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Fortinet

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Analysis

FTNT 10-K Analysis: $7B Deferred Revenue Flywheel Meets Rising Cloud Costs

Fortinet's 80.5% gross margin is one of the highest in enterprise technology. But the FY 2025 10-K reveals a cost inflection that blended margins conceal: service COGS grew 1.5x faster than service revenue, flipping from tailwind to headwind in a single year. Meanwhile, the company sits on $7.05 billion in deferred revenue — more than a full year of sales already paid for but not yet recognized — generating cash 26% ahead of GAAP earnings. With 98.1% of free cash flow consumed by buybacks and a 37-76% CapEx increase guided for FY2026, Fortinet is simultaneously more valuable than its P/E suggests and more vulnerable than its gross margin implies.

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14 min

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