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LULU 10-K Analysis: The -57% Incremental Margin Hiding a Geographic Transformation

Lululemon generated $515 million of new revenue in FY 2025 and destroyed $291 million of operating income doing it — a -57.4% incremental operating margin that looks like structural decline. But the segment data tells a different story: China Mainland produced a 48.6% incremental operating margin on $393 million of growth, meaning each new dollar of Chinese revenue produced nearly 50 cents of operating income. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court's IEEPA invalidation created a $216M contingent refund absent from guidance. At 13.1× trailing earnings — the same multiple as cyclical truck manufacturer PCAR — the market prices permanent decline when the filing shows a geographic earnings quality transformation already in motion.

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15 min

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Cybersecurity Incidents: What 916 SEC 8-K Filings Reveal

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