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Ford Motor Company

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F 10-K Analysis: The $9 Billion Cash Flow Illusion Behind Ford's 5.7% Yield

Ford Motor Company reported $12.5 billion in free cash flow for FY 2025 — an 85% surge that covers the dividend 4.2 times over. But the 10-K reveals management's own adjusted FCF is $3.5 billion, covering the dividend at just 1.17x. The $9 billion gap, driven by Ford Credit's $162 billion balance sheet, is the most important thing about Ford's financials that standard screeners miss. Add in $14.8 billion in EV write-offs, $2 billion in tariff drag, and a $17.2 billion warranty reserve growing 22% annually, and the 5.7% yield anchoring the bull case has virtually no margin of safety.

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15 min

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