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CMI

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Analysis

CMI 10-K Analysis: $770M Destroyed, But a Profitability Multiplier Emerges

Cummins destroyed $770 million on its hydrogen bet in just 14 months — yet its most profitable segment is growing faster than it can build capacity. The 10-K reveals a structural shift Wall Street overlooked: every dollar moving from CMI's declining truck business to power generation earns 2.1× the EBITDA margin. But Accelera's remaining battery business still burns ~$500M annually, roughly offsetting the margin multiplier's benefit. At 14.6× trailing EBITDA, the stock prices in flat earnings — the question is whether the power gen transformation breaks through before the truck trough deepens further.

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15 min

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