SPGI 10-K Analysis: The Three-Tailwind Trap Behind Record Margins
S&P Global posted a 42.2% operating margin in FY2025 — the highest since the IHS Markit merger. Two weeks later, the stock dropped 18%. The 10-K reveals that two definitively non-recurring tailwinds — $133M in merger cost elimination and a $273M disposition gain — account for approximately 270 of the 290-basis-point margin expansion, while $1,064M in annual deal amortization suppresses a 50% adjusted margin by 8 percentage points. Ratings generates 45.6% of segment profit at a 63.8% margin, powered by a 28% billed issuance surge that may not sustain. The market repriced growth from 14% to 9-10% — directionally correct, but the underlying quality may be mispriced from both directions.