TER 10-K Analysis: A Cyclical Duopoly Priced as a Secular AI Winner
Teradyne reported $3.19 billion in FY2025 revenue, up 13.1% — but Taiwan alone generated 149% of that growth. The 10-K reveals $1.8 billion in non-cancelable supply chain commitments, $231 million in cumulative Robotics losses, and deteriorating cash quality masked by reduced AR factoring. At 55.6x earnings, the market prices secular AI growth from a business with a 0.4% five-year revenue CAGR.