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Capital One

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Analysis

COF 10-K Analysis: The $20.7B Provision Illusion Behind a 60x P/E

Capital One reported the fastest revenue growth (+37%) among large US banks and the highest P/E ratio (60x) — simultaneously. The 10-K reveals a $20.7 billion day-1 CECL provision, 92.3% concentrated in a single segment, that makes the $4.03 EPS the most misleading number in banking. Free cash flow tells a different story: $48.29 per share, a 20% yield. This analysis decomposes the four components of COF's earnings illusion and models when 60x becomes 15x.

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15 min

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