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Sempra

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Analysis

Sempra 10-K Analysis: $18B Balance Sheet Reset, Two P/E Ratios, One Binary Bet

Sempra reported a 36% earnings decline, negative $6 billion in free cash flow, and a 94% dividend payout ratio — yet the stock barely moved. The 10-K reveals why: $1.1 billion in non-recurring charges create the widest GAAP-to-adjusted earnings gap (73%) among major US utilities, producing two contradictory P/E ratios from the same filing. At $88 per share, Sempra trades at either 32x or 19x earnings. Meanwhile, the KKR SI Partners deal is not just $10 billion in cash — $7.9 billion in debt deconsolidation makes it an $18 billion balance sheet event. But California's regulatory disallowances have escalated from zero to $676 million in three years, and wildfire strict liability adds an unquantified overhang. One asset sale close decides which Sempra investors actually own.

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15 min

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