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Public Service Enterprise Group

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PEG 10-K Analysis: $26M FCF, $25B Capex, and the Funding Gap Nobody Models

Public Service Enterprise Group earned $26 million in free cash flow in FY2025. The company just committed to a $22.5-25.5 billion capital plan requiring $4.8 billion per year — a 47% increase from current levels. The 10-K reveals the debt-funded share of investment rises from 38% to 53% at plan-level spending, creating hidden leverage acceleration masked by the headline net debt/EBITDA improvement. Meanwhile, PSEG Power's genuine 4.7x earnings improvement is invisible behind GAAP volatility, and New Jersey's permanent summer shutoff moratorium has pushed bad debt reserves to 11.6% of gross receivables — 2-3x the utility industry norm.

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15 min

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