Revenue per RTM was flat. And the Mexican concession's exclusivity expires in 2037, not 2047. This is a company betting its future earnings will prove today's cash generation was a trough.

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15 min

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