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LOW 10-K Analysis: Why $10B in Acquisitions Are Masking a Recovering Core Business

Lowe's reported a 74-basis-point operating margin decline in its FY2025 10-K, and the stock dropped 17% on cautious guidance. But the segment footnote tells a different story: core retail gross margins improved 53 basis points — three times the headline gain. The real threat isn't acquisition dilution. It's employee compensation absorbing 78.5% of incremental retail revenue, producing a negative incremental operating margin of -12.0%. With $10.8 billion in buyback authorization sitting unused and ROIC declining for three consecutive years, the investment case hinges on whether three variables — acquisition margins, labor costs, and buyback timing — can all move favorably at once.

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15 min

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